NFL Draft 2012: 10 Reasons Why Only One RB Will Be Selected In The 1st-Round

As the NFL Draft draws closer, we’re hearing more and more about draft grades and where certain players will go in the draft. In this week’s 10 Reasons Why, I take a look at the running back class.

1. There’s only one elite running back prospect

This is the most obvious part of the NFL Draft this year. There are some nice running backs available, but Trent Richardson is in a league of his own. There are many comparisons out there but the one I keep hearing regarding Richardson is that he’s the next Adrian Peterson. In terms of pure talent, he should be a top 5 pick. The reason he may not be is because teams are a little gun-shy in regards to running backs — we’ll get to that a bit later.

Richardson could potentially drop as far as 20th, since there are teams with lots of holes at the top of the draft who will want to address other issues first. However, Richardson is a rare talent and someone will take a chance. Predicting this is tough, though, so most people will be conservative and in their mock drafts will let him drop.

2. There are a lot of free agent running backs out there

There is a lot of speculation regarding teams who need running backs. Primarily these teams are the likes of Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Indianapolis. Because of this, there are mocks out there with multiple running backs in the first round. These people forget the plethora of running backs available in free agency. Be sure to take a look at my take on the free agent running backs.

Now it looks like both Matt Forte and Ray Rice will be staying on their own teams, but there are some nice pieces who aren’t too expensive. Marshawn Lynch is the best of them and he may cost a bit, but there are good options like Cedric Benson, Peyton Hillis, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Michael Bush and Ryan Grant.

Any or all these players could end up filling holes on teams in need of a running back. Before I project players into the first round who may not deserve to be there, I want to see where the free agents land.

3. The NFL is full of star running backs who get picked late

Let me run some names by you – Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Frank Gore. These are just a few of the names of running backs who were not selected in the first round. There are others – the likes of Sproles, Murray, Hillis who are right up there also have not been selected high. The point here is one you will hear often – running backs can be found easier than other positions. There are elite running backs who must be taken high — see note 1 — but these are few compared to those found later.

4. The price of failure can be very high

Looking back at drafts past, there are a number of picks that stand out as busts. This is all too often more true of offensive playmakers than most other positions. Quarterback is always a focus here, but running backs have missed rather often also. Some are obvious – Knowshon Moreno and Donald Brown (2009),  Felix Jones (2008), Laurence Maroney (2006). Some less so – Reggie Bush (2006), Marshawn Lynch (2007), Darren McFadden (2008). Any team’s General Manager will tell you that the first rule of drafting in the first round is DON’T MISS. This will be revisited more than once before this article is done.

5. The players involved are risky picks

Let’s look at the candidates to be the second or third running back off the board. First of all – David Wilson. He does possess terrific speed – of that there is no doubt — but when you look at the tape you see over and over that Wilson is a player who only has one move. Now he has developed well and should learn quickly as he has the talent for this, but the issue of being a scheme player will hurt his draft stock.

This is also a real problem for the other player most popularly mocked in the first round — Lamar Miller. In many mock drafts I have seen him going to the Cincinnati Bengals with one of their two picks. I myself have picked him there in the past, but this is a player whose stock has been high because he played well in the Hurricane’s scheme. This doesn’t necessarily suit him to be elite in the pro game. Furthermore, Miller is a back who runs hard but doesn’t lower his head while doing so. This makes him a bigger target and easier to tackle which will cause him real problems in the pro game. So while we have good candidates, the knocks on them will make teams possibly look elsewhere.

6. The 2012 draft class is strong in other areas

Many draft pundits acknowledge there is more first round talent in this year’s draft than we’ve seen in any draft for a number of years. This is bolstered by there being more underclassmen declaring than any year previously. However, there is also a very strong senior class in terms of defensive lineman. ESPN’s Mel Kiper has said that there are at least five defensive tackles he expects to make the first round and there could be up to seven. This alone makes it more difficult for running backs to get drafted.

Then you have the strength at defensive end and linebacker being very high as well as the offensive line being a featured position this year. All told, over half the first round will be made up of these players. When you add in the other positions, there will be tough choices to be made by teams in the first round because of the talent available. Because of this, expect the more marginal positions like running back and tight end to be pushed aside until the second round.

7. The NFL is now a passing league

Let’s face it – gone are the days when the key to winning was to have the best running game possible. More and more we are seeing an emphasis from teams on passing. Ever wonder why there is so much interest in Russell Griffin III? What about the excessive interest in the second tier quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden? This is because teams care about the passing game far more than they used to. Because of this, the value of a good but not great running back has dropped substantially.

The need to draft running backs has been superseded by not only getting good pieces for the passing game, but also by having the ability to defend the passing game. Just another thing to consider here.

8. Drafting is all about value

End of the day, teams are always looking ahead to the picks they have later on. General Managers in the NFL get paid not only based on performance, but also because they are good evaluators not only of top talent, but also of the players available later in the draft. Every year there are players with low draft grades who GMs and coaches fall in love with. So what they will try to do is draft the best player available early in the draft and then later on try and pick up a player who fills a need, but costs them much less making that player far less risky. This is never more true than at the running back position.

Because of the number of running backs who have been found later in the draft, teams are less likely to draft them higher because they think they can find better talent later on. Look at the Washington Redskins in 2011. They had a desperate need at running back, but waited until the fourth round to take Roy Helu, who ended up breaking the Redskins reception record that had been held by Hall Of Famer Art Monk. In the same draft, the Dallas Cowboys waited and got DeMarco Murray in the third round who promptly went on to break NFL records.

9. There are alot of teams who have greater needs than running back

When you look across the league at teams who might draft a running back, they have other positional needs. The Bengals, for example, need help in the secondary as well as along the offensive line. The Browns have needs all over the show and if they draft RG3 you can expect them to draft him someone to throw at like a WR or TE, if they get a second offensive player in the first round. That’s just a pair of examples but it’s the same right throughout the league. When it comes to drafting in the first round, expect teams to look at other areas before running back. The very same reason that Trent Richardson may drop in the draft is why no other running back will go in the first round.

10. Fantasy Football has overstated the worth of certain positions

Look, I love fantasy football. I’m a multiple champion at it myself and it has enhanced my enjoyment of the NFL. One huge detriment of it, however, is that all too often you have players hyped who don’t deserve to be. You look at Tim Tebow. Do you think there’d be nearly as much attention on him if it weren’t for fantasy? The same can be said for the likes of Michael Vick, Dez Bryant and others.

Unfortunately, this influences those who study and try to predict where players will be drafted and it also has an effect on the fans. There is far too much importance placed on certain positions and players because of how they are sensationalized by fantasy. Just the other day I had someone ask me why LaMichael James is rated lower than Jonathan Martin! The one thing you have to remember is that mainstream media are called that because they are designed to appeal to mainstream audiences. Now that fantasy is so popular, you will hear more and more about players that will directly affect fantasy football.

Just the other day you had ESPN Fantasy Analyst Matthew Berry respond to one of my tweets — which showed up on this website — saying he hoped that the word of Washington Redskins Offensive Coordinator was a smokescreen when the coach said he was against moving up for RG3. Why? Because Cam Newton put up such stellar numbers. It is this sort of thinking that is having too great an effect on the way the media will rate certain players when in reality teams will always do what is best for their team.

Disagree with me on this? Hit me up on Twitter @Gizzy_DJ or leave a comment below. I’ll have another 10 Reasons Why for you next Thursday.

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