One week of the NFL preseason has now gone by, which means it's time for our biggest overreactions we can possibly think of.
Okay, all kidding aside, it feels like a great time to think of some new record predictions for each team. We've now gotten the chance to read the tea leaves from training camp and see the entire league take the field for preseason action, and while we are still doing a ton of projecting, we've got more data to make predictions for the 2025 NFL season.
What will your favorite team's record be this year? How will each division turn out? We're going to give our latest predictions for every team in every division and what we're expecting after one week of preseason games.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4
Even if you think the Chiefs are getting lucky in one-score games, fortune clearly has favored the team that is prepared situationally. The Chiefs are great in situational football, which is why they’ve been able to win so many games despite having a couple of really underwhelming seasons offensively in 2023 and 2024. To predict this team to lose more than four games feels foolish at this point, although most of the league is pleading for their downfall.
2. Denver Broncos: 12-5
The upstart Denver Broncos found a way to win 10 games last year, and unlike the Chiefs, they were an abysmal 1-6 in one-score games. The Broncos need to learn how to win situationally, but they did win nine games last year by nine or more points, and they might be even better defensively (they were 3rd last year in points allowed). The Broncos are a dangerous team if they can find more sustained success offensively.
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7
Call me crazy if you want, but I’ve hated almost the entire offseason for the Chargers so far. Especially after losing Rashawn Slater to a devastating Patellar tendon injury, the outlook for this team is a bit grim. The Chargers still have the coach and quarterback combination to beat a lot of bad teams, but even last year, they couldn’t really beat the good ones. This will be a huge test in year two for Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert.
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 7-10
The Raiders made substantial upgrades at head coach (Pete Carroll) and quarterback (Geno Smith) over what they had previously, but this is a ragtag group of guys defensively in 2025 that’s going to have to vastly outplay expectations. The Raiders need Ashton Jeanty to really be the guy they hoped he could be as a rookie and that offense will have to carry more weight than they’re capable of over 17 games.
AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills: 14-3
The Buffalo Bills should be primed for another huge year in the 2025 regular season. This is a team with very few weaknesses overall, and an MVP under center who can mask whatever weaknesses develop over the course of a season. It’s just going to take a debacle for this team to lose more than three games, or a lot of really bad luck. But this is the type of team they have on paper, regardless of how many they actually end up winning or losing.
2. New England Patriots: 9-8
I am buying the Patriots as a resurgent team here in 2025, but I want to pull back the reins just a little bit. The Pats still have areas on their roster right now that will likely cause them some trouble over the course of an entire year, but it’s not unreasonable to think this team could be this year’s version of what the Commanders were last year. They’ve got the coach and QB in place…we think.
3. Miami Dolphins: 8-9
I’m probably way too low on the Miami Dolphins, but I’m just really lukewarm on them, teetering on the colder side. The Dolphins are one or two injuries away from feeling like a big-time seller at the 2025 NFL trade deadline, then blowing things up a bit in the 2026 offseason. They’ve made some draft investments in the trenches, and if those guys progress quickly, this team could surprise some folks.
4. New York Jets: 5-12
Everything with the Jets this season is contingent on the quarterback position, and while Justin Fields helped the Steelers win a few games last season, it’s just hard to see this Jets team being a contender in the AFC East this year. I will say, a 5-12 record projection for them is harsh, and probably closer to a worst-case scenario than reality. They should be able to win 7 or 8 games, but that might be their ceiling this year.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans: 11-6
The Houston Texans are one of the teams this year that just feels like they’re going to be able to coast to a division title…again. The Texans were really disappointing last year, so they are fighting against themselves as much as their division foes. They need to live up to the lofty expectations, and it starts with quarterback CJ Stroud taking the offense to the next level.
2. Indianapolis Colts: 8-9
If there’s one team that could be an intriguing contender for the Texans to deal with in the AFC South this year, it might be the Indianapolis Colts. Shane Steichen might be feeling like he’s got his back against the wall a bit this year, but the Colts are giving him the freedom to put former 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson in a competition with Giants draft bust Daniel Jones for the starting job. A lot hinges on that decision but it could pay off huge for the Colts if one of those guys can play up to his potential.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-10
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a sneaky team in the AFC South this year. I’m not ready to put them in the mix as true division contenders just yet, but if the Texans struggle again, this is a team that has pieces in place to get hot, especially on offense. The Jaguars might have the best wide receiver duo in the league by the end of the year with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, and if Trevor Lawrence returns to form…look out.
4. Tennessee Titans: 4-13
What do we need to see from the Titans this year? Don’t let Cam Ward get destroyed, and figure out which young players are going to be foundation pieces for this roster going forward. General manager Mike Borgonzi has a lot of work to do, but a year of progression and learning for Cam Ward is really all this team can ask for at this point. The Titans may have one of the worst rosters in the league, so anything more than four wins should have Brian Callahan in the Coach of the Year conversation.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens: 15-2
There’s no such thing as a perfect roster in the NFL, but the Baltimore Ravens are pretty close. The Ravens are deep, they draft well, they hit in free agency, and they do as good of a job as anyone – or better – in player development. The Ravens are poised for a Super Bowl win this season and if I were a betting man, they would be the team I would bet on. Anything less than a dominant regular season and Super Bowl win is a failure for Baltimore this season.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
Although the Bengals had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season, their 9-8 record still felt like a bit of a fluke. Very rarely do we see teams play as good as the Bengals did offensively last season and still not make the playoffs. And a lot of folks probably felt like they could have made some noise had they gotten in and traveled to Buffalo in the Wild Card round instead of Denver. This is a team that should bounce back this coming season and be in the mix in January.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
At this point, who is really buying what the Steelers are selling? I get the idea of going after Aaron Rodgers and making a big play for DK Metcalf, but the Steelers are banking on an inexperienced offensive line and a lot of “has-beens” at the NFL level. Aaron Rodgers was solid for the Jets down the stretch last season, but does this team have the juice to play well over 17 games?
4. Cleveland Browns: 3-14
I don’t know if there’s any doubt at this point which team is going to get the #1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Cleveland Browns have an uninspiring quarterback battle (albeit, an entertaining one) and they’re already seeing injuries and off-field issues pop up before the regular season even starts. I’d bet on this team selling at the trade deadline and prepping for the 2026 NFL Draft by about Week 11.
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
We have a new wrinkle of worry for the Los Angeles Rams regarding quarterback Matthew Stafford, who seems to have Rams fans on the edge of their seats every offseason for one reason or another. In the near-ish future, I expect the Rams to move on from Stafford and go young at QB, but their Super Bowl hopes hinge on him being healthy this year. If he is ready to play, this team is going to be a force in the NFC.
2. San Francisco 49ers: 10-7
With the core of this 49ers roster back healthy and Robert Saleh back as defensive coordinator, I’m absolutely buying the 49ers as contenders in the NFC West once again. It does matter that they’re younger on defense, and it does matter that they have injury-prone players, but Kyle Shanahan is a great coach, and the top pieces on this team are elite-level players. Barring another extremely unlucky year injury-wise, I’m guessing this team is back in the playoffs.
3. Arizona Cardinals: 9-8
The Cardinals won eight games last year, and they’ll be expecting to do more damage than just winning nine in 2025. The big questions for this team are whether or not they can take the next step defensively, and if Marvin Harrison Jr. can be that go-to piece of the passing game. If those two things happen, the Cardinals are probably going to be closer to the realm of 11 wins this year, even in a very competitive division.
4. Seattle Seahawks: 6-11
I might be lower on the Seahawks than most, but I’m just not yet ready to buy the offseason moves they made offensively. They’ve got a new offensive system with Klint Kubiak coming in, and even with those concepts being familiar for Sam Darnold, how well is he going to play now that he’s no longer with Kevin O’Connell and throwing to the best group of skill players (arguably) in the NFC?
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles: 13-4
There’s always going to be a bit of a hangover after you win a Super Bowl, and that’s the crack in the door that other teams in the NFC East are going to try to exploit this coming season. The Eagles lost some guys on the offensive and defensive lines, and those losses in the trenches can be huge over the course of a season. The Eagles still have one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, however, and 12 or 13 wins is probably the floor.
2. Washington Commanders: 11-6
The Washington Commanders were the biggest shocker of the 2024 NFL season, going from picking 2nd overall in the 2025 NFL Draft to finishing second place in the NFC overall. The Commanders were outstanding a year ago, but how far ahead of their rebuild were they? And can they stay that far ahead? General manager Adam Peters still has a lot of work to do on his roster defensively, especially in the pass rush department. This is one of the oldest rosters in the NFL and we’ll see how that impacts the Commanders over an 18-week season.
3. Dallas Cowboys: 10-7
As much as you have to consider all of the drama with the Dallas Cowboys in the contract department, there is no doubt that this team plays really well when Dak Prescott is under center. In the regular season, at least. A healthy Prescott is a recipe for at least 10 wins, and if history is any indicator, probably closer to 12. The Cowboys added George Pickens this offseason to get a much-needed upgrade to their offensive weaponry, but can that defense hold up? And is Micah Parsons even going to play?
4. New York Giants: 8-9
The floor is raised for the New York Giants for one big reason – the defensive line. The Giants are a team that could be legitimately dangerous in the NFC East this season thanks to an elite pass rush. Everyone benefits from having a dominant pass rush. It can get your defense off the field quickly, help create more turnovers, and steal your offense extra possessions. Not to mention, closing out games…
NFC South
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11-6
Just like the Houston Texans in the AFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to have a rather clear path to winning their division this year. You’ve still got to go out and play the games, but the Bucs easily have the most complete roster in the NFC South, and it would require a debacle or lengthy injury list to keep them from winning the division. Maybe after next offseason, more teams in this division will be able to compete, but for now, the Bucs are running the South.
2. Atlanta Falcons: 7-10
The Falcons finally made some big-time investments in their pass rush this offseason by using 1st-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., and those two guys will have to grow up quickly. Michael Penix Jr. is entering his first year as the full-time starter for this Falcons team, and he’s got a great cast of playmakers around him to have early success. The Falcons need that defense to figure things out or they will be sending a decent draft pick to the Rams.
3. Carolina Panthers: 7-10
Even if we’re buying the Carolina Panthers offensive resurgence in 2025, they had the worst defense in the NFL last season, and that’s saying something. Ejiro Evero really needs his young players to develop, and the Panthers need their big-ticket free agent acquisitions to live up to those investments. This is a team that should be in a much better position than they were a season ago, but there are a lot of “what ifs”.
4. New Orleans Saints: 3-14
The Saints don’t exactly have the worst roster in the NFL, but they’ve got an arguably worse QB situation than even the Cleveland Browns, and that’s saying something. The Saints could end up being a big-time seller at the trade deadline and readying themselves to blow up the roster after 2025. Kellen Moore didn’t exactly inherit a sleeping giant, but the Saints clearly expect to be more competitive than the general NFL population expects them to be.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers: 12-5
I might have been a year early on the Green Bay Packers hype train as the Detroit Lions were clearly the best team in the NFC North last year, but that might not be the case in 2025. The Packers are loaded on both sides of the ball with the only real question mark on the roster being cornerback, and this is a team that turned the ball over a ton defensively last year anyway. The Packers have a darkhorse MVP candidate in Jordan Love, and their weaponry got a huge boost with the arrival of Matthew Golden.
2. Detroit Lions: 12-5
We’ll see how much it ends up truly affecting them, but the Lions losing both coordinators stings quite a bit. The injuries defensively last year were a major concern, and they’re already starting to pile up for this team again. It’s hard not to like the talent on this Lions roster overall, but there are glaring weaknesses in the depth department at certain spots, and it looks like they could take a slight step back in 2025.
3. Minnesota Vikings: 10-7
The Vikings are breaking in yet another new quarterback under Kevin O’Connell, but this is the one he and the front office hand-picked together. JJ McCarthy is a tremendous game-manager who came up clutch at times for Michigan, but he’s coming off of a major knee injury and is obviously a wild card going into the beginning of the season. Still, the Vikings have enough talent to win 10 games at a minimum.
4. Chicago Bears: 8-9
The Chicago Bears are really interesting on paper at the moment. They have last year’s #1 overall pick in Caleb Williams and a ton of exciting playmakers, but do they have the type of pass rush to make a deep run this season? Can they even finish above 4th place in their own division? A lot hinges on the expected breakthrough of Caleb Williams, but Ben Johnson is a play-caller, not a puppeteer. Williams has a lot to prove in 2025.