Tom Brady keeps the late-round QB theory alive, 2nd-3rd round QBs a crapshoot too

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Next, I decided to take a look at the success of second and third-round quarterbacks, and I found that it’s still difficult to find a top starter in these two rounds as well. Below is the full chart of data from Pro-Football Reference with data on first-team All-Pro selections, Pro Bowl selections, and years as the team’s starter.

As you can see, only Brees became an elite QB, but Kaepernick and Wilson should get there at some point in their careers. Outside of those three, only Matt Schaub and Nick Foles can be called “franchise” passers, as the jury is still out on Andy Dalton. As you can see, there’s a mixed bag among this group. We have the three studs, the other quality starters behind them, a host of viable backups (Tarvaris Jackson, Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, and Josh McCown), others we are watching for closely (Geno Smith, Ryan Mallett, and Mike Glennon), and the complete duds. The success rate of quarterbacks in the second and third rounds is markedly better than the success rate of late-round QBs, but only about six or seven of those 34 quarterbacks can say that they’ve been a quality starter at one point in their careers, as six QBs have either been to the Pro Bowl or, in Kaep’s case, should have been in that showcase event. That’s a success rate of maybe 20% at best, but it’s much better than the 2.83% success rate (three out of 106) of finding a starter in a late-round QB. By comparison, 43.2% (16 of 37) first-round QBs since 2000 have become quality starting QBs.

In conclusion, Phil Emery is completely right, and I don’t think we’ll see this year’s group of late-round QBs break the trend. There’s always a chance, but that chance is based off of luck and undevalued skills more than anything else. But since this year’s draft class is deep and plenty of concerns have been thrown at the top QBs like Bridgewater, QBs that slip into the second and third round could make the top of the charts below and join the likes of Wilson and Kaepernick as 2nd and 3rd round QBs who had big success in the NFL after being underrated on the day of the draft.

Misc
Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St ▾ College/Univ
1 2001 2 32 Drew Brees QB SDG 2001 2013 1 8 12 Purdue
2 2004 3 90 Matt Schaub QB ATL 2004 2013 0 2 7 Virginia
3 2011 2 35 Andy Dalton QB CIN 2011 2013 0 1 3 TCU
4 2008 2 57 Chad Henne QB MIA 2008 2013 0 0 3 Michigan
5 2012 3 75 Russell Wilson QB SEA 2012 2013 0 2 2 Wisconsin
6 2010 3 85 Colt McCoy QB CLE 2010 2013 0 0 2 Texas
7 2007 3 92 Trent Edwards QB BUF 2007 2012 0 0 2 Stanford
8 2006 2 49 Kellen Clemens QB NYJ 2006 2013 0 0 2 Oregon
9 2006 2 64 Tarvaris Jackson QB MIN 2006 2013 0 0 2 Alabama St.
10 2002 3 81 Josh McCown QB ARI 2002 2013 0 0 2 Sam Houston St.
11 2001 2 53 Quincy Carter QB DAL 2001 2004 0 0 2 Georgia
12 2013 2 39 Geno Smith QB NYJ 2013 2013 0 0 1 West Virginia
13 2013 3 73 Mike Glennon QB TAM 2013 2013 0 0 1 North Carolina St.
14 2012 3 88 Nick Foles QB PHI 2012 2013 0 1 1 Arizona
15 2011 2 36 Colin Kaepernick QB SFO 2011 2013 0 0 1 Nevada-Reno
16 2010 2 48 Jimmy Clausen QB CAR 2010 2013 0 0 1 Notre Dame
17 2007 2 36 Kevin Kolb QB PHI 2007 2013 0 0 1 Houston
18 2005 3 67 Charlie Frye QB CLE 2005 2009 0 0 1 Akron
19 2005 3 69 Andrew Walter QB OAK 2006 2008 0 0 1 Arizona St.
20 2003 3 97 Chris Simms QB TAM 2004 2009 0 0 1 Texas
21 2012 2 57 Brock Osweiler QB DEN 2012 2013 0 0 0 Arizona St.
22 2011 3 74 Ryan Mallett QB NWE 2011 2013 0 0 0 Arkansas
23 2009 2 44 Pat White QB MIA 2009 2013 0 0 0 West Virginia
24 2008 2 56 Brian Brohm QB GNB 2009 2010 0 0 0 Louisville
25 2008 3 94 Kevin O’Connell QB NWE 2008 2011 0 0 0 San Diego St.
26 2007 2 40 John Beck QB MIA 2007 2011 0 0 0 BYU
27 2007 2 43 Drew Stanton QB DET 2008 2013 0 0 0 Michigan St.
28 2006 3 81 Charlie Whitehurst QB SDG 2006 2013 0 0 0 Clemson
29 2006 3 85 Brodie Croyle QB KAN 2006 2010 0 0 0 Alabama
30 2005 3 85 David Greene QB SEA 0 0 0 Georgia
31 2003 3 88 Dave Ragone QB HOU 2003 2003 0 0 0 Louisville
32 2001 2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo QB OAK 2001 2008 0 0 0 Washington
33 2000 3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi QB SFO 0 0 0 Hofstra
34 2000 3 75 Chris Redman QB BAL 2000 2011 0 0 0 Louisville
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2014.


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Tags: Featured Notes And Analysis Phil Emery Popular Tom Brady

  • NFL Buddha

    I love the way you clowns totally dismiss Matt Cassel. Apart from the year his throwing hand got shattered and the subsequent slow recovery he is a pretty accomplished QB poised for a break-out year in a situation tailor-made for him, When he goes 11-5 or better with a QBR around 95 this year and starts wining playoff games WITHOUT the help of the officials what are you going to write then?

    • http://www.musketfire.com/ Joe Soriano

      I’m confused, do you like him or not? I think you can put him right there in the Garrard range, but it doesn’t really change the larger point. Overall, I probably trivialized his ability in this piece, but this is also a guy who has completed 60% of his passes in just two seasons, whereas Garrard always completed at least 60% of his passes in seasons with at least 200 attempts.

  • Richard Ciesielski

    Joe, I think that your information is interesting but what I don’t get with the information is which years were the drafts strong for the QB’s and which weren’t? I’m not going to throw you under the bus and to me I thank you for even keeping folks talking about football, if anything its neat when people share their heart for the sport, lol. I would think if anything info like this if used by coaches would open their eyes to the training prep their back ups get. Watching Cleveland play I feel a lot of the downfall our QBs suffered was from the mindset that comes with being labeled as the backup rookie. I’m hoping our coaches drill all of our QB’s the same, and not let new guys get to where they’re just going through the motions. Seems like when that happens and they have to step on field they never really have good timing on plays because of the mindset they trained with and never gave it their all like you expect them to when it counts.
    At the end you bring up Bridgewater and with him I think if he comes in as a grateful guy he’ll be a flop.If he comes into the league with a attitude like he’s going to spend the rest of his football days creaming every team who didn’t pick him and enjoy it like a fine steak dinner then he’ll be a winner. I think thats why Brady and Payton Manning are so good and with the QB’s you listed from Cleveland neither of them had that mindset.