Another week of NFL picks and score predictions has gone by, and once again, the NFL proved it is unpredictable at best. Although part of making NFL picks and predictions is taking risks. We predicted the Commanders to beat the Bears at home last week, and the Bears ended up winning by 20, but we predicted the Dolphins and Giants game almost down to the score, missing by just two points.
You take some risks, and you might get lucky week to week. Unfortunately, part of taking risks means risking egg on your face, and that's a bit what Week 5 of the NFL season was for these picks. But we can rebound in Week 6.
Let's jump into another fun week of NFL picks and score predictions, hoping to do better than we did in Week 5.
2023 NFL picks and predictions for Week 6 games
Week 6 byes: Packers, Steelers
Denver Broncos (1-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
The Kansas City Chiefs have continued to cement themselves as a force to be reckoned with after a blip on the radar back in the season opener against the Detroit Lions. Kansas City is back at home on a short week this week after dismantling the Minnesota Vikings, and what reason have the Denver Broncos given us to believe, in any sort of way, that they are going to end one of the longest losing streaks in franchise history?
The Broncos have not beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in eight years, ironically their last win against Kansas City coming on a Thursday night road matchup. Crazy things have happened in the NFL this season, but I wouldn't be staking my money or reputation on the Broncos coming up with an upset here.
The Broncos have never beaten Patrick Mahomes. They are fresh off of losing to the ghosts of their recent (dreadful) past, having dropped games against Nathaniel Hackett and the Jets, Vic Fangio and the Dolphins, as well as Josh McDaniels and the Raiders.
Hopefully, the Broncos don't let themselves get embarrassed (again) on National TV.
Prediction: Chiefs win 30-20
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @ Tennessee Titans (2-3)
Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (London)
We head back overseas this week for another AFC matchup, and fancy this: The Jaguars aren't playing in it.
The Titans will be this week's overseas AFC South representative, and they remain one of the more difficult teams in the NFL to figure out right now. The same could be said of their counterpart in this one, the Baltimore Ravens.
At this point, I think it's safe to say neither the Titans nor the Ravens have the most prolific passing attacks offensively. They are both ranked near the bottom of the league in total passing yards, but they do each have a surprising number of explosive passing plays. These are two teams that want to win lower-scoring games with tough defense, forced turnovers, and strong running games.
Which team is about to prevail? Vegas likes the Ravens by 3.5 points, and I think that sounds like a safe bet. The Ravens have more guys capable of taking over games offensively, starting with Lamar Jackson at the QB position. Unfortunately, we saw Jackson kind of blow it late against the Steelers this past weekend. He's not playing at his MVP level right now, but you never know when that guy is going to come to play.
The Titans haven't been efficient throwing the ball offensively, but they rank among the better teams in yards per pass attempt and explosive plays. They are tied for 4th in the NFL with four plays of 40-plus yards in the passing game. They have eight players offensively with a catch of 20-plus yards this season.
I think you could put the result of this game to a coin flip, to be honest.
Prediction: Ravens win 26-23
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) @ Chicago Bears (1-4)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
Are the Chicago Bears...back?
Who's winnin' in a 100-yard dash -- Justin Fields, or prime Mike Ditka? With Justin Fields getting a 10-yard head start...
Definitely prime Ditka.
Hopefully that vintage Saturday Night Live reference landed. If not, oh well. Justin Fields has been outstanding the last two games for the Bears, throwing for well over 600 passing yards and eight passing TDs. He had three touchdown passes in the first three weeks combined, and he's more than tripled his total in the last two weeks.
Needless to say, Justin Fields and DJ Moore have caught some fire together, and Moore is having huge success as his target share ramps up. He has over 100 yards receiving in three of the Bears' last four games.
This game will not be short on quality receiver play as the Vikings boast arguably the league's best in Justin Jefferson. But the Vikings are 1-4 already this season after losing just four games all of last year. Was the 2022 season. mirage? I tend to think it was, at least a little bit. The Vikings won so many one-score games last year, more than you typically see, and they've been struggling this season.
Can they go on the road and beat the Bears? With the way Chicago's defense has played most of the season, absolutely. FanDuel likes the Vikings by three on the road in this game. I am kind of buying this Bears offensive burst recently, especially after they put up 40 points on a Commanders defense whose front really gives teams fits.
I might take the Bears here in a slight upset.
Prediction: Bears win 30-27
Washington Commanders (2-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
This is one of those games that you don't really love from an NFL picks perspective. The Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons have been two of the more unpredictable teams in the NFL so far this season. After scoring a combined 13 points against the Lions and Jaguars, the Falcons managed to get back on track this week against the Houston Texans and get a much-needed win.
Atlanta has big-time playmakers offensively, but they are also dealing with the growing pains of young QB Desmond Ridder. Ridder has been good enough for the Falcons to have a winning record through five games, and the Falcons have one of the top 10 scoring defenses in the league right now.
That is underrated for a young QB to have as part of his growing process, but rookie Bijan Robinson has also been phenomenal for Atlanta.
The Washington Commanders have put forth some really explosive offensive outputs this season, but they have also put up some total duds. Last Thursday, they had a home game against the Chicago Bears and they got just absolutely whacked to the tune of 40-20.
The Falcons are favored in this one by 2.5. This game features two quarterbacks who were supposed to go much higher than they did in the 2022 NFL Draft. I like the way Atlanta's defense has stepped up for coordinator Ryan Nielsen, and I think that unit will give tham an edge in this one.
Prediction: Falcons win 23-19
Seattle Seahawks (3-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
The Seattle Seahawks make their return from an early bye week at perhaps the worst possible time. Although you love teams coming off of bye weeks because they are fresh, you hate this so much for Seattle.
They are a West-Coast team traveling to Cincinnati. They not only have to travel east, but the Seahawks have to play in the 1:00 PM ET window against a Bengals team that may have just had its "get right" game this year.
We've been waiting for it, and it might have finally happened against another NFC West opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, on Sunday.
The Bengals' explosive offense was back. Ja'Marr Chase wasn't angry after the game. As a matter of fact, he probably couldn't have been happier after scoring three touchdowns and getting 19 targets.
This game should honestly be pretty good. I don't know if the Bengals are back back, or if we should be expecting more of the struggles we saw from them in Weeks 1-4. From an NFL picks perspective, I just generally don't like West-Coast teams coming east and playing in that early slot. I'm going to ride this Bengals wave for another week.
Prediction: Bengals win 27-24
San Francisco 49ers (5-0) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
I just said that I don't like West Coast teams coming into the 1:00 ET window, but I just don't know if that's really going to matter at all for the San Francisco 49ers. They don't seem to have any real roster weaknesses right now. They are the most well-oiled machine in the NFL, and the only thing that might be able to slow them down a little bit right now is, well, Myles Garrett and arguably the top defense in the NFL right now.
The Browns are certainly hoping so.
But Deshaun Watson's status for this game is still a bit up in the air, even after the Browns' bye week. You can tell the oddsmakers have a lot of respect for the Cleveland defense and the dominance they have shown at times this season, because the 49ers are favored by just 4.5 points on the opening line.
And this is a team that just blew out Dallas -- statistically the no. 1 scoring defense heading into the week -- by the score of 42-10.
I think there are a lot of factors going the Browns' way here, especially if Watson can return to the lineup. I'm just not sure that even the best defense in the NFL can keep up with this 49ers team, which is not only dynamic offensively, but dominant defensively.
This could end up being hard-fought, at least for three quarters, but I see the 49ers pulling away.
Prediction: 49ers win 28-17
Carolina Panthers (0-5) @ Miami Dolphins (4-1)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
The unfortunate reality for the Carolina Panthers this week is that they are likely getting absolutely wrecked. The Panthers are 0-5, and their reality right now is that they are sending the no. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to the Chicago Bears. We'll see how much that changes over the course of the next 13 weeks, but they are staring 0-6 directly in the face.
The good news for the Panthers is that anything can happen on any given Sunday, right? They haven't lost this game until the game has been played, and weirder things have happened. As 14-point home favorites, the Miami Dolphins have the second-biggest point spread of the week. Oddsmakers aren't expecting much of anything in the way of competitiveness in this game, and for good reason.
The Dolphins have the most explosive and dynamic offense in the entire NFL. They have a defense that can put heat on the quarterback. We've seen the Dolphins lose once this season, but I don't think Carolina has the firepower to pull off that kind of upset.
Miami just has too many weapons offensively. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle lead the charge, but the duo of Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane out of the backfield has been incredible in recent weeks. The Dolphins, collectively, average 36.2 points per game (best in the NFL) and 514 yards (best in the NFL) every single week.
So maybe predicting the Panthers to hang in there by 14 is actually just generous.
Prediction: Dolphins win 42-20
Indianapolis Colts (3-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
This could have been the game of the week, and it still might end up being exactly that.
The Indianapolis Colts are going to be without rookie QB Anthony Richardson for quite some time after a shoulder injury knocked him out of Sunday's game. With that being said, the Colts have proven resilient with Gardner Minshew running the show offensively and the return of Jonathan Taylor to the lineup couldn't have been more timely from a competitive standpoint.
But while Jonathan Taylor has been making headlines, it's Zack Moss who has been out there making plays. Going into Week 5 action, there were only a few running backs in the NFL that were averaging 20 carries per game, and Moss was one of them. He had 23 totes again on Sunday against the Titans, and wow, did he impress. Moss ended up with nearly 200 yards from scrimmage -- 165 rushing, 30 receiving -- and a pair of touchdowns as the Colts beat another AFC South opponent (the Titans) to get to 3-2.
The Jaguars are also 3-2 and are favored in this game by 4.5 points after winning two games in London, including Sunday's impressive win over the Buffalo Bills. Just like the Colts got a big performance out of Zack Moss, it was the Jaguars who got a big game from running back Travis Etienne. Etienne ran for 136 yards and two touchdowns, adding 48 yards on four catches as well.
After playing well in their home away from home, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Jaguars -- in a true homecoming -- give their fans reason to be excited by winning a big divisional matchup.
Prediction: Jaguars win 27-22
New Orleans Saints (3-2) @ Houston Texans (2-3)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
The New Orleans Saints are coming off of one of the most impressive wins in Week 5 of the season. They took Bill Belichick and the Patriots to the cleaner's, going into New England and winning 34-0. That was one of the games I was most wrong about last week as I felt the Patriots would get up for a home game but that didn't end up being the case at all.
Derek Carr and the Saints' offense were efficient, but it was the defense that truly won the day in this matchup. The Saints' defense held the Patriots to just 156 total yards, just over 20 minutes time of possession, three turnovers, and an astounding 1-of-14 on third downs.
The Saints' defense put on a clinic of how to set their offense up for success, and they'll need to do the same against the Texans and their impressive rookie QB CJ Stroud.
Stroud and the Texans were rolling a little bit before their encounter with the Atlanta Falcons and their top-10 defense. That Falcons defense is being run by a former Saints disciple, Ryan Nielsen, so New Orleans has to feel good about the way they could match up in this particular case.
The oddsmakers like the Saints by 1.5 in the early betting lines, but if this game gets to be a defensive battle, I think it plays pretty heavily into the favor of New Orleans.
Prediction: Saints win 22-17
New England Patriots (1-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)
Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
The luster of Josh McDaniels going up against Bill Belichick in this game is all but worn off. In all actuality, this might be the biggest dud on the NFL Week 6 slate. For NFL picks purposes, it's feeling a bit easier to project.
Not that the Raiders have been any sort of juggernaut out there, but Mac Jones has been truly that bad for the Patriots in recent weeks. He's been pulled from consecutive games and it's got to be driving Bill Belichick crazy to see the lack of efficiency or even competence from his offense overall. At an average of 11.0 points per game through five weeks, the Patriots are the worst offense in the NFL right now and they are on pace to be the worst offense in league history.
With the way Jones has been playing lately, the Pats may need to make a change soon or risk sinking even further into this hole they are in.
The Raiders are obviously dealing with a lot themselves, having just recently broken in rookie QB Aidan O'Connell, a fourth-round pick out of Purdue. The Raiders feel like a team whose future is very uncertain at this point and they are stuck in a similar purgatory right now as teams like the Broncos and Giants, who make a lot of offseason headlines but aren't really a threat to do much during the actual games.
Like I said, this might be the biggest dud on the Week 6 slate. The Raiders are favored at home by 2.5. That sounds about right.
Prediction: Raiders win 16-13
Arizona Cardinals (1-4) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-3)
Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
The Los Angeles Rams were on pace to put up 28 points against the Philadelphia Eagles this past week, but their offense completely stalled out in the second half. And by stalled out, I mean they were shut out.
The Rams didn't score a single time in the second half against Philly despite the return of Cooper Kupp in this game, giving us our first look at the LA Rams offense with both Kupp and breakout rookie star Puka Nacua. The emergence of Nacua this season has been remarkable to witness, but seeing both he and Kupp together was a lot of fun.
And it should give the Rams some hope that they have the offensive firepower to stay in the mix most of this season. Even at 2-3, I feel like this Rams team is better than their record indicates, or at least more dangerous.
The Arizona Cardinals are another team that feels more dangerous than their record. They are 1-4 this season but they have given teams some fits, and they have some skill players playing really well right now, too. Namely, Rondale Moore, Michael Wilson, and Marquise Brown have made some big plays in the last handful of weeks.
Although this matchup isn't getting flexed into Sunday Night Football, I think it's an underrated and fun matchup to watch this week with plenty of exciting young talent offensively.
Prediction: Rams win 26-20
Philadelphia Eagles (5-0) @ New York Jets (2-3)
Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
The Philadelphia Eagles are 5-0 this season, which is obviously impressive. They are a great team and will be a factor all throughout the playoffs. With that being said, doesn't it feel like they are laboring much more this year to get to that 5-0 record than we saw from them last year? It feels like the Eagles are perhaps on the cusp of getting upset at some point, I'm just not sure it's going to be in this game.
Although I won't go to the lengths that Rodney Harrison of NBC Sports did, I will say that I don't think the Jets, even playing at home, can beat the Eagles with Zach Wilson at the QB position. The Eagles are not the Denver Broncos, and although Breece Hall is capable of having a big game against anyone, I don't think the path to victory against the Eagles is the same as it was this past weekend in Denver.
The Jets have been much better after Aaron Rodgers' injury than most expected. To win that season-opener after Rodgers went down was admirable, but this is a team that just took its first offensive snap with a lead on the scoreboard in Week 5. They have been all kinds of bad at points this season.
Beating the Broncos, getting revenge for Sean Payton's comments about Nathaniel Hackett -- that was the Jets' Super Bowl up to this point. It will take a Herculean effort to beat the Eagles unless they can force a bunch of mistakes by Philly's offense and create three or four turnovers.
I think the Eagles are going to improve to 6-0, and so does Vegas (Eagles are -6.5 favorites).
Prediction: Eagles win 30-16
Detroit Lions (4-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
One of the sneakiest and best matchups of the NFL Week 6 slate is happening in Tampa Bay, where the Buccaneers are a surprising 3-1 so far this season and coming off their bye week to face off against the 4-1 Detroit Lions.
The Buccaneers have turned out to be the perfect landing spot so far for former no. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is doing what he needs to do -- get the ball to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
And it's working.
The only loss the Buccaneers have suffered this season was against the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. They now face their toughest task since that game with a matchup against a Detroit team that has just been crushing folks most of the season. And they are getting it done in a variety of ways.
The Lions can beat you with their running game, their passing game, their defense -- it doesn't matter. Their only loss so far this season came in overtime in a tough one against Seattle. They have scored 31 or more points in three of their last four games. There's a healthy level of respect for the Bucs from the oddsmakers right now -- the Lions are only favored by three in this one. It's going to be fascinating to see just what type of team the Bucs are coming off of a bye, playing at home, and taking on one of the most balanced and explosive offenses in the league.
If I'm putting money on this one, I'm taking Detroit, but don't be surprised if the Bucs do something here. This is their Creamsicle jersey game, though. How can they lose in those bad boys?
Prediction: Lions win 31-24
New York Giants (1-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Unfortunately for the rest of America, we have to be subject to yet another nationally televised New York Giants game.
I got emails during the preseason from Giants fans who were upset at me for my assessment of Daniel Jones after last season, and the Giants as a whole. I liked some of the moves the Giants made in the 2023 offseason, but I couldn't fathom why they paid Jones the type of money they did. As it turns out, it was probably a mistake. The Giants look like one of the more incompetent teams in the NFL right now, and they look like I was right about most of last season: They were lucky to get where they got.
Don't get me wrong -- winning doesn't often happen by accident in the NFL. But the Giants were lucky last year. And the ball don't lie.
They now have to travel to Buffalo to take on a Jekyll & Hyde Bills team. This Bills team beats the tar out of the Dolphins two weekends ago and then they go to London and get beat by the Jaguars. What am I supposed to expect out of these guys?
I think for this matchup, even as familiar as Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are with the Bills organization, you can expect Buffalo to come back to the US and take out their frustration on a bad Giants team. At 14.5-point favorites, the Bills are expected to give us the biggest blowout of the week by the oddsmakers.
Prediction: Bills win 34-19
Dallas Cowboys (3-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
Monday, 8:15 PM ET
The Dallas Cowboys head to Los Angeles after their trip to Santa Clara ended in crushing defeat this past week. The Cowboys, who spend training camp every year in California, are no strangers to the state, and they are no strangers to Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who left Dallas during the offseason.
Moore and the Chargers offense won't have one of their biggest weapons for this game (Mike Williams, out for the season) but they have Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and rookie Quentin Johnston picking up the slack in the passing game while the running game eagerly awaits the return of Austin Ekeler.
Which could be this week against the Cowboys. Lucky for Dallas, right?
Austin Ekeler is a handful to have to defend, and the Chargers' offense is good even without him. But they are dynamic when he plays and there's no question that Dallas struggled against a team with too many ways to win offensively this past week when they faced off against the San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys got blown out of Levi's Stadium on Sunday Night Football. The game that was supposed to be the matchup of the week turned out to be one of the most lopsided games of the week.
Dallas will have to bounce back, and the way they are going to do it is getting pressure on Justin Herbert early and often. FanDuel actually likes the Cowboys as road favorites in this one by a field goal, but with the way they played against the 49ers and the Chargers coming off of a bye?
I might swing six points the other way.
Prediction: Chargers win 27-24