Atlanta Falcons Friday Fades: Desmond Trufant, Week 11 preview
The Atlanta Falcons snapped a five-game losing streak by defeating the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their first game back from the bye, and they’ll face another struggling NFC South team in the Carolina Panthers, fresh off of losses to the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles, this week. This week’s “Friday Fades” takes a look ahead at the Falcons battle with the Panthers, and it also takes a look at some storylines that have developed over the course of the 2014 season.
1. Getting the pass rush rolling again
Last week, the Falcons pass rush was on fire, and Kroy Biermann and Osi Umenyiora ravaged an overmatched Buccaneers offensive line. They’ll face a similarly sub-standard front Sunday, as the Panthers simply have no clue how to keep Cam Newton protected. They’re also struggling with generating push in the running game, but their inability to give Newton adequate time is even more troublesome. The Falcons pass rush isn’t exactly good, and they are as inconsistent as they come. However, they showed last week that they are indeed capable of overpowering a significantly inferior offensive line, and the Panthers could be their next victim.
2. Kelvin Benjamin vs. Robert Alford
I’ll get to him in detail later, but Falcons No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant hasn’t disappointed after a monster rookie season out of Washington. Fellow young CB Robert Alford, however, has been a significant liability in coverage this season, and this has undermined the fact that he’s shown solid ball skills. Alford is coming off of his worst game of the season, as Bucs rookie wideout Mike Evans continued his scorching pace, popping off over 100 receiving yards with most of his big plays coming against the Falcons No. 2 corner. The Falcons don’t use Trufant to shadow the opposition’s top receivers, but maybe they should consider doing that at some point this season. It’s not that Alford is that bad; it’s just that Trufant is that good.
Anyway, Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin added two total garbage-time touchdowns last week against the Eagles, but his play this season has been anything but garbage. He drops too many passes and has a low catch rate, but he’s also made some incredible plays and has consistently shown off his elite physical tools and massive catch radius. Benjamin can make plays that 90% of the wide receivers in this league don’t have a prayer at making, and it’s this playmaking ability that makes him such a matchup nightmare for defenses.
When Benjamin is lined up against Trufant, I don’t think he’ll be able to do much damage against the Falcons defense, unless if breaks loose further downfield, where Newton’s arm can easily hit him up for a huge gain. But when he faces Alford, then safety is off for the Falcons secondary.
3. Keep an eye on Desmond Trufant
When Trufant came into the league, I had a feeling he would have a good career ahead of him, but I had no idea he would immediately show No. 1 corner ability, which is extremely rare for a rookie (contrary to what Jason Verrett and Kyle Fuller have made you think). He doesn’t have any interceptions this season (he should have had one last week, but it bounced off his chest and turned into a reception for Vincent Jackson), but that’s yet another reason why to avoid looking at INTs too closely when evaluating a top cornerback. Trufant simply doesn’t get the opportunity to rack up easy INTs, as opposing quarterbacks already respect him and would much rather try their hand against Alford. After defending 17 passes last season, Trufant is on a similar pace with eight this year, and he’s a big reason why the Falcons are better, in comparison to the rest of the league, at covering No. 1 receivers than No. 2 or 3 guys.
Despite that dropped-pick snafu last week, Trufant did a really nice job against Jackson in coverage overall. Look, more people would be talking about him if the rest of the players around him on defense weren’t performing at such a low level. He’s one of the more underrated players in the league, and I hope he ends up in the “top-15 CB” conversation at this point next season. The Falcons may have the worst pass defense in the NFL, but Trufant is a fully legit bright spot.
4. Roddy White steps it up
There was a point this season when I started to get worried about Roddy White, because he wasn’t playing well at all. His catch rate is still under 60%, per Advanced Football Analytics, but he’s gotten back on track in the past three weeks after clunkers in the previous three games. The turn-around started with 100 receiving yards against the Baltimore Ravens, and he followed that up with a combined 11 receptions for 138 yards and a TD against the Detroit Lions and Buccaneers.
White currently sports a steady average of 7.4 yards per attempt, and the Falcons desperately need him to play well in tandem with Julio Jones, who blew up a terrible, Alterraun Verner-less Bucs secondary last week. The passing attack is obviously the lifeblood of this Falcons team, since they can’t count on the offensive line, Steven Jackson, or the defense to help them out. Matt Ryan, however, has to be able to count on Jones and White, and getting better efficiency out of a now-healthy Harry Douglas (just 6.8 yards per target) would also help.
5. Importance of this game
I hate dubbing games “must-win” games, mostly because it’s so rare that a game is a “must-win” game, and when a game is that critical for a team to win, then that becomes blatantly obvious. Therefore, I don’t see Sunday’s game against the Panthers as a “must-win” tilt for the Atlanta Falcons, but it’s critical for their success in the NFC South. As weird as it may seem, the Falcons are just one game back from the division-leading Saints, who are 4-5. While they are rising, the Falcons are a slightly better team than their 3-6 record, based on statistics from Pro-Football Reference such as SRS and Expected W-L.
If the Falcons win this game, then they have a nice advantage, because they have a shot at getting a season sweep over the Panthers, whom they face in Week 17. While that game is more important since the most recent game has a bigger effect on playoff tiebreakers, it’s still important for the Falcons to win this week. If they can, they will push the Panthers back into third, taking second place to themselves.