Tom Brady keeps the late-round QB theory alive, 2nd-3rd round QBs a crapshoot too

Next, I decided to take a look at the success of second and third-round quarterbacks, and I found that it’s still difficult to find a top starter in these two rounds as well. Below is the full chart of data from Pro-Football Reference with data on first-team All-Pro selections, Pro Bowl selections, and years as the team’s starter.

As you can see, only Brees became an elite QB, but Kaepernick and Wilson should get there at some point in their careers. Outside of those three, only Matt Schaub and Nick Foles can be called “franchise” passers, as the jury is still out on Andy Dalton. As you can see, there’s a mixed bag among this group. We have the three studs, the other quality starters behind them, a host of viable backups (Tarvaris Jackson, Kellen Clemens, Chad Henne, and Josh McCown), others we are watching for closely (Geno Smith, Ryan Mallett, and Mike Glennon), and the complete duds. The success rate of quarterbacks in the second and third rounds is markedly better than the success rate of late-round QBs, but only about six or seven of those 34 quarterbacks can say that they’ve been a quality starter at one point in their careers, as six QBs have either been to the Pro Bowl or, in Kaep’s case, should have been in that showcase event. That’s a success rate of maybe 20% at best, but it’s much better than the 2.83% success rate (three out of 106) of finding a starter in a late-round QB. By comparison, 43.2% (16 of 37) first-round QBs since 2000 have become quality starting QBs.

In conclusion, Phil Emery is completely right, and I don’t think we’ll see this year’s group of late-round QBs break the trend. There’s always a chance, but that chance is based off of luck and undevalued skills more than anything else. But since this year’s draft class is deep and plenty of concerns have been thrown at the top QBs like Bridgewater, QBs that slip into the second and third round could make the top of the charts below and join the likes of Wilson and Kaepernick as 2nd and 3rd round QBs who had big success in the NFL after being underrated on the day of the draft.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/4/2014.

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