Rob Gronkowski the key against Denver Broncos

The New England Patriots will renew their rivalry with the Denver Broncos tomorrow, and there’s no denying that it’s going to be awesome watching these two AFC heavyweights go at it. There’s little doubt in my mind that the Broncos are the best team in the league right now, while the Patriots are among the few teams behind them looking to vie for that No. 2 or 3 spot.

Ever since imploding on Monday Night Football against a different AFC West team in the Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots have been on fire, with Tom Brady looking every bit of the legend he is. His dominant play has coincided with better blocking up front, Brandon LaFell‘s breakout (though his first big game was against KC), and a return to health for superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski.

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Although Gronk was healthy to start the year and received plenty of looks from Brady, the Patriots best offensive player wasn’t quite himself and showed some rust after tearing his ACL and MCL late last season. In the Patriots first four games, Gronk never caught more than four passes in a game, and his highest single-game total for receiving yards was 44. That said, he did assert himself as an ever-present red zone threat with three touchdowns, and the Pats limited his usage a bit in order to keep him in during key plays. I’m not sure it’s a coincidence that the Patriots worst four games were their first four games.

Ever since that big day against the Cincinnati Bengals (the start of the “last four games”), Gronk has caught at least five passes in each game, and he has four total touchdowns thanks to an amazing three-TD performance last week against the woeful Chicago Bears pass defense. Gronkowski caught six passes for 100 yards and a TD in his 2014 breakout game against the Bengals, he added 94 on seven catches the following week against the Buffalo Bills, put up 5-68-0 on the New York Jets, and blasted Ryan Mundy and the Bears with a whopping nine receptions for 149 yards and three TDs on just nine targets.

Gronk is rolling, and the Patriots passing attack has been one of the best in the NFL ever since he started to come around. With LaFell, Tim Wright, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, RB Shane Vereen, and situational deep threat Brian Tyms also chipping in, the Patriots have plenty of pass-catching depth. Their running game remains a concern, though Jonas Gray did look pretty good against the Bears slumping defense.

The Denver Broncos secondary is one of the most talented in the NFL, and their cornerback trio of Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby has a huge amount of talent, and they have a great safety pairing in T.J. Ward and Rahim Moore covering behind them. That said, I don’t see anyone on that defense capable of matching up against Gronkowski, because it’s just too difficult to take him out of the game when there are other players (like Wright) worth keeping a close eye on.

When the Broncos and Patriots faced off in the regular season last year, Gronkowski caught seven passes for 96 yards and a touchdown on seven targets, and I see a similarly productive day on the horizon for the NFL’s best tight end. With 40 receptions for 558 yards and seven touchdowns, Gronk is at his best, and he’s the current league leader among TEs for receiving yards. He’s averaging about 70 receiving yards per game, and that number will only rise as the season goes on; his stats aren’t as impressive as they will be, simply because he started the season with some rust due to a 2013 injury.

That severe knee injury last season was the death-knell to the Patriots Super Bowl hopes, and a comparison of the team’s regular season victory over the Broncos and their playoff loss to Denver shows you just how much Gronkowski means to this team. I don’t think there’s a pass-catcher who means more to their respective team than Gronkowski means to the Patriots, especially with a key offensive player on the Patriots already done for the year in feature back Stevan Ridley.

It’s never easy to predict a winner when the Patriots and Broncos face off, and their regular season battle last year was a perfect example of that; the Patriots shocked almost all of us with their comeback. Although there’s plenty of uncertainty when prognosticating this matchup, it’s safe to say that Rob Gronkowski will have a profound impact on what happens tomorrow, as he is arguably the Patriots biggest key to victory.

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