I was recently scanning the ADP charts over at Fantasy Football Calculator as I do from time to time. As usual, I came across some head-scratching (to me, anyway) rankings, figures and trends in recent mock drafts.
1. Jimmy Graham’s ADP is No. 9 overall in traditional 10-team leagues — I’m sorry, and with all due respect to the Salem brothers, that’s insane. Graham is coming off one of the best seasons any tight end has ever had and arguably the best of his career so far. That said, he still finished behind three receivers and five running backs in scoring in most traditional fantasy leagues. That’s not a knock on him by any means, as it still made him the 9th best scoring option out of all non-QB skill players. But you also have to figure that you aren’t going to take Graham over the top two quarterbacks — whoever they may be.
This doesn’t even take into account the projections for 2014. According to ESPN, Graham is projected as the 15th best scoring option among non-QB skill players. Furthermore, you have to factor in the addition of Brandin Cooks to the New Orleans offense. I believe it will be Cooks, not Graham, who will inherit the touches and targets that once went to Darren Sproles. I also don’t believe it’s a coincidence that Graham failed to break the 75-yard barrier in any of the Saints’ last five games — a stretch that saw them go 2-3. Defensive coordinators know what he means to the New Orleans offense and are going to be scheming to take him out of the equation.
Look, Jimmy Graham is a great player and probably the top tight end in fantasy football. All I’m saying is that I hope these people who are drafting him in the first round of 10-team leagues are in my league. You should hope so as well — and don’t be one of them.
2. I still feel like Bishop Sankey is being undervalued — I’ve been in love with Sankey since halfway through the 2013 college season. He’s in a perfect situation in Tennessee, where he should be the focal point of the offense — an offense whose greastest strength might be the run-blocking ability of the offensive line. Despite this, guys like Reggie Bush, Gio Bernard and C.J.Spiller — players who aren’t likely to see the touches that Sankey will — are all going ahead of him. The general public is mock drafting him as a low-end RB2. I’ve got him projected as a high-end RB2 with the potential to be a low-end RB1. Keep an eye on his ADP througout the summer.
3. People are putting a lot of faith in Johnny Manziel — Look, I’m driving the Johnny Manziel train as far as people who hope he does well. That said, we don’t even know if he’s going to start for sure. He might not see the field before Week 5 depending on how the Browns are doing. He’s currently going 18th in mocks among all quarterbacks, just ahead of Josh McCown — an almost surefire starter. People need to curb their enthusiasm as far as Manziel’s fantasy prospects go at least until we get into the preseason.