It was another wild weekend in the NFL with big matchups all across the league and teams making their last-minute pushes for the playoffs. As far as NFL picks and predictions are concerned, it was a pretty good week all around with a couple of surprises. The Denver Broncos were unable to stay in the thick of the AFC playoff race with a disappointing loss at home against the Patriots. The Detroit Lions clinched their first-ever NFC North division title.
Playoff spots have been clinched by a variety of teams at this point but there is still a lot up for grabs. What's going to happen in Week 17 with just two games remaining in the 2023 season? Let's look at our penultimate NFL picks and predictions for this regular season.
NFL picks and score predictions for Week 18
New York Jets (6-9) @ Cleveland Browns (10-5)
Thursday, December 28, 8:15 PM ET
As I sit here, it's incredibly hard to believe (and also incredibly fun) what the Cleveland Browns are doing right now. With no Nick Chubb, no Deshaun Watson, no Jack Conklin, and other injury and quarterback issues along the way, the Browns have managed to win 10 games and set themselves up in a great position for the playoffs.
The job that Joe Flacco has done after signing onto the Browns’ practice squad earlier this season is nothing short of miraculous. Flacco was signed off his couch to come and help keep the Browns’ ship afloat, and he’s done more than that. He’s actually looked phenomenal out there, and the chemistry he’s developed with Amari Cooper early on is fun to see.
As good as the New York Jets’ defense has been this year, you can’t help but trust the Browns and Joe Flacco quite a bit more here.
Perhaps the Jets will be looking at what Flacco has done for the Browns and think to themselves, “I shoulda got that…” Flacco is looking like the one that got away for the Jets at this point. It’s tough to see how well this team has played at times, even with incompetence offensively for most of the year.
I think the Browns, playing at home on a short week, keep their hot streak going.
Prediction: Browns win 26-16
Detroit Lions (11-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-5)
Saturday, December 30, 8:15 PM ET
We’re going to have to take a moment before we get into this matchup to give the Detroit Lions their flowers a little bit. The Lions have never won the NFC North. The last time the Lions were division champions, it was 1993 and they were playing in the NFC Central.
You can’t say enough about the job Dan Campbell has done in Detroit, and now this team is shaping up to host its first-ever playoff game at Ford Field. What an amazing achievement.
And the Lions are for real. This team is one of the most exciting in the entire NFL and offensively, they are going to be a problem in the NFC playoff race. One of the teams they might see at some point in the playoffs is the Dallas Cowboys, who have been one of the most well-oiled machines in the NFL for the majority of the year. As good as the Cowboys have been, that Detroit offensive line and arsenal of weapons will give Dan Quinn and his defense a ton of fits.
But as we saw against the Dolphins, Quinn's defense is up to the task against a tough offense. Although the Cowboys fell short, they held the Dolphins nearly 10 points under their 2023 season average.
Can they catch the Lions napping coming off of a hard-fought win? They're favored by 5.5 points in the early betting lines.
Prediction: Cowboys win 27-23
New England Patriots (4-11) @ Buffalo Bills (9-6)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
The Buffalo Bills avoided certain disaster on Saturday night as they traveled to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers, and nearly let the Bolts hand them a loss on their way out. A loss in Los Angeles would have been catastrophic to the Bills, who have virtually no margin for error right now, but that’s really true for a lot of teams in the AFC playoff race.
But instead of a heartbreaking loss, the Buffalo Bills obviously got themselves a big win on the road, and they return home for Week 17 against the New England Patriots with a 9-6 record and a chance to get to 10 wins against a Patriots team that has obviously struggled all season.
But in the back of everyone’s minds? The Patriots don’t have many wins this season, but one of them did come against the Buffalo Bills. They beat the Bills back in Week 7 in New England. But this situation is obviously very different. The Bills are playing with their backs against the wall right now and they’ve responded well after looking like fish in a barrel just a few weeks back.
I think we’re going to see a focused Buffalo team, and I think we’re going to see them make a bit of a statement in this matchup.
I don’t expect this one to be overly close and neither do the oddsmakers. The Bills are favored by 13.5 points at home in this one.
Prediction: Bills win 34-20
Atlanta Falcons (7-8) @ Chicago Bears (6-9)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
The Atlanta Falcons are staying alive here late in the season, and they got the job done in Week 16 against a really hot Indianapolis Colts team. Although the Colts have been playing above expectations with backup QB Gardner Minshew out there leading the charge, the Falcons don’t exactly have a stable, solidified QB situation themselves.
It was Taylor Heinicke getting the call in Week 16 for the Falcons, and he did his job well completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with one touchdown and no interceptions.
Bijan Robinson had himself a day with 122 yards from scrimmage, Kyle Pitts caught a touchdown, Tyler Allgeier had some big plays, and the Falcons won the turnover battle. The problem is, this Atlanta team seemingly needs too much to go right in order to win games. They are impressive when they run the ball effectively, but this team is so hot and cold. Even coming off of a 29-10 win against a quality opponent, what do we expect of the Falcons going on the road in Chicago?
This game could be really interesting because the Bears have played pretty well in the second half of the season. Since Justin Fields came back healthy and Montez Sweat has been added to the roster, the Bears are playing much better football overall. And in this matchup, they’ll be looking to play some spoiler.
Every time I try to buy into the Falcons, they let me down. I like Atlanta in this game, but I’m picking the home team.
Prediction: Bears win 24-21
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
The Indianapolis Colts don’t have any time to feel sorry for themselves after getting their butts kicked against the Atlanta Falcons this past week. Right now, no one in the AFC playoff race can really afford to lose because everybody is jockeying for positioning, and the Colts needed that win against Atlanta to keep pace with a number of other teams.
Fortunately for them, their playoff chances aren’t dead, but they are going to have to come home now against the Las Vegas Raiders and find a way to stay in the thick of things.
A win against the Raiders might not be the easy feat it seems to be on paper. The Raiders have not been great this season, by any means, but they’ve had games like we saw a couple of weeks ago where the offense cannot be stopped (and scores 63 points).
As you look at this matchup from an NFL picks perspective, take into account the fact that teams traveling from the West to play in the 1:00 ET window don’t often fare very well. I don’t have stats to back that up, but it’s typically really hard for teams to come across the country and play well in that time window, or that’s what it feels like.
The Colts are three-point favorites in this matchup but I think the Raiders convince me that they come through with a clutch win.
Prediction: Raiders win 23-20
Los Angeles Rams (8-7) @ New York Giants (5-10)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
I am all-in on this year’s Los Angeles Rams. I simply am enamored by this team. The Rams may not be overly spectacular, but they’ve got a coach and core of players – including their QB and top offensive playmaker – who have all been to the mountaintop before. That’s how this young Rams roster – one that is completely reshaped from what we saw win the Super Bowl just two seasons ago – climb its way into the playoff conversation this season.
The Rams dealt with so many injuries last year. General manager Les Snead had to sit on his hands this offseason. There were rumors of retirement for all of Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Donald. And ultimately, all roads have led to the Rams being in a great position here with two games remaining. They took care of the Saints in Week 16. The Lions took care of the Vikings.
The only way this past weekend could have been better is if the Seahawks had dropped that close game against the Titans.
And with all due respect to what the New York Giants have accomplished over the last month, I don’t view them as much of a threat in this game. Even playing at home. Don’t get me wrong – anything can happen. I just don’t see how the Rams come out and lay an egg in this one.
Typically I don’t like projecting road teams coming from the West to have huge performances against East Coast teams, but I could see the Rams, with the way they’ve played lately, being an exception.
Prediction: Rams win 33-17
Arizona Cardinals (3-12) @ Philadelphia Eagles (11-4)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
Jonathan Gannon and the Arizona Cardinals are heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, who got a much-needed win on Christmas Day against the New York Giants.
But it was a hard-fought win, to be sure.
The Eagles have been laboring for so much of the season, and although you could easily blame the defense for it, there’s no doubt that the offense has had its share of struggles as well. They almost gave up that game on Monday against the New York Giants thanks to a pick-six and a number of offensive miscues.
At this point, I think it’s a fair question to wonder whether or not the Eagles are a true contender in the NFC. That seems like a super hot take considering they were in the Super Bowl last year, and of course they could get hot at any point, but there’s just something off about this team that gives me pause.
Now, for this particular game, I do think the Eagles are going to take care of business against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have shown some impressive fight throughout this season, but they haven’t been able to finish many games. Right now, they’re closing in on potentially stealing that first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Prediction: Eagles win 31-17
New Orleans Saints (7-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
The New Orleans Saints are still in it right now, but they are hanging on by a thread. Their loss on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Rams last week was pretty crippling, especially with everything else that transpired in the NFC South in the next couple of days.
The Saints have been a hard team to figure out all season. Derek Carr put up a bunch of stats in that game against the Rams but they all ended up ringing hollow. Ultimately, not making the playoffs after the investment the Saints made in him would be a terrible disappointment. Especially as “weak” as the NFC South has been this season, it would be a bitter pill to have to swallow.
And we’re going to get some real clarity in Week 17 as the Saints head to Tampa Bay to take on Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. Obviously, this game will have massive implications on the NFC South division race as a whole.
The early betting line has the Buccaneers favored by two points in this one, but I think they could get a boost as the week progresses. I don’t see it getting above 3.5 points, though, but I do think I’m taking the Bucs by four here.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 27-23
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders (4-11)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
The Washington Commanders nearly completed an improbable comeback this past weekend against the New York Jets.
It would have been a hilariously bad collapse by the Jets if they hadn’t been able to find a way to win, because the Commanders erased a 20-point halftime deficit against Trevor Siemian, who was just picked up by the Jets a few weeks back.
We got to see Jacoby Brissett in that game for the Commanders, and you can’t help but wonder if we’re going to see him for the remainder of the season. I think the Commanders owe it to themselves to get the most out of the investment they’ve made in Brissett, and give him a shot to show what he can do in these final couple of weeks.
This is a team headed for major changes in the offseason, it appears.
Unfortunately, the Commanders are playing host to arguably the best team in the NFL in Week 17. I’ll reiterate that I typically think weird things are going to happen when you have West Coast teams coming to play in the 1:00 window on the East, but I don’t know if the rules really apply to the 49ers, do they?
The 49ers are a well-oiled machine. They are 13.5-point favorites in this matchup and I think that’s being generous to the Commanders as the home team.
Prediction: 49ers win 37-17
Carolina Panthers (2-13) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
The Jacksonville Jaguars are absolutely imploding right now. After starting off this season looking like one of the top up-and-coming teams in the AFC, the Jags have been free-falling. Sky-diving. They are Clark Griswold on the slicked up sled heading toward Wal Mart.
The Buccaneers dog-walked the Jaguars on Sunday and raised some serious questions about Jacksonville’s legitimacy in the AFC playoff race. Ultimately, the team playing like this has led them to a really sticky situation. Not only are the Jaguars free falling, but they’ve free fallen into a three-way situation at 8-7 in the AFC South with the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts.
The last couple of weeks of the season are really shaping up to be fascinating in that division.
On paper, this game at home for the Jaguars would seem to be a gimme. But I don’t think it’s going to be at all. Not with the way they’ve been playing. And the Panthers were knocking on the door of a win this past weekend against the Packers. They put up 30 points.
I think with how bad the Jaguars have played lately, we could see a cat on cat crime here with the Panthers play spoiler.
Prediction: Panthers win 28-26
Miami Dolphins (11-4) @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
As good as the Miami Dolphins have been this season, there’s no doubt about it – they have beat up on some bad teams. Heading into Sunday’s action, the only team the Dolphins had beaten with a current winning record was – oh wait, nobody. Among the Dolphins’ 10 wins heading into their home game against the Cowboys on Sunday, their most quality win was a 70-20 blowout against the corpse of the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos have played well since that game, but that was the “signature” win on Miami’s schedule, a list of defeated foes that included the Patriots, Jets, Panthers, Giants, Commanders, Raiders, and Chargers.
A win against the Dallas Cowboys – a hard-fought win, at that – was a major turning point for this Dolphins team. They needed to prove they were battle-tested going into the playoffs. And they’re going to be tested even further against the Baltimore Ravens, who are arguably the best overall team in the AFC right now.
I think this tough Baltimore team will give the Dolphins fits playing at home. Maybe these two teams won't have to wait long to see each other again.
Prediction: Ravens win 24-23
Tennessee Titans (5-10) @ Houston Texans (8-7)
Sunday, December 31, 1:00 PM ET
The Houston Texans desperately need CJ Stroud back for this matchup. At 8-7, the Texans are now on the brink of potentially missing out on the postseason. Or, depending on whether or not you’re a “glass half full” person, they might be on the cusp of getting in.
In the “if the season ended today” world, the Texans would be IN as of right now. They are up by one in the fourth quarter and need to find a way to protect the lead. They’ve got a home game against the Tennessee Titans to get it done. And frankly, the Titans are exactly the type of team you don’t want to play at this time of year.
Although they’re only 5-10, ask the Miami Dolphins how dangerous the Titans are. And the Titans have taken the Texans and Seahawks to the brink in the two weeks since that win against the Dolphins. This is a solid team, and features a lot of players playing for their jobs in 2024.
I think the Texans are going to get all they can handle in this game, and if CJ Stroud comes out rusty at all, the Titans are going to make him pay. Houston is favored early by 4.5 points, but I think if you want to be perfect in your NFL picks, you’ve got to take some risks.
I’m taking the Titans on the road by a field goal.
Prediction: Titans win 24-21
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Sunday, December 31, 4:05 PM ET
Just when you thought the Pittsburgh Steelers were dead in the water, they come out and shock you with a blowout win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16.
How does anyone figure anything out in the NFL this season? There have been so many crazy moments across the league throughout the year. The Steelers are a team that, for the most part, has looked like a complete pretender. And yet, here they are, looking for their 9th win of the season and firmly in the AFC playoff mix.
Despite all of the Steelers’s struggles, you can’t help but admire the way Mike Tomlin gets his team ready week after week. Even with some cold streaks, when it matters most, he knows how to get this team into the win column. The same could be said of his opponent this week, Pete Carroll, who has done a tremendous job in his years at the helm of the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks have come through with some clutch wins lately over the Eagles and Titans, both by identical scores of 20-17.
Seattle is another one of those teams that just consistently seems to find a way. This should be one of the most interesting games of the week but I’m taking Seattle at home.
Prediction: Seahawks win 23-19
Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) @ Denver Broncos (7-8)
Sunday, December 31, 4:25 PM ET
For a bit there, the Denver Broncos looked like they were on their way to making NFL history and going from starting 1-5 this season to making the playoffs. But that slow start to the season has doomed the Broncos late. With no margin for error down the stretch, the floundering Broncos find themselves with just a five percent chance at making the postseason when a win against the New England Patriots would have boosted their chances up to 42 percent.
Sean Payton’s team has looked flat lately. They were downright terrible against the Lions a couple of weeks ago. Christmas Eve against the Patriots was torturous for the fan base.
Can the Broncos even stop the bleeding against a Chargers team that looked like it had a lot of fight against the Buffalo Bills?
It’s going to be interesting to see.
It’s also going to be interesting to see what the Broncos do with Russell Wilson in this game (and over the final two games). Are these going to be Wilson’s last two games as a Denver Bronco?
I think the Broncos get a win in their final home game of the season.
Prediction: Broncos win 27-16
Cincinnati Bengals (8-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)
Sunday, December 31, 4:25 PM ET
I think it’s safe to say this Kansas City Chiefs team is officially reeling.
It’s me, hi, I’m the problem, it’s me…
Off-the-field stories aside, the Chiefs have not looked anything like the same team that won the Super Bowl last year, even with seemingly an improved defense. An upset on Christmas Day by the Las Vegas Raiders not only kept the Raiders in the playoff hunt, but handed the Chiefs their sixth loss of the year.
Six losses in a season for a Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs team? I mean, what’s going on in Kansas City?
I guess the Chiefs are lucky this week’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals doesn’t involve Joe Burrow, right? The Bengals have proven they are still capable of hanging with some good teams with Jake Browning at the helm of the offense, but for the purposes of NFL picks and score predictions, you can’t help but err on the side of caution and predict the Chiefs to win this one, right?
This is a game the Chiefs now need to win not only for improving their playoff standing but also just to prove that they’ve still “got it”, right?
Prediction: Chiefs win 24-20
Green Bay Packers (7-8) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
Sunday, December 31, 8:20 PM ET
It was sort of a miracle that the Minnesota Vikings had managed to stay in the thick of things in the NFC playoff race for as long as they did. Now, I don’t mean to write the Vikings’ post-mortem for the 2023 season before it’s officially over, but you sort of get the vibe that this team’s effort against the Detroit Lions was a bit of a last gasp, in some ways.
The Vikings have suffered one too many injuries to be able to hang on this season, at least in my opinion. At one point in time, I felt like this Vikings team was better than the one that won 13 games a season ago, and I stand by that. If Kirk Cousins had stayed healthy, I think this team would be one of the most dangerous in the NFC.
As it stands, I don’t know that they’re going to be able to win a home game in a do-or-die situation against Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers feel like a team that could actually be a bit of a factor in the NFC playoffs, especially with the way some of the other division races are shaping up. And they’ve already got a win against the Detroit Lions this season.
I really like this Packers team, but even with the Vikings ailing at the QB position, it’s going to take a massive effort by Matt LaFleur and his crew to get this win on the road. Somehow, the Vikings are favored by two in the early betting lines.
Prediction: Packers win 23-21