It's sad that the 2023-24 NFL season is coming to a close. We only have a few NFL picks and predictions left this year including the playoffs. And the playoffs will be in focus all throughout Week 18 as teams fight for their playoff lives and jockey for positioning.
Let's not waste any time. Who is winning in Week 18 and who's getting into the playoffs? Who's going to be sent home for the offseason?
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
Saturday, January 6, 4:30 PM ET
Mike Tomlin and at least nine wins is just inevitable in the NFL at this point. Even after a couple of really bad losses to teams like Arizona and New England (who have been showing some fight lately), the Steelers find themselves at 9-7 and with a shot to make it to the playoffs in 2024.
And it might be in the best interests of the Ravens to let them in.
The Ravens have clinched home-field advantage in the playoffs with a record of 13-3, and they did it in impressive fashion. The Ravens took the Miami Dolphins over their knee and spanked them all afternoon on Sunday, dropping 56 points on Vic Fangio's defense and making one of the biggest statements of the season so far.
The Ravens are looking like the team to beat right now in the AFC, but are they going to sit starters in this one? Will Mike Tomlin have his guys ready to capitalize if they do? I think they will, and I think the Steelers get to 10 wins.
I'm guessing the Steelers go into Baltimore and beat the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens, but it is still going to be a hard-fought game. The Ravens are just that good.
Prediction: Steelers win 23-20
Houston Texans (9-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
Saturday, January 6, 8:15 PM ET
There is obviously a lot at stake in the AFC South this coming week, and playoff scenarios are all over the place.
The Indianapolis Colts have proven to be one of the most resilient teams in the entire league this year. They lost star rookie Anthony Richardson early in the season, and Jonathan Taylor has been out for quite a chunk of the season, but they've still managed to win nine games up to this point.
The Houston Texans were one of the worst teams in the NFL last season (like the Colts) but have had a dramatic turnaround in 2023 thanks to the coaching job done by DeMeco Ryans as well as the emergence of rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, who has to be the favorite for NFL rookie of the year offensively this season.
With the way both of these teams have played at their best, I think this game is actually a toss-up, and so does FanDuel. FanDuel has the Colts as early 1.5-point favorites, and I can't help but agree with them there. The Colts' offense has gotten plenty of attention, and rightfully so, thanks to the job being done by Shane Steichen and Gardner Minshew. However, the Colts' defense doesn't get nearly the flowers it deserves for getting this team to nine wins.
I think the Colts continue to ride that defense and a strong ground game to 10 wins and potentially an AFC West title.
Prediction: Colts win 24-21
Cleveland Browns (11-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
Sunday, January 7, 1:00 PM ET
There are few stories as crazy as Joe Flacco becoming a star late this season for the Cleveland Browns. Flacco was signed to Cleveland's practice squad as they cycled through Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and PJ Walker at the quarterback position.
Among other major injuries to guys like Nick Chubb and Jack Conklin, the way the Browns endured through the amount of adversity they've faced should be studied. Kevin Stefanski deserves to win NFL Coach of the Year in my book.
And I think the Browns are going to close out the season in style. They have a road trip to take on the 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals, who were just beaten on the road last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Cleveland has a chance to seize the 5th seed in the AFC playoff race, which will get them a matchup in the first week of the postseason against the AFC South champion.
And with all due respect to the teams competing in the AFC South this season, that seems like a pretty nice Wild Card matchup for the Browns (or anyone).
Shockingly, the Bengals open up this week as 4.5-point favorites at home here. I don't know where FanDuel is coming up with that one unless they think the Browns and Joe Flacco are about to see the clock strike midnight.
I personally think Cleveland wins this one rather handily.
Prediction: Browns win 30-20
Minnesota Vikings (7-9) @ Detroit Lions (11-5)
Sunday, January 7, 1:00 PM ET
The Detroit Lions are NFC North champions for the very first time, and they play host to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 with a bad taste in their mouths. The Lions should be competing for the 1st seed in the NFC this weekend, but they're not thanks to some egregious late-game mistakes made by Brad Allen and his officiating crew.
But this Lions team doesn't need to waste time crying over spilled milk. They need to get this win against the Vikings and get to 12 victories on the season. And I think that's probably going to happen rather easily.
The Vikings played an admirable stretch of football earlier this season, especially when both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson were down with injuries. But this team has been absolutely reeling of late and are now 7-9 heading into the final week of play. I think the Vikings have a shot at creeping into the top 10 of next year's draft depending on what happens in this game here, and I won't be shocked to see that happen.
The Lions are favored in this one by a shockingly low 4.5 points. I don't know where FanDuel is coming up with their spreads this week, to be honest with you. I've got the Lions by 10, at least.
Prediction: Lions win 31-20
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) @ Tennessee Titans (5-11)
Sunday, January 7, 1:00 PM ET
I don't think anyone wants to see this Jacksonville Jaguars team in the playoffs this season.
No, seriously -- I don't think anyone wants to watch them in the playoffs.
The Jaguars have been a miserable team to watch over the last handful of weeks after going through the first half of the season, or so, looking like one of the better overall teams in the league. At their best, the Jaguars have the look of a really dangerous team that could probably hang with anyone in the AFC this season.
At their worst? Well, they look like a team that needs to be picking in the top 10 of the NFL Draft again.
The Tennessee Titans don't have anything to play for this week except pride and future jobs, and sometimes that provides you a weird enough scenario to pull off an upset. I like the Titans a lot of times in upset situations because of how well Mike Vrabel has his team prepared. Then you factor in that the Titans have talent on both sides of the ball and have played some good teams really tough this season.
I think Tennessee is about to ruin Jacksonville's playoff chances this week. The Jags are only favored by 3.5 points on the road here, which tells you all you need to know.
Prediction: Titans win 26-22
New York Jets (6-10) @ New England Patriots (4-12)
Sunday, January 7, 1:00 PM ET
Welcome to the game that almost absolutely no one cares about in Week 18.
The New York Jets and the New England Patriots are facing off to see who can be the less embarrassing team going into the offseason. And it has been an embarrassing season for the New York Jets in almost every way.
Of course, the Aaron Rodgers trade ignited a fire in the fan base, and understandably gave the team hope that they could compete not only for a playoff spot but perhaps a Super Bowl. I think the fact that this team won six games this season speaks volumes to the coaching job done by Robert Saleh overall, especially with the way his defense has played, but the fact that the Jets couldn’t come up with a competent alternative with Rodgers going down week one?
That’s inexcusable. Especially when you see how well someone like Joe Flacco is playing, or how well Joshua Dobbs played for a stretch there. The Jets had chances to add guys, but they refused. And adding someone might have gotten this team into the postseason, but we’ll never know.
Now, both of these teams are looking ahead to the 2023 offseason. What does the future hold for the Patriots with Bill Belichick? Who is playing QB for the Pats in 2024?
This game will serve as a three-hour discussion about the future of each franchise. If this is, indeed, the last game with the Patriots for Bill Belichick...
Prediction: Patriots win 23-19
Atlanta Falcons (7-9) @ New Orleans Saints (8-8)
Sunday, January 7, 1:00 PM ET
For those of you who may be reading these NFL picks and predictions for the very first time – welcome.
For those of you who have been reading them for a while, you might remember my plight with the New York Giants last season. It seemed like no matter what I predicted the Giants to do, they did the exact opposite in a given week. This season, the New Orleans Saints have been that team for me.
When I expect the Saints to zig, they zag. When I expect them to go up, they go down. When I say they look bad offensively, they explode for 30-plus points.
How am I supposed to predict this game when I can’t get a grip on the Saints? It’s like trying to throw darts in the dark.
The good news is, I don’t think anyone really has a beat on the Saints this year, and that level of unpredictability makes for good TV. The Saints play host in Week 18 to the Atlanta Falcons, and having New Orleans win this game would add to the chaos of the entire season. The NFC South is still up for grabs and Derek Carr was brought in (and paid a lot of money) to make a division title happen again
The Falcons could be picking in the top 9 of the 2024 NFL Draft, or they could be hosting a playoff game soon. Who knows? One way or another, I think Atlanta is destined for some changes at the QB position again in 2024 and I don’t think they’re far off from being the best team in the NFC South.
I’m going to predict the Saints to win this game. They are 3.5-point favorites at home, and I think they find a way to get the job done.
Prediction: Saints win 27-23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) @ Carolina Panthers (2-14)
Sunday, January 7, 1:00 PM ET
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a golden opportunity in Week 17 at home against the Saints, and they absolutely blew it. I stuck my neck out for them a couple of times last week, too.
We’re all collectively shaking our head at the Bucs’ performance in Week 17 but we don’t have long to feel sorry for them. If we’re going to see Baker Mayfield go from being cast-off by three different teams in less than a year’s time to leading the Bucs to the playoffs, he’s going to have to get the job done in a stressful game to end the year against the Panthers.
The Panthers are the saddest team in the NFL this year, no doubt about it. They have clinched the #1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, except they traded it to the Chicago Bears last offseason. They fired Frank Reich in the middle of the season. Their owner is throwing drinks on fans.
This is a team that is clearly at rock-bottom.
I think the Buccaneers are going to get the win here, there’s no doubt about it. The Panthers could play spoiler, but that would be some kind of surprise given the way they’ve played this season. It would require an epic collapse on the part of the Bucs.
Tampa Bay is considered six-point favorites in this matchup.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 24-12
Chicago Bears (7-9) @ Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Sunday, January 7, 4:25 PM ET
This game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers might be the most underrated game on the entire Week 18 schedule. Although this isn’t a situation where both teams are playing for the division title at the buzzer of the season, there is a lot at stake for both teams.
The Chicago Bears have clinched the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft thanks to the Carolina Panthers. This will be the second year in a row the Bears will own the #1 pick in the NFL Draft, and after passing on quarterbacks in 2023, will they be able to do the same in 2024?
Justin Fields has certainly given them something to think about this year. Although Fields hasn’t been perfect, I think the full arsenal of his talent has been on display more this year than any of his other seasons in the NFL. If the Bears keep continuity with their coaching staff – and it seems they will – is Justin Fields also part of that plan?
From the Packers’ perspective, this game is about making the playoffs, and doing so in year one of the Jordan Love era would be absolutely outstanding. Love has played really well over the course of this whole season and has proven that he can be the franchise QB of the Packers. Green Bay is fresh off of a dominating win over the battered Minnesota Vikings, and they have a chance to do this year what they couldn’t last year – punch their ticket to the playoffs in Week 18.
It would be almost poetic for Green Bay to find a way to do exactly that after the way the Aaron Rodgers era ended. They’re 3-point favorites against the Bears and I think we’ll see them get the job done in a hard-fought battle by both teams.
Prediction: Packers win 31-27
Denver Broncos (8-8) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-9)
Sunday, January 7, 4:25 PM ET
The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders don’t have anything to play for in Week 18 except for pride, but I think this is going to be one of the most hard-fought games of the week.
The Raiders close out the season at home and you can’t help but wonder if the sand timer is running out on interim head coach Antonio Pierce. For the most part, it feels like Pierce has done a really great job with the Raiders and it seems he deserves a chance to be considered the team’s permanent head coach going forward.
Of course, the Raiders aren’t going to deny themselves an opportunity to make a big splash if the opportunity presents itself, but Pierce could be a major factor for the organization going forward.
How will the team rally around him in Week 18 in what could be his final game as head coach?
What about Sean Payton and the Broncos? They have a chance to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2016. The Broncos have been in the headlines all season from their debacle in Miami, to their impressive winning streak, to benching Russell Wilson last week.
It hasn’t been a seamless first year in Denver for Sean Payton, but with the way things were in Denver last season, nobody should have expected seamless. The Broncos haven’t beaten the Raiders in a while, and I think Sean Payton is going to get this team to a winning record in his first year on the job.
Prediction: Broncos win 27-21
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) @ New York Giants (5-11)
Sunday, January 7, 4:25 PM ET
The Philadelphia Eagles…woof.
The Eagles are 11-5 right now, which is nothing to scoff at, but the play of this team in 2023 has looked nothing like what we saw in 2022. The Eagles just got beat by Jonathan Gannon, Kyler Murray, and the Arizona Cardinals. To their credit, Gannon’s Cardinals have come to play this season and have been much better than anticipated, but the Eagles losing a game like this late in the season?
With playoff seeding at stake?
It’s just a horrendous look for Nick Sirianni and his crew. The Eagles don’t play well on defense. They’ve had to overcome inconsistency offensively. I don’t know what we are expecting out of this team going forward but this team is only favored by 5.5 points on the road against the New York Giants, who have one of the worst offenses in the league this season.
That tells you all you need to know about the Eagles and the way they are playing right now. Nobody’s sticking their neck out for them at this point. Barring an unexpected tear from the Philly defense, I think this team is poised for an early playoff exit in a rather loaded NFC race.
But I also think they're winning this game.
Prediction: Eagles win 25-17
Seattle Seahawks (8-8) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-12)
Sunday, January 7, 4:25 PM ET
Although this matchup is between an 8-8 Seattle Seahawks team and a 4-12 Arizona Cardinals team, it’s one of the games I’m most interested in during the Week 18 slate. You’re going to want to have the Red Zone channel on for Week 18, by the way, because the 4:25 PM ET window is loaded with more games than any other week before it.
The Cardinals are fresh off of an emotional win against the Philadelphia Eagles, and this team is playing really hard this season for head coach Jonathan Gannon. They’ve now got a couple of signature wins this season against teams like Dallas and Philadelphia, and although the Cardinals have 12 losses, I think the future is bright for this team as a whole.
And entering the season, it was hard to fathom they could do that. I felt the Cardinals had – easily – the worst roster in the entire NFL.
And now, I’m going to try to make amends for those statements by predicting them to win their final game of the season. The Cardinals play host to the Seahawks, who have a lot on the line, which I think is only going to fuel Arizona’s fire. The Seahawks just got beat by the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they’ve been teetering on the brink of elimination for the last handful of weeks.
I think the Cardinals will happily play spoiler here, heading into the offseason with a quality win against the Eagles and a division win against Seattle.
Prediction: Cardinals win 34-30
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)
Sunday, January 7, 4:25 PM ET
Welcome to the game that almost absolutely no one cares about in Week 18.
The New York Jets and the New England Patriots are facing off to see who can be the less embarrassing team going into the offseason. And it has been an embarrassing season for the New York Jets in almost every way.
Of course, the Aaron Rodgers trade ignited a fire in the fan base, and understandably gave the team hope that they could compete not only for a playoff spot but perhaps a Super Bowl. I think the fact that this team won six games this season speaks volumes to the coaching job done by Robert Saleh overall, especially with the way his defense has played, but the fact that the Jets couldn’t come up with a competent alternative with Rodgers going down week one?
That’s inexcusable. Especially when you see how well someone like Joe Flacco is playing, or how well Joshua Dobbs played for a stretch there. The Jets had chances to add guys, but they refused. And adding someone might have gotten this team into the postseason, but we’ll never know.
Now, both of these teams are looking ahead to the 2023 offseason. What does the future hold for the Patriots with Bill Belichick? Who is playing QB for the Pats in 2024?
This game will serve as a three-hour discussion about the future of each franchise.
Prediction: Chiefs win 27-10
Los Angeles Rams (9-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Sunday, January 7, 4:25 PM ET
The Los Angeles Rams have clinched a playoff spot this year, and that’s exciting for the NFL. The playoffs without the Rams would be a little less fun.
The Rams won the Super Bowl during the 2021 season thanks to the acquisition of Matthew Stafford, the dominance of Cooper Kupp offensively and Aaron Donald defensively, and the mid-season additions of players like Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr.
Sean McVay once again has his team playing well, but with a completely different looking roster. How good is McVay as a head coach? He has already taken two very different rosters to the Super Bowl. He’s got a Super Bowl win. Now, he’s got a chance to get to another with one of the youngest rosters in the league.
They’re on the road this week against the San Francisco 49ers who are still fighting for that top seed in the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys are nipping at their heels and there are a handful of other teams that could jump into the mix this week. The 49ers have a lot to play for, but I think this game is much more complicated than just straight-up picking the team with the better overall record.
I do think the 49ers are the better club overall, but it speaks volumes to the quality of this Rams team that the early betting line is only set at 4.5 points in favor of the 49ers. The Rams are being taken seriously after winning six out of seven games coming out of the bye week. Can they stay hot here?
I think the 49ers get one more wake-up call before the playoffs in this one.
Prediction: Rams win 33-31
Dallas Cowboys (11-5) @ Washington Commanders (4-12)
Sunday, January 7, 4:25 PM ET
Controversy or not, the Dallas Cowboys have effectively proven in recent weeks that they are legit contenders in the NFC. I think they’re going to put one last exclamation point on the 2023-24 season in this game against the Commanders, not to spoil anything here.
The Cowboys are tremendous both offensively and defensively, and hopefully (for their sake) they’ve managed to learn a thing or two from their playoff struggles of the last couple of years. They are going to need to run an absolute gauntlet in the NFC this season, but a win in Week 18 could propel them to the second overall seed in the conference and make them NFC East champions.
The Washington Commanders are once again heading into an offseason with major question marks at head coach and quarterback. Nothing new for this franchise.
What direction will they go? Your guess is as good as mine. The Commanders have established themselves as one of the least interesting teams in the entire NFL.
I think they’re going to get dragged against the Cowboys.
Prediction: Cowboys win 34-13
Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Sunday, January 7, 8:20 PM ET
Based on the way things were looking for the Buffalo Bills a few weeks ago, the fact that this game is a "winner-take-all" in the AFC East is rather shocking.
The Bills have taken care of business, winning four straight games after falling to 6-6, and this winning streak for them has included some really good teams. They gutted out a win against the Kansas City Chiefs with their backs against the wall. They dominated the Dallas Cowboys.
Although the Buffalo Bills are not perfect, they’re a dangerous team right now and they’re catching the Miami Dolphins at maybe the most opportune time.
The Dolphins are down bad after getting embarrassed this past weekend against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens dropped 56 points on Miami, who lost pass rusher Bradley Chubb to add injury to insult.
Miami’s operation has not been clean over the last month or so, and even with a quality win over a team like Dallas a couple of weeks ago, I just don’t have nearly as much confidence in this team now as I did earlier in the season. Still, Miami boasts one of the most explosive and dynamic offenses in the league.
I think the Bills can hang with them, though. The oddsmakers have Buffalo as three-point road favorites to open this one up, and while that may seem extremely bold, I think it’s spot on. I think the Dolphins are going to send the Dolphins into the playoffs with a lot of disappointment.
Prediction: Bills win 27-24