A.J. Green could expose Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary

The Cincinnati Bengals now have a talented wide receiver duo on their hands following the emergence of Mohamed Sanu during A.J. Green’s absence with an aggravated toe injury, which is a huge key for Andy Dalton given the season-ending injuries to Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert. Green returned to the starting lineup in Week 9, and after two games to shake off the rust, he has been absolutely phenomenal. After roasting the New Orleans Saints with six receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown, Green was even better last week against inferior competition with 12 receptions for 121 yards in a win over the Houston Texans.

Green could have a similarly huge day against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense, which has been notoriously burn-prone this season. Alterraun Verner hasn’t even been a true bright spot, but the fact that he has been OK means that he is indeed clearly their best DB. The Buccaneers Cover 2 scheme suits him perfectly, but the problem is that the fact that they don’t use a shutdown corner leaves them vulnerable to No. 1 receivers.

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What do I mean by that? I think we can all agree that Green is an elite receiver, and so if you aren’t shadowing him with a shutdown corner, he can pick apart a weaker matchup against a CB2 like, say, Johnthan Banks. It’s not that Banks is a terrible player, but he’s clearly not going to be able to stop Green. The way you stop Green is by locking him up with a shutdown CB like Joe Haden in pure man-to-man coverage, because he eats zone coverage alive as arguably the NFL’s premier route-runner. Since the Buccaneers safeties are liabilities in coverage, Green should have an especially easy time finding soft spots in the zones, in addition to asserting his dominance over the likes of Dashon Goldson.

The schematic disadvantage for the Buccaneers isn’t as easy to see as the statistical disadvantage, which is quite pronounced. According to Football Outsider’s DVOA, the Bucs are the second-worst team in the NFL at stopping No. 1 receivers and in the bottom five against No. 2 receivers, which doesn’t bode well against Mohamed Sanu either. Sanu hasn’t been electric since Green’s re-integration as the No. 1 guy, but he did haul in five passes on seven targets for 48 yards and a TD in a solid, chain-moving outing against Houston. He’s more than capable of doing well against a secondary that is allowing 6.8 net yards per attempt (24th in the NFL) with a 21:8 TD:INT ratio allowed.

Based on how he’s played in each of the past two weeks, A.J. Green is on fire, and that will make it that much more difficult for the Buccaneers to contain him on Sunday. Green is averaging over 15 yards per reception, and it’s that playmaking ability that should really worry the Bucs defense. Goldson isn’t exactly the best coverage safety around, so that’s something Green and the Bengals will need to take advantage of.

It’s important to note that the Buccaneers pass defense isn’t some hopeless unit, because they played well against the Chicago Bears. Verner shut down whichever top receiver the Bears threw at him, and the safeties managed to keep everything in front of them. It’s important to note, however, that the Bears are running some stupid, ineffective dink-and-dunk offense, and let’s just say that I don’t think Hue Jackson will do the same on Sunday.

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can play as well as they did last week in coverage and hold Green in check, then they could put themselves in an excellent position to pull off the upset. Sanu has shown that he can carry a passing attack on his own, but if Green is held in check, then that probably means Dalton forced some bad throws to his number one target that were ripe for the “picking”. Like Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, Dalton will always try to feed Green, whether or not he’s open.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be exposed by A.J. Green

By Kevin Parvizi | Nov 29, 2014