Fantasy Football–The Unreliable Truth: Nick Foles
Many writers and experts will give you analysis and predictions based on absolutes. I can’t do that. It’s not what this column or fantasy football are all about. What we can do is look at past performances of teams and individual players and we hypothesize their best possible outcomes.
This isn’t a draft Nick Foles or don’t draft him column. This is your call. No one picks your team but you. Remember that. If you’re going to take him just make sure it isn’t too early. So many of us fall into this process of falling in love with a guy and then we end up reaching for them in our draft. Last year in my league one of my buddies was infatuated with Aaron Rodgers. All he kept saying was if Rodgers was available to him in the first round he was going to draft him.
He did. Number one. That’s number one overall. Yea, I’m not kidding. He drew the number 1 draft position and before the draft even started he picked Aaron Rodgers. The rest of us as you might imagine busted just a few of his chops. No seriously, we were relentless. He almost cried. I know. I saw it, sort of.
Take a look around. There’s a guy like this in your league to. If you don’t spot him then you might be that guy. This guy either owned Foles last season or he wished he did and he’s been talking about it since the Super Bowl. Nick Foles this, Nick Foles that; “Hey, doesn’t he look kind of like Napoleon Dynamite?”
“OK, when you smile like that you do actually look a little like him.”
If we look at all the evidence we can make our best decision going forward. In 20 games and 16 starts Foles has thrown for 33 TD’s, 7 INT’s and 4,590 yards. In a standard league that works out at about 21-22 fantasy points per game. To put that into perspective Peyton Manning was around 29 points per game. So you see, even though Foles has had stellar games he will eventually balance out.
Many people in and around the league think he can do better this season in Chip Kelly’s offense. Let’s say he improves to 23 or 24 points per game. Then all those Foles optimists would be correct about his progress. RGIII, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck are all projected to do the same thing. They all fall between 21 and 24 fantasy points per game. Pretty safe to say they all won’t be drafted in the fourth round.
That guy in your league doesn’t think about that however. He sees Foles and thinks back to his seven touchdowns game against Oakland. He doesn’t see that Foles had two games of over 400 yards passing and no other games that even surpassed 300 yards. That guy sees the 27 touchdowns and two interceptions but he doesn’t see a missing deep threat like DeSean Jackson. He surely doesn’t see a Jeremy Maclin who is only 11 months removed from a knee injury that takes 18 months to fully recuperate from.
I don’t want you to think I don’t believe in Nick Foles. Quit the opposite. I think he is fully capable of being the fifth best fantasy QB in 2014. I also believe he could be ninth. Adding Darren Sproles will help some since Chip Kelly loves to throw to running backs. Zach Ertz is expected to have a bigger role in the passing game as well. Still, every QB is expected to do better this season. Not all of them will.
My favorite stat about Foles is his completion percentage. It was 64% in 2013. He had four games at 70% or higher. With so few balls hitting the ground he does give you more potential for more fantasy points. He also makes plays with his legs from time to time. He rushed for 221 yards and three TD’s in 2013.
If you draft Foles enjoy it. It’s going to be a fun season. What won’t be fun is when you drafted him in the fourth or fifth round and then miss out on someone like a Cordarrelle Paterson.
“Quick, give me a fist pump but don’t look at the camera. I said DON’T look!”
Don’t forget your questions, comments and concerns go below.