The NFL can be a brutal reminder of just how hard it is to win in this league. While things could be lining up nicely for some teams, the entire operation can come crumbling down at any minute. That's just how this league works sometimes.
With training camp on the horizon, teams are gearing up for the dog days of summer, as this is where the true work is done ahead of preseason and then making our way to the regular season in September.
Let's talk about the dark side for a little bit and dive into the one nightmare scenario for every AFC team ahead of training camp.
The worst nightmare scenario for every AFC team as training camp approaches
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson again struggles to stay healthy as talks of regression hit
It would almost be a repeat of the 2025 season. The nightmare scenario for 2026 would be if Lamar Jackson not only isn't staying on the field, but he also continues to look far from his prime self. This would spark talks of if he's regressing or not, and with the style of play he has, it would not be the biggest shock in the world if a regression was coming soon.
Cincinnati Bengals - Revamped defense isn't enough as team misses playoffs fourth year in a row
The entire idea of this team revamping the defense would be to get back into the playoffs, which is a place they have not been since the 2022 NFL Season. Missing the playoffs four years in a row would create some extremely uncomfortable conversations.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Pittsburgh wins 10 games and again loses in the Wild Card Round
This would be a nightmare, as it would accomplish absolutely nothing and again put the Pittsburgh Steelers in no man's land. This team would benefit the most if they totally collapsed and were almost forced to embrace the much-needed rebuild.
Cleveland Browns - The Browns win more than expected and land at a lower NFL Draft pick
The Cleveland Browns aren't going to be very good in 2026, and that could help them secure a higher pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but if the Browns win more than expected, it could create a situation where their first-round pick just isn't nearly as high as they expected it to be, perhaps taking them out of the running for a top quarterback prospect.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars - Team takes a 2025 Commanders step back in 2026
The Washington Commanders came out of nowhere in the 2024 NFL Season, winning 12 games and coming within one game of the Super Bowl. Similarly, the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars came out of nowhere, winning 13 games and getting into the playoffs.
The nightmare scenario here would be if the 2026 Jaguars have the same fate as the 2025 Commanders - a complete 180 and getting into a place where they're all of a sudden back at square one at the worst possible time.
Houston Texans - Texans are more obviously being held back by CJ Stroud in another early playoff exit season
CJ Stroud has been average the past two seasons, but this Houston Texans roster is the best it's been, perhaps in franchise history. The nightmare scenario in 2026 would be if Stroud is the legitimate player holding this team back.
General Manager Nick Caserio improved this roster in the offseason, signing two veteran starting offensive linemen and adding David Montgomery via trade. This roster is simply excellent and plenty good enough to win the Super Bowl, but Stroud has to play better. If not, it'd be a disaster, period.
Indianapolis Colts - Colts again win eight or nine games and just barely miss the playoffs
In what could be a repeat of the 2025 season, the Indianapolis Colts nightmare scenario would be another eight or nine-win season, as it is close to the playoffs, but on the other hand, it feels so far away from being a legitimate contender. This could be the precise definition of being in no man's land in today's NFL.
The Colts did begin the 2025 season 7-1, so perhaps there is hope of a rebound in 2026.
Tennessee Titans - Cam Ward fails to take a notable step forward
The idea with second-year quarterbacks that show promise as a rookie is that year two is a nice building block for what could be an awesome future. The Tennessee Titans have enough in place for Cam Ward to make a year two leap, but what if he doesn't?
It would soon cast a massive cloud of doubt over Ward and if he can actually be a legitimate franchise quarterback. With how loaded the AFC is with young quarterback talent, Ward being able to develop could have the Titans on the cusp of being the next great team in the conference.
AFC East
New England Patriots - Regression is much more than expected as the team slips out of the playoffs and Drake Maye isn't the same
Much of what we have talked about with the New England Patriots this offseason has been centered around how easy the team's schedule was in 2025 and how likely it may be that the team regresses in the 2026 NFL Season. With New England now sporting one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, it's worth wondering if a regression could be on the table.
And, at worst, the regression ends up being so significant that the team not only misses the playoffs, but quarterback Drake Maye sees a decline in play and looks nothing like his near-MVP self from the 2025 season.
Buffalo Bills - New head coach Joe Brady quickly proves to be in way over his head
This is honestly the nightmare scenario for any year one head coach. A first-year head coach looking to be in way over his head is a death sentence for any NFL team. With how solid the Buffalo Bills have been, one would think that it'd be nearly impossible for this team to struggle, but the head coach does have a huge role in it all.
Brady not being cut out to be a head coach in this league could end up leading the Bills out of the playoffs for what would be the first time since Josh Allen's rookie season way back in the 2019 season.
Miami Dolphins - Dolphins win too many games and lose out on a top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft
Similar to the Browns situation, what if the Miami Dolphins end up winning, let's say, six games? They'd surely miss out on the top few quarterback prospects in the 2027 NFL Draft, and it would create a situation where the team misses out on the one player that could potentially change this franchise for the better.
New York Jets - See above
The New York Jets actually have a good bit of talent across the roster, but they desperately need a franchise quarterback, so this would be yet another team falling into this 'they won too many games' tier. Simply put, the worst teams in the AFC need to silently hope they don't win many games to increase their chances at landing one of the best quarterbacks in next year's NFL Draft class.
AFC West
Denver Broncos - Bo Nix just can't get to that next level and is maxed out as the team's starting quarterback
One criticism that Bo Nix had thrown at him coming into the NFL is that he had a lower ceiling due to the amount of college football he played and just won't ever be good enough than how he is now. Well, what if that does appear to be the case in 2026? If it is, the Broncos would certainly have a franchise quarterback, but he'd be someone the team may not be able to count on to take the team to the Super Bowl.
Los Angeles Chargers - Chargers again fail to break out of current tier and are again going one-and-done in the playoffs
The Los Angeles Chargers have won 11 games in each of the last two seasons, while also getting throttled in the Wild Card Roud in the process. That obviously isn't the goal of an NFL team, so the nightmare scenario here would be if that again does happen and the Chargers again leave meat on the bone.
If it happens for a third year in a row, it would soon become a very troubling trend.
Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes continues to produce at this modest level as Chiefs again fail to make the playoffs
On paper, Patrick Mahomes just has not been that special. Sure, the Kansas City Chiefs have been to two Super Bowls the past three seasons, winning one of them, but the efficiency has taken a notable nosedive these past few seasons. Even from a passer rating perspective, it's gone from 106 in the 2018-2022 seasons to 92 in the 2023-2025 seasons.
Mahomes threw 303.3 yards per game from '18-'22, but has thrown just 254.3 yards per game in the three years since. Across the board, he's just not the same, and the nightmare scenario would be a continuation of this in 2026. Mahomes not being that efficient and the Chiefs again missing the playoffs would see yet another year of the Mahomes/Reid era go down the drain at the worst time, as the duo is not getting any younger.
Las Vegas Raiders - Both Klint Kubiak and Fernando Mendoza look overwhelmed
It's not clear if Fernando Mendoza will start any games for the Las Vegas Raiders this coming season, but the nightmare scenario would be if both Mendoza and new head cooach Klint Kubiak look overwhelmed.
The idea if hiring Kubiak and drafting Mendoza is that this duo can be the ones that finally get this franchise back on track.