Dallas Cowboys: Replacing an Aging Jason Witten

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It’s fourth down and six, the Dallas Cowboys have the football on the Lion’s 42 yard line, Dallas is down 20-17 with six minutes left in the 2014 NFC Wild Card Game. Quarterback Tony Romo drops back and finds.. you guessed it.. Jason Witten, for the crucial 4th down conversion. In a game full of important moments, this was arguably the biggest play of the game, and Romo looked, predictably, to his reliable tight end.

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The Cowboys would go on to win this game, their first playoff victory since 2009, and Witten’s sturdy play was an integral part of the victory. You could make an entire highlight reel simply of Jason Witten 3rd and 4th down conversions over the years, and he’s still going at it with strength and reliability. He is, unfortunately, slowing down a little bit.

Anyone who has watched Witten over the years has surely noticed a decline in his down-field receptions, and an increase in the short check-down plays he’s been a part of. In fact, his 64 catches for 703 yards in 2014 is the lowest stat-line Witten has put up since his 35 catches for 347 yards in 2003, his rookie year.

The Cowboys were certainly a run-first team in 2014, with running back DeMarco Murray being the league’s leading rusher by over 500 yards. Also, Dez Bryant has emerged in the last few years as arguably the league’s best wide receiver, and receivers Cole Beasley and Terrance Williams have also become excellent targets for Romo. So while part of this dip in production can be attributed to the emergence of other weapons in the Dallas offense, the other major factor that must be considered is Witten’s age.

At 33, Witten is past his prime, even though he is still considered by many one of the best tight ends in the game. It’s possible that he plods along successfully for several more years like former Kansas City and Atlanta tight end Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez managed to play for 17 years, remaining an important contributor to his team throughout his entire career. In his final season (at age 37), Gonzalez finished fourth among tight ends in receiving yards with 859, showing that continued production for Witten is indeed possible. Gonzalez also faced a significant drop in production late in his career (at age 34), before rebounding to have three more excellent years.

While this type of resurgence is certainly possible from Witten, the overall trend of players in their 30s seems to suggest that Witten’s days as a top talent are nearing their end. Without Witten, the Cowboys still have some excellent targets, but would be missing that reliable, tough, short yardage converter in the middle of the field.

Dallas currently has four other tight ends on their roster, each of whom shows the potential to be an excellent contributor to the team, but which, if any, of them can step in and fill the Jason Witten sized hole that will likely be open in the not-so-distant future?

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