Today’s article focuses on the AFC where the Buffalo Bills, three-time division defending division champions will try to improve their team against a backdrop of an imposing salary cap challenge, aging veterans at key positions, and a fear that their championship window may be closed. Can the Dolphins, Jets, or Patriots catch them? Only time will tell but each team will need to make an impactful pick in the first round if they hope to dethrone the champions of the AFC East.
New England Patriots - Pick 3 - Areas of Need - Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Tight End
Best pick at 3 – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback - LSU
The Patriots' first pick will be largely dependent on what happens before they pick at picks 1 and 2. Both the Bears and Redskins are expected to pick QBs with the first two picks of the draft and assuming the Redskins pick Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels would be the best pick for the new head coach Jared Mayo and the de facto general manager, director of scouting, Elliot Wolf.
Marvin Harrison could be a wild card here and may be the best player in the draft at a position of need. But the Patriots have lived the first years of post-Tom Brady era without a franchise quarterback and have failed drastically.
The Patriots locker room believe in Jared Mayo, but he's here because it was in his contract that he would replace Bill Belichick. If he wants to win over management and the Patriots' fans, Mayo likely has to win a lot, and soon, to keep his job a fraction of the time his predecessor did. Daniels has all of the tools of an elite QB in today’s NFL and is too good to pass up for a team that needs its franchise QB of the future.
Shake it up pick – Trade to 7 or 10 to pick Brock Bowers - Tight End – Georgia
In what would be a risky move for new Elliot Wolf, and the future of Jared Mayo, the Patriots could trade the number 3 pick to a team that likely would target Daniels, or maybe Harrison. The most likely trade partners in need of a QB are the Titans at seven, and the Vikings at ten. A trade would either team would likely net the Patriots a first round pick next year and a third or fourth round pick in the 2024 draft.
At seven, or ten, New England could likely gain a potential star in Georgia tight end Brock Bowers and build their draft war chest at the same time. Bowers is thought of as a future star in the NFL and the Patriots have had success leveraging great tight ends to win; and win big. If Bowers is taken in front of them, the Patriots would still have a plethora of picks at positions of need, which could include quarterbacks JJ McCarthy, or Bo Nix, as well as the additional trade capital.
New York Jets - Pick 10 - Areas of Need - Offensive Tackle, Wide Receiver, Defensive Lineman
Best Pick - Taliese Fuaga - Tackle - Oregon State
The Jets must take an offensive tackle with their first pick of the 2024 draft. With 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers coming back from a torn Achilles tendon and one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year, the Jets have to find the best tackle they can with this pick.
At least 2 other teams, the Titans, and the Chargers, will likely target tackles in the ifrst round and Fuaga would be a great pick for the Jets here at 10. Fuaga is a massive human being at 6'6", and 335 pounds. Oregon State ran the ball a lot during his time there and Fuaga is known as a mauler who can get to the second and third-level easily and create the kind of space Breece Hall would covet in the Jets run game. At the same time, Fuaga is a good pass protector and has extremely long arms and the strength to hold off edge rushers.
In a tackle heavy draft, with lots of teams looking to add their next cornerstone on the offensive line, Fuaga will be a good fit and great talent for the Jets at ten.
Shake it up pick – Trade up to Joe Alt - Tackle - Notre Dame
Assuming Olumuyiwa Fashanu, the consensus top offensive tackle in a deep pool of talented offensive tackles, is drafted by the Chargers at 5, and he should be, Joe Alt is likely to also be off the board before the Jets pick at 10. However, Alt is the number 2 rated OT by PFF, and the highest draft eligible player at that position. Alt was the best lineman, and a unanimous first team All-American, for a Notre Dame team that was pass first oriented and averaged 39.1 points per game.
Fashanu is considered a “can’t miss” franchise tackle but Alt is equally gifted and would likely give the Jets a can't-miss prospect and the position of highest need. Taliese Fuaga would be a good pick here, but if the Jets could move up a few spots, they could select Alt. Alt would be a better scheme fit and would almost guarantee the Jets a future All-Prop at their most important position of need.
Miami Dolphins - Pick 21 - Areas of Need - Center, Guard, Offensive Tackle
Best Pick - Jackson Powers-Johnson - Center / Guard - Oregon
The Miami Dolphins are in need of help across their offensive line and while the draft is deep at offensive tackle, it's likely that the most reliable prospects at tackle will be picked off the board by the time they make their first pick. Fortunately, for a team that needs to fill multiple positions on the offensive line, Jackson Power-Johnson, a center at Oregon will likely be available at twenty-one for Mike McDaniel and Chris Grier.
Jackson Powers-Johnson is considered by most to be the bet interior offensive lineman in the draft and is the top rated this year by Pro Football Focus. He was ranked number 4 by PFF in 2022. Powers-Johnson was a unanimous All-American selection and the Rimington Award winner as the nation's top center. Powers-Johnson could move to guard, if needed, he played a number of games there for Oregon in 2022. The later portion of the first round has seen a number of All-Pro centers taken in recent drafts; Jackson Powers-Johnson could anchor the Dolphins'' offensive line, for the better part of a decade.
Shake it up Pick - Trade up to pick Olumuyiwa Fashanu – OT – Penn State
If the Dolphins move up, it will likely be for an offensive tackle. and the only tackle worth the move is Olumuyiwa Fashanu from Penn State. An argument could be made that the Dolphins could move up to move on from Tua Tagovailoa before they have to pay him. But the offense scheme and talent pool of track stars and their skill positions show that the Dolphins are pot committed to Tua and his style of play.
The problem is the Dolphins can't protect Tua and it's very fortunate for Mike McDaniel and company that Tua stayed healthy for a full year. Nothing would reset that narrative better than a franchise tackle. While other tackles are highly rated, if the Dolphins want to make the biggest impact, they will have to give up multiple draft assets to land the consensus generational talent in Fashanu.
Buffalo Bills - Pick 28 - Areas of Need - Wide Receiver, Tackle, Defensive Back
Best Pick - Brian Thomas - Wide Receiver - LSU
For the Bills, who are salary cap-strapped and looking to rebuild at a number of positions, this pick probably comes down to Brian Thomas Jr. of LSU and Troy Franklin of Oregon and who the Bills rank higher. With a number of talented receivers in the draft, Buffalo will hope that either or both Thomas Jr. or Franklin are available.
Thomas Jr. seems to be the best fit of the two for the Bills. The Tiger standout had 17 Touchdowns last year and is considered by most as having the top acceleration and maximum speed in the draft.
Given Gabe Davis’s free agency and inconsistent position, Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott will likely turn to the draft to find the deep threat Josh Allen needs to attack opposing secondaries and make the Bills offense a consistent threat to opposing defenses.
Shake it up Pick - Trade up for Malik Nabers - Wide Receiver - LSU
If the Bills want to shake up the 2024 draft, like they did in moving up to get Josh Allen in 2018 and trade up to get Josh Allen a future franchise player at a position of need, like they did with Dalton Kinkade in 2023, a move up to the top 5 to select Malik Nabers WR LSU is the move the Bills need to make.
Nabers is often seen as the “consolidation prize” for teams looking for a WR in this year's draft.
But with no disrespect to Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers season of 89 catches, 1569 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 games puts the LSU product in the same discussion as LSU greats Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase; two greats at LSU who are top 5 WRs in the NFL.
Nabers would give the Bills flexibility if Stefon Diggs were to move on in 2024 or 2025. Using Diggs as a piece in a move up for Nabers would provide much-needed salary cap relief while giving Allen his next big weapon to pair along Kincaid