If there's one division across the entire NFL landscape that is more confusing than any other as we get into the meat of the 2026 offseason, it has to be the NFC South.
The NFC South has been the definition of "below average" for the past handful of seasons, with a combined record since 2023 (for all four teams) of 85-119. That means that over the last three seasons, the division's average record is roughly 7-10.
Case in point, the Carolina Panthers won the division last year with an 8-9 record, even though three teams in the division had that exact same record. You get the idea.
The point is, the NFC South doesn't really look that different going into the 2026 season compared to other recent years. How this division gets sorted out remains to be seen, but there are some intriguing wrinkles that have been added this offseason, and that's exactly what we're going to discuss as we rank each team worst to best approaching OTAs.
NFL Power Rankings: Saints look like a potential breakout team in 2026
4. Atlanta Falcons
As we get into the 2026 offseason, the NFC South becomes more and more difficult to project. The Atlanta Falcons are a great example of why this division is so tough to forecast for the upcoming season.
There is a lot to like about the Falcons based on some of the positive growth we saw last year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich took one of the worst pass-rushing units in the NFL in 2024 (31st in the league in sacks) to one of the best pass-rushing units in the league in 2025 (2nd-most sacks behind the Broncos).
The upward trajectory of the defense was nice to see, and a big reason why the Falcons wanted their incoming head coach to keep Ulbrich, regardless of who they ended up hiring. Kevin Stefanski obliged, but even with the positive developments defensively, the offense -- specifically the quarterback position -- remains the primary concern with this team going forward.
The Falcons got hot late last season to finish with 8 wins, but it was Kirk Cousins at the quarterback position. They're putting their faith in Michael Penix Jr., and may have to turn to Tua Tagovailoa at some point. They could finish with anywhere between 5-9 wins and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There was a point last season where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a very respectable 6-2 and looking like they could be one of the last teams standing in the NFC.
And then in the blink of an eye, they went from 6-2 to 7-9 entering the last week of the season, where they beat the Panthers in a low-scoring game. The Bucs scored the most points in the division last year, but they also gave up the most points.
The collapse of epic proportions in the second half of the season was so bad that a lot of folks in the NFL world thought Todd Bowles was going to have to face the music, but that obviously didn't happen. The Buccaneers are running it back in a lot of ways, but there are more question marks with this team than we've seen in quite some time.
Mike Evans is gone, and so is Lavonte David. The Bucs have given a "summer or fall" timeframe on Bucky Irving's return to action this season. Not exactly an inspiring update on one of their most important weapons offensively.
It might seem ridiculous to think this way, but whether or not Rueben Bain can be the type of player in Tampa Bay that we saw when he was at Miami can take this team to another level and vault them back into contention. They need a difference-maker on the defensive front that badly.
2. New Orleans Saints
It might be a hot take to put the Saints this high this early into the offseason, but sometimes you've got to take some shots and risk being wrong.
There was a lot of talk at this time a year ago that the Saints could be the worst roster in the entire league, but I wasn't buying that, and I didn't see it. And while the results were not there in the first half of the season, the fight certainly was from this Saints team. In the second half of the season, results started to follow.
The Saints put Tyler Shough in the lineup, and wound up winning four of their last five games, albeit not against the best competition.
Still, what Kellen Moore showed in his first year as an NFL head coach was impressive, and the progression of Shough could put the Saints in position to steal the division crown in 2026. It feels wide open for them to do just that. Getting Travis Etienne, David Anderson, and Jordyn Tyson as upgrades on offense will be massive for this team's chances of returning to the postseason.
1. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers' offensive consistency was not there in 2025, but we saw more glimpses from this team than ever before with Bryce Young under center. There is reason to believe this team can take that next big step in 2026, and Young will be at the center of it if it's going to happen.
He orchestrated six game-winning drives last season, had a career-high 23 touchdown passes, and was improved in almost any metric you can think of. Again, the all-around product offensively was still inconsistent, but the signs of growth were there.
If Young takes that next step, the Panthers' defense should be ready to support him. They were a markedly improved group last year, and they addressed their weak pass rush by going after Jaelan Phillips in NFL Free Agency. They also got the run-stuffing Lee Hunter as an absolute steal in the 2nd round of this year's draft.
The most intriguing addition to the Carolina defense, however, is Devin Lloyd, who racked up 81 total tackles last season, 5 interceptions, and 10 QB hits. He can do it all in the middle of the defense.
It's hard not to see the Panthers winning a game or two more than they did last year based on how the roster is looking at hte midway point of the offseason.