San Francisco 49ers: Don’t sleep on Torrey Smith

The San Francisco 49ers will have to figure out who their starting quarterback will be in 2016, especially since Colin Kaepernick would reportedly like to leave the team, and new head coach Chip Kelly has inherited a pretty barren cupboard at the wide receiver position, making Laquon Treadwell nearly as popular of a mock draft option for San Francisco as quarterbacks Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch, and Carson Wentz.

Though the San Francisco 49ers need an upgrade at wide receiver with Anquan Boldin set to hit free agency and youngsters like DeAndre Smelter, Quinton Patton, and Bruce Ellington unproven, Kelly will have one receiver he can count on in Torrey Smith.

Related Story: Who are the biggest busts in NFL draft history?

In the 2015 offseason, Smith was the 49ers biggest free agent addition, as the Niners signed him to a hefty five-year, $40 million contract with $22 million in guarantees. As Jeremy Maclin can attest, starting-caliber wideouts are paid handsomely on the open market, and Marvin Jones will soon become one of the next players to reap that reward.

More from San Francisco 49ers

• 49ers 7th-round pick turning out to be an absolute NFL Draft steal
• San Francisco 49ers almost did the unthinkable in 2022
• 3 reasons why Trey Lance could be labeled a bust after 2023
• The San Francisco 49ers’ quarterback situation is exhausting
• Sam Darnold could be the diamond in the rough for the 49ers

Smith’s earnings were boosted by the fact that he’s one of the NFL’s best vertical threats, and the 49ers were excited to pair him with his old teammate in Boldin, who has long been one of the league’s steadiest receivers. Boldin was the lone bright spot in the 49ers anemic passing attack in the 2014 season, as Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis were horrible. Stevie Johnson chipped in nicely, but Boldin’s crisp 83/1,062/5 line shined the brightest.

Last season, Boldin led the 49ers with 69 catches for 789 yards and four touchdowns as the only stable component of the offense with Carlos Hyde injured, but Smith quietly put together strong numbers despite playing with quarterbacks who were limited in their ability to take advantage of his speed and explosiveness.

Smith was targeted a laughable 62 times last season, turning those targets into just 33 receptions (somehow the second-most on the 49ers). That might seem like an inefficient haul, but, of course, you probably aren’t fooled by that. No, you know that Smith is perennially one of the league leaders in yards per reception, having averaged nearly 17 yards per catch during his four years with Joe Flacco sending passes in his direction.

With a whopping 20.1 yards per reception, Smith was the NFL’s leader in YPR, and it’s a rather inexplicable number…in a good way. While I understand that a low number of targets can help a deep threat’s yards per reception deviate even further from the mean, it’s important to understand just how difficult it is to average 20 yards per catch. In 2013 and 2014, the only wideouts to hit this number were Kenny Stills and DeSean Jackson, respectively, who are also two of the best vertical threats in the game.

Smith’s speed, explosiveness, and agility can also translate to shorter passes in which he’s tasked with making something happen after the catch, and he showed in 2014 that he can be a real red zone weapon, finishing tied with Demaryius Thomas for tenth with 11 receiving TDs.

I could see Kelly making Smith a focal point of his offense, aggressively taking full advantage of a player who was a premier game-changer the last time he had a good QB with a cannon arm. The 49ers, of course, don’t need to add a strong-armed quarterback in order to find a way for Smith to become a big part of the offense, and it shouldn’t be a tough decision for Kelly to get the ball into his hands more than 33 times.

Now that’s a killer stat, and, again, maybe Smith’s efficiency numbers look better because of his lack of targets, but that stat blows my mind nonetheless. Remember, the 49ers QBs combined for an 82.6 QB Rating last season, so Smith surely had his work cut out for him. It’s also easier to throw interceptions or incomplete passes on deep throws, and QB Rating is heavily skewed towards completion percentage and INT%.

The nature of Smith’s role caused him to catch just 53.2% of everything thrown at him, but his monstrous yards per reception average allowed him to put up 10.7 yards per target. That’s pretty darn good, and it explains why the 49ers quarterbacks had such a high QB Rating when they did target him.

In 2014, Smith was helped by the attention star Steve Smith Sr. took off of him, but he was literally the only bright spot on the 2013 Ravens offense as the focal point of the team. It’s risky to assume that he can lead the way, which is why re-signing Boldin or drafting a player with size and skill like Treadwell will be important, but I wonder if Kelly will be intrigued by the numbers.

More nfl spin zone: Who are the greatest TEs in NFL history?

It’s easy to look at Smith’s lack of raw production last season and big contract and come away with the idea that he disappointed. However, if used properly and given a much better quarterback, Smith could have a huge rebound season as far as box score stats are concerned, and he’s the type of player who can break things open for the rest of the offense. Kelly should value him appropriately, and the 49ers could have a nice supporting cast on their hands if they get/keep a big receiver, use Smith wisely, and secure a semi-breakout season from someone like Smelter, whom they reportedly like, or Ellington.