Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is still almost four months away, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a way-too-early look at the slate of games, and try our hand at making some predictions. Teams have largely finished shaping their rosters through free agency and the NFL Draft. Although there’s still plenty of time left between now and the regular season, we’re going to make some early NFL picks and predictions.
What are the top matchups of the 2023 NFL season in week 1? What matchups are in prime time? What teams could start the season with a bang? Let’s take a look at all 16 games on the loaded Week 1 slate.
Early NFL picks, predictions for Week 1 of 2023 season
Detroit Lions (9-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
The season kicks off in a pretty surprising way with the Kansas City Chiefs coming off of their latest Super Bowl win and beginning their title defense with a home opener against…The Lions?
The Detroit Lions?
Yes, the Detroit Lions. These aren’t your older brother’s Detroit Lions, though. These are the new-look Detroit Lions, one of the hottest teams at the end of the year last year and one of the league’s best offensive attacks.
The Lions, led by Jared Goff offensively, finished 5th in the NFL in scoring last season. They had the fewest turnovers in the entire league. They were fourth in red zone percentage and 8th in the league in passing. Not bad for a team that was completely written off after the Matthew Stafford trade in 2021.
The Chiefs, of course, don’t care about how upstart the Lions are. They have one of the top home-field advantages in the league and no matter who is on the roster besides Patrick Mahomes, it’s going to take a herculean effort for a team like Detroit to come into Kansas City and get a Week 1 win.
It’s great to see the Lions getting some recognition from the NFL schedule-makers as one of the two featured teams to kick off the season, and this game may even be close through three quarters. But ultimately, the Chiefs will pull away.
Prediction: Chiefs win 34-23
Carolina Panthers (7-10) at Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
The 2023 NFL schedule opens up on Sunday afternoon with an NFC South battle between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, two teams coming off of borderline impressive 7-10 seasons, if that’s even possible.
The Panthers were fish in a barrel last year before interim head coach Steve Wilks took over for Matt Rhule. Wilks helped the Panthers finish the year rather strong, and while he was considered as a permanent option in the head coach spot, the Panthers ultimately hired Frank Reich, the guy who threw the first pass in team history as a quarterback. Reich was brought in for his noted QB expertise, and he brought along a whole host of coaches with him to develop Bryce Young, a former Heisman winner and now the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft class.
The Panthers struck up a blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears for the no. 1 overall pick and Young wound up being their guy. Although Andy Dalton is on the roster, we fully expect this game to be Bryce Young vs. Desmond Ridder. The last time these two QBs faced off (Young, Ridder), it was in the semifinal of the 2021 College Football Playoff.
Now, they are both starters on NFC South teams with playoff aspirations.
I think both of these teams had pretty good offseasons, but the Carolina Panthers may have had the best offseason out of any NFL team. The question now is, how quickly can it all come together?
The Falcons are banking a lot on Ridder taking the next step, and they are one of the NFL’s best teams at running the ball already. Then they went and added Bijan Robinson in the NFL Draft.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this game ended up either way, but right now, I’m leaning toward the home team.
Prediction: Falcons win 23-20
Houston Texans (3-13-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
This matchup features two teams with very excited fan bases and for similar but also very different reasons.
The Houston Texans have been searching for a franchise quarterback for a few years now since Deshaun Watson’s off-field issues derailed a very promising future in Houston. They haven’t waited too long, at least relatively speaking. The Texans landed CJ Stroud with the second pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and Stroud has the makeup of a legit franchise QB.
They not only were able to land Stroud, though. The Texans traded up with the capital they received from Cleveland in the Watson trade to land Will Anderson Jr. with the third pick in the draft as well. It’s possible they got the best QB and the best non-QB in this year’s class.
While Houston fans are excited to have found their potential franchise QB, Ravens fans have to be elated to know that they have locked in their franchise QB. Lamar Jackson is back on a mega contract and hopefully, all of the distractions that contract situation has brought with it the last couple of years will be eliminated.
Jackson only played 12 games this past year, but it was the best he’s looked since his MVP campaign in 2019.
I don’t think Jackson is going to waste any time regaining his MVP-caliber form now that he’s got the bag secured. Although I’m very much “in” on DeMeco Ryans’ Texans this year, I think the Ravens are winning this opener.
Prediction: Ravens win 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) @ Cleveland Browns (7-10)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
The battle for Ohio will take place in Week 1 of the season as the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, one of the biggest question marks in the NFL this coming season.
Over the last 2-3 years, we have seen very little “good” from Deshaun Watson on the field. Off the field, it’s been an absolute disaster everywhere except his bank account. Watson received an unprecedented, fully-guaranteed contract offer from the Browns worth $230 million in total money. Prior to that offer coming through, Watson seemingly was about to choose either the Falcons or Panthers or Eagles (or something).
But Cleveland came through with a record-breaking offer and Watson took his 11-game suspension last year, returning for the final six games and completing just over 58 percent of his throws with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. It’s hard to say it looked like the Deshaun Watson of old.
I don’t know what to expect from him this year whatsoever. What we’ve come to expect from the Bengals, on the other hand, is a relatively consistent and dominant offense led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. This Bengals team is truly one of the elite in the AFC, but is there a possibility for an upset early on this coming season
Weird things tend to happen in Week 1 of the NFL season. You can’t just go “chalk” with all of these picks and take the team with the better record. When making NFL picks, you’ve got to take risks.
Prediction: Browns win 28-24
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
There were very few teams who closed out the 2022 season as strong as the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags caught fire after a close loss to the Denver Broncos in London last season, and as they caught fire, they also caught the attention of everyone in the NFL.
Not only did the Jags take a huge step forward as a franchise last season under Doug Pederson (who was robbed of NFL coach of the year) but the more important news is that Trevor Lawrence took a massive leap forward into the NFL’s elite. The former top overall pick had his ups and downs as a rookie, but looked every bit the part of a star franchise quarterback in year two.
The Jaguars now look like they could be a substantial threat in the AFC with Lawrence at the helm. The acquisition of Calvin Ridley at last year’s trade deadline flew under the radar, and this team made substantial investments on both sides of the ball the last few years that they are expecting to continue to progress in 2023.
For the Indianapolis Colts, the theme of 2023 is going to be “new”. They’re breaking in a new head coach and coaching staff (Shane Steichen). They’re breaking in a new QB (Anthony Richardson). They will have plenty to be excited about as Richardson develops, but it would be shocking to see them win this one at home against Jacksonville.
I know I said before that weird things tend to happen in Week 1, but I think the Jaguars are going to be ready to impress in Week 1 and get everyone excited about just how fun this season could be for them.
Prediction: Jaguars win 31-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) @ Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Most people are already writing off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the 2023 season, but I’m not so sure that’s the best idea. The Buccaneers will be quarterbacked by either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, and that’s where pretty much everyone sees this team being among the worst in the league. But just because the Bucs don’t have the greatest QB situation in the league doesn’t mean they have a bad roster, overall.
This team could be headed toward tearing things down as of the NFL trade deadline, but the roster is simply too talented at this point in time to be written off as the worst team in the league. The defense, in particular, has studs at every level.
Going up to Minnesota for Week 1, however, will be an intriguing challenge early on. The Bucs are going to have to score points, because the Vikings can score them in bunches, especially at home. They averaged 27.0 points per game at home last season compared to 22.6 points per game on the road.
Again, I’m not one who agrees the Buccaneers are just going to roll over and play dead this season for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. I think they will have to come by that organically for it to actually happen (and it could). But playing on the road in Minnesota is always tough and the Vikings are going to come out hot to start the season with doubters like myself writing off their 2022 record of 13-4.
Prediction: Vikings win 27-19
Tennessee Titans (7-10) @ New Orleans Saints (7-10)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
It’s the beginning of a new and exciting era for the New Orleans Saints in 2023. Or is it?
Is Derek Carr one of the most underappreciated QBs in the NFL or is he one of the league’s most overrated at the position? If you ask a handful of the Raiders fans I’ve spoken with this offseason, it seems to be much more of the latter than the former.
I tend to think that Derek Carr has been a bit underappreciated throughout his NFL career, but I also think he’s overrated by some at times. Carr is firmly in the Kirk Cousins realm at the QB position, although I would say his play — at times — is a bit more erratic than Cousins. Cousins usually loads up the stat sheet, at the very least. There are times when Carr will play with surgical accuracy and operate the offense at a Pro Bowl level, and then there are times when he is a liability.
Overall, it’s hard to know what kind of impact he will make with the Saints until we see all the pieces put together. I do think he’s an upgrade for them.
Speaking of upgrades, how hot is Ryan Tannehill’s seat right now? In consecutive years, the Titans have used Day 2 picks on the QB position (Malik Willis in 2022, Will Levis in 2023). Although Tannehill hasn’t been replaced just yet, I think that time is coming soon.
How heavily will that weigh on him and the Titans’ offense in 2023? Can Mike Vrabel do his best coaching job yet?
Prediction: Saints win 21-17
San Francisco 49ers (13-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
The Steelers extended their streak of never having a losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin last season, but just barely. Actually, the Steelers came close to creeping into the playoffs when all was said and done, but their nine wins weren’t quite enough to get the job done.
Pittsburgh has a strong defense under Tomlin and will continue that in 2023, but their offense led by Kenny Pickett is a major question mark. The Steelers ranked 26th in the NFL in scoring last season despite having the fourth-fewest turnovers in the league. They simply couldn’t punch the ball in.
A 7-2 finish to the 2022 season, however, should be inspiring plenty of confidence into the faithful fans of Steeler Nation. The Steelers get the chance to open this coming season at home against Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, who have their own plethora of major question marks heading into this coming season.
The 49ers have one of the most well-constructed rosters in the NFL, but the quarterback position features three guys right now that nobody knows how to project for the coming season. Is Brock Purdy going to be healthy enough to start the year? Does the team believe in Trey Lance enough to put him back in that spot, assuming he also is healthy enough to play?
What about Sam Darnold? Is he an actual factor here?
I’m so fascinated by these two teams. On the one hand, you have Shanahan’s 49ers who score points by the boatload no matter who is playing QB. On the other hand, you have the Steelers who won seven of their last nine games last season averaging 18 points per game.
This could be a defensive battle, and as good as the 49ers were last season — reaching the NFC Championship — I’m taking the Steelers at home given the 49ers’ uncertainty at QB.
Prediction: Steelers win 23-20
Arizona Cardinals (4-13) @ Washington Commanders (8-8-1)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, FedExField, Landover
If we’re being picky, this might actually be the “worst” matchup on the NFL’s Week 1 slate, although by the time September rolls around, is anybody going to be complaining about any of these games?
Not likely.
The Arizona Cardinals should be expected to be the worst team in the NFL this coming season. They easily have the worst roster, although they still have some decent players on either side of the ball. The biggest factor here is Kyler Murray’s health. If Murray is unable to play at the start of the season, a reasonable expectation given the nature of his knee injury, then the Cardinals’ top option right now is Colt McCoy.
I can’t help but wonder what the Commanders’ elite defensive front might do to McCoy in this game, and just how many times the ball might get turned over.
The Commanders are breaking in a young QB themselves. The 2022 NFL Draft class was so odd, because it included a number of guys that all separately received first-round hype at one point or another (like Sam Howell) but they all ended up going way later than expected. Sam Howell was supposed to be a candidate for the no. 1 overall pick at one point.
And then he went in round five.
But the Commanders are putting their faith in Howell. He’s their unquestioned starter at this point, unless Jacoby Brissett has something to say about it.
I feel confident at this point in time about picking the Commanders with new OC Eric Bieniemy to come out in Week 1 at home and get a win.
Prediction: Commanders win 21-13
Green Bay Packers (8-9) @ Chicago Bears (3-14)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Chicago
This battle of two NFC North teams will no longer feature Chicago Bears owner Aaron Rodgers.
Too soon?
In all seriousness, it’s going to be weird to see the Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers. I still remember doing an internship in college, listening to ESPN radio while I was working, and it was fantasy football experts talking about how Aaron Rodgers was a sleeper pick because of how good and efficient he was in the red zone during his second season as the Packers’ starter.
Time really flies.
Now, just like Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers has gone off to play for the New York Jets, and the Packers are officially moving into the Jordan Love era. How will Love do with the pressure of living up to this impossibly high standard of QB play in Green Bay?
On the other side of the field, how is Justin Fields going to do with huge expectations now that the team has gone out and added some major pieces to the offensive side of the ball like big-money free agent Nate Davis, first-round pick Darnell Wright, and blockbuster trade acquisition DJ Moore?
The Bears boast a new-look defense and the Packers boast a new-look offense. I think Justin Fields will pick up right where he left off last season, which was dominating on the ground. The Bears start fresh with their revamped roster and spoil the season debut of Jordan Love.
Prediction: Bears win 28-20
Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) @ Denver Broncos (5-12)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Empower Field at Mile High
Given the expectations for both of these teams last season, a combined 11 wins from the Raiders and Broncos qualifies as astronomically underwhelming. These two teams were two of the biggest disappointments in the 2022 NFL season and now nobody really knows how to project them for this coming year.
The Raiders now have Jimmy Garoppolo operating Josh McDaniels’ offense once again in the 2023 season. He hasn’t done that since 2017 when he was still with the Patriots. Jimmy G. inherits an offense left behind by Derek Carr which includes Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, and All-Pro running back Josh Jacobs. Not to mention, the Raiders were able to land Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
The Denver Broncos made arguably the biggest move of any team in the 2023 offseason when they traded picks to the New Orleans Saints for head coach Sean Payton. Having Payton in the fold after the debacle that was Nathaniel Hackett could breathe some significant life into the Denver Broncos’ franchise.
But can Payton revive Russell Wilson’s NFL career? Wilson dealt with a variety of injuries last season, and he really just didn’t look like himself at all in 2022. My guess is we see a big bounce-back from Russ, but the leash will be relatively short. Sean Payton likes free agent Jarrett Stidham, who the Broncos brought in during free agency.
I think the Broncos win a game that could be considered a coin flip at this point.
Prediction: Broncos win 24-20
Miami Dolphins (9-8) @ Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Ah look, a matchup between two teams that are extremely talented yet nearly impossible to project.
Over the last couple of seasons, both the Chargers and Dolphins have had some horrendous injury luck and it has cost them greatly at the most inopportune times. I can’t think of a more appropriate example than last year with both teams as the Dolphins entered the playoffs with Skylar Thompson as their starting quarterback, and the Chargers entered the postseason without star receiver Mike Williams.
The injury to Mike Williams that kept him out of the playoffs can be directly tied to Brandon Staley’s moronic decision to play his starters in the regular season finale against the Denver Broncos, while the Dolphins’ issues were pretty much happening all throughout the second half of the season.
Is Tua Tagovailoa going to be able to play all or most of the season? If not, can Mike White really keep this talented Dolphins team afloat?
The Dolphins landed Vic Fangio as their DC in 2023 and Jalen Ramsey in a trade with the Rams. They are clearly pushing all their chips into the middle of the table on this season. They’re banking a lot on Tua.
The Chargers struggle with injuries all over the place, but Justin Herbert finally carried this team to the playoffs last year. Will he be able to carry them past a Dolphins team and a DC in Fangio who has historically had Herbert’s number?
Prediction: Dolphins win 24-17
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) @ New England Patriots (8-9)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
The reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles will begin their revenge tour on the road, facing off against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.
After losing just three games all of last season, only one of which happened when Jalen Hurts was in the lineup. Hurts has undoubtedly established himself as one of the best and most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, which is why the Eagles rewarded him with a massive contract this offseason.
Now, the key is going to be figuring out a way to get over the hump that is Kansas City. The Eagles are one of the few teams in the NFL that can do it, at least if you’re talking about standing toe-to-toe with Kansas City and where they are right now as an NFL juggernaut.
The Eagles simply don’t have any real weaknesses on their roster. They are as complete of a team as you will find.
The Patriots, meanwhile, are a team in transition. Mac Jones — is he the guy or isn’t he? Is Bill O’Brien’s return to New England going to make a massive difference? How about this wide receiver group in New England?
I think we can always expect the Patriots to be well-coached defensively, but do they have the talent to keep up with a team like the Eagles the way they’re both currently constructed?
Playing in New England used to mean just about an automatic win for the Pats, but they are just 8-9 at home since 2021.
Prediction: Eagles win 34-23
Los Angeles Rams (5-12) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Lumen Field, Seattle
The 2023 season opens up out West with a battle between two NFC West rivals that went completely opposite directions than what the masses assumed in the 2022 season.
The Los Angeles Rams were fresh off of a Super Bowl win, but injuries and offseason losses absolutely decimated their hopes of repeating, even as division champions. The Rams were barely even a shell of the team that we saw dominate in 2021 en route to a Super Bowl win.
The Seahawks were expected to be bad after trading Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos and opening up a camp battle for the starting QB job with Geno Smith and Drew Lock. Nobody could have known that Geno Smith would go out and win NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
But he did.
Now, it’s Matthew Stafford’s turn — along with wide receiver Cooper Kupp — to go out and make a bid for that particular award. The Rams are going to be a young team in some areas, but they certainly have veteran experience where it matters. And they have great coaching.
Speaking of, Pete Carroll deserves a ton of credit for not just keeping the Seahawks afloat last year, but getting them back to the playoffs considering the circumstances. This team is going to run the ball and play physical in that phase of the game.
As far as NFL picks, it’s so early anyway but it’s way too early to know just what these two teams are going to look like in terms of the players the Rams have coming back from injuries. I think if Matthew Stafford is healthy, as well as Cooper Kupp, the Rams win this one.
Prediction: Rams win 23-21
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) @ New York Giants (9-7-1)
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
The first Sunday Night Football matchup of the 2023 season pits two NFC East rivals against each other in East Rutherford.
The New York Giants are coming off of a very successful season overall, not only posting a winning record in 2022 but also going on the road to Minnesota and winning a playoff game. Brian Daboll was recognized as the NFL’s Coach of the Year for his efforts in reviving this franchise but can the Giants follow up that impressive 2022 season by posing a legitimate threat in the East again in 2023?
The Giants re-signed Daniel Jones in the 2023 offseason, an interesting move to say the least. Jones received a pretty hefty new contract from the Giants, preventing him from the franchise tag while also allowing the team to keep Saquon Barkley around.
At least, as of May Barkley is still around…
Will Barkley still be there at the start of the season with a contract dispute? Will the Giants be able to start the year strong against Dan Quinn’s Dallas defense?
The Cowboys are so often overhyped that now that they’re actually good, I think they’re a little underrated. People still love to hate on the Cowboys but this is as good of a roster as Dallas has had in the last 10 or so years. I think the Cowboys are poised to establish themselves as legitimate threats in the NFC to division rival Philadelphia and it starts in prime time during Week 1.
Prediction: Cowboys win 24-19
Buffalo Bills (13-3) @ New York Jets (7-10)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season ends with an absolute banger as the Buffalo Bills — one of the league’s best — travel to New York to face off against the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets.
Josh Allen vs. Aaron Rodgers.
That’s good TV.
Rodgers’ ongoing saga with the Green Bay Packers is now finally over. He’s reunited in New York with his old pal Nathaniel Hackett, former Packers offensive coordinator and more recently head coach of the Denver Broncos. A lot of Broncos fans thought the union between Hackett and Rodgers would take place this past year in Denver, but the Packers weren’t willing to trade Rodgers when he was just a couple of months removed from winning back-to-back MVP awards.
Now, Rodgers and Hackett are with the Jets. They have a chance to give the Bills a serious run for their money in the AFC East, assuming we see more along the lines of 2021 Aaron Rodgers as opposed to 2022 Aaron Rodgers.
Even 2022 Aaron Rodgers would be an upgrade over 2022 Zach Wilson for the Jets. This team was in contention for the playoffs much of last season even with dreadful quarterback play. Now, they’ve got a four-time league MVP. What could go wrong?
The Buffalo Bills, though, are a well-oiled machine. Josh Allen and this Buffalo team have to be taking it at least a bit personal that the Bengals and Chiefs are almost considered by many to be on a different tier than them these days.
Although this is a matchup featuring two elite quarterbacks, it’s also a matchup featuring two defensive-minded head coaches, and good ones at that, in Sean McDermott and Robert Saleh. This could end up being a defensive battle, in the end.
Prediction: Bills win 26-23