Atlanta Falcons: The Deion Jones gamble

Taking Florida safety Keanu Neal in the first round seems like a bigger leap of faith than drafting a linebacker who ran a 4.38 forty at his pro day in the second round, but the Atlanta Falcons are gambling more on Deion Jones by penciling him in as a Day 1 starter at the middle linebacker position.

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If there were two things Atlanta Falcons fans wanted more than anything else in the NFL Draft, they were a pass rusher and a speedy linebacker. The Falcons did not address either need in the first round, though taking a punishing in-the-box safety at No. 17 somewhat fulfilled the second of those desires. Instead, the Falcons waited until the second round to draft LSU Tigers linebacker Deion Jones, and Dan Quinn and the coaching staff have big plans for him.

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According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s D. Orlando Ledbetter, the Falcons will play Jones at middle linebacker. Notice how Quinn said nothing about Jones starting. And notice how this doesn’t seem to phase me.

Look, we know who Paul Worrilow is at this stage, and there’s just no way he changes after three years of thoroughly overrated (at least nationally) play. Once touted as one of the league’s best young linebackers, Worrilow is just a box score-padder without Paul Posluszny‘s reliability, essentially making him a missed tackle-prone liability in coverage. Last season, Worrilow’s tackle count plummeted down to 97 in Quinn’s first year running the show, and there’s little doubt in my mind that the current staff is done with him.

Worrilow and Jones will “compete” for the starting middle linebacker gig in Atlanta, and I‘ll let Blogging Dirty’s Eric Robinson explain my usage of quotation marks.

So why is this a gamble? Because for as gifted as Jones is athletically, he might not be ready to start in this league as a rookie. The Falcons are hoping to rid themselves of Worrilow at the MIKE position, trusting that an undersized player with just one year of starting experience can do the job.

I don’t blame the Falcons for viewing their second-round pick as their solution at the middle linebacker position, but given his size concerns, the risk is only increased. I highly doubt the Falcons are interested in giving Worrilow significant snaps again, because while they didn’t field an elite run defense last season, 4.0 yards per carry allowed is nothing disgusting. If Jones is downgrade on Worrilow in run defense, which should not be the case, then he will more than make up for it by providing the Falcons with much-needed coverage chops.

No Falcons fans will forget the fact that this team could not cover running backs to save themselves, and the most telling stat comes from Football Outsiders. Dead last in DVOA allowed to running backs last season, the Falcons surrendered a league-high 59.8 receiving yards per game to opposing RB.

How bad is that? Well, beyond the fact that it was the worst mark in the NFL, Atlanta gave up more yards to running backs than No. 2 receives. Additionally, they gave up 66.6 yards per game to tight ends, more than the number of yards they allowed No. 1 wide receivers to put up on them!

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Jones is expected to be the key ingredient in the antidote, which is why they have to count on him to beat out Worrilow and show that he can overcome his lack of size, strength at the point of attack, and experience to be a true every-down starter for this resurgent defense. It’s a gamble, but Falcons fans have reasons to be optimistic about Jones’s tools and Quinn’s plan to put his second-round pick’s gifts into action.