San Francisco 49ers: The pretend hype around Blaine Gabbert

Basically everyone gets hype in the offseason, but the team-based praise around San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert is on another level of superficial optimism.

If Chip Kelly can make a winner out of the San Francisco 49ers, then every ill word spoken of him during the 2015 regular season will be forgotten. While the 49ers have talent on the defensive side of the ball in the likes of DeForest Buckner, Ian Williams, Aaron Lynch, Tramaine Brock, and Eric Reid, their offense hardly inspires confidence.

With an offensive line carried that will likely be carried by two players (Joe Staley and first-round rookie Josh Garnett), the 49ers will cross their fingers, hoping that Carlos Hyde can stay healthy for all 16 games. Hyde and the running game will have to #WinTheDay for Kelly, especially because the 49ers two big passing game upgrades in the draft were project quarterback Jeff Driskel and Day 3 slot receiver Aaron Burbridge. Remember, this was a team that was expected to pursue passing game upgrades in the first two rounds, either in the form of a top QB (Paxton Lynch, perhaps) or WR (Josh Doctson was one name).

The 49ers aren’t bereft of talent at the wide receiver position, but everyone behind Torrey Smith is a dice roll. Smith just might be the most underrated mainstream wideout in the league, and he should be headed for a big breakout year under Kelly, who oversaw highly successful seasons from vertical threats DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin on the Philadelphia Eagles.

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Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington, DeAndre Smelter, Eric Rogers, and DeAndrew White all have varying degrees of talent, but none of those five receivers fighting for a role can be called proven.

And the quarterback the 49ers are counting on to make playmakers out of their young wideouts? Blaine Gabbert.

With Colin Kaepernick sulking- and it’s hard not to blame him for having trust issues with an organization that has pushed everyone out…from Jim Harbaugh to Anthony Davis– and Driskel not close to being ready to play in this league, the offseason praise rests on Gabbert.

First, some vague drivel from Kelly.

#49ers Chip Kelly said he has been impressed with Blaine Gabbert
— Anthony DiMoro (@AnthonyDiMoro) March 26, 2016

I’m guessing he’s impressed Gabbert can actually throw a football, based on what he’s probably heard about this guy.

The funny thing about the kind things people say about Gabbert is the fact that he earns this praise after an underwhelming year. But because it’s Gabbert, subpar play looks wildly effective, as we have come to expect nothing short of the extraordinarily awful from the former Jacksonville Jaguars mega-bust.

Let’s play a game called “Quarterback A” and “Quarterback B”.

Player A: 60.5 CMP%, 4.0 TD%, 2.1 INT%, 7.0 Y/A, 210.6 YPG, 86.4 QB Rating, 60.16 ESPN TQBR

Player B: 63.1 CMP%, 3.5 TD%, 2.5 INT, 7.2 Y/A, 253.9 Y/G, 86.2 QB Rating, 42.59 ESPN TQBR

Yes, “Player B” is “B” for “Blaine” in 2015, and “Player A” is Colin Kaepernick in 2014, the year in which everyone turned against him (just as the organization around him combusted from the heat emanated from Jed York’s head).

It’s funny how people say, “Kaepernick has really struggled,” while also stating, “Wow, Gabbert might be something,” when both had nearly identical numbers. Gabbert threw for more yardage and averaged more yards per attempt, but Kaepernick did a better job of taking care of the ball and seemed to have been slightly more effective at moving the offense, in part because he is a fantastic rusher.

November 29, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) passes the football against the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter at Levi

Since games get out of hand in the second half, let’s compare both quarterbacks first half stats from 2014 and 2015 to try and get rid of some “garbage time” numbers.

Kaepernick in 1st Quarter: 7.8 Y/A, 7 TD, 2 INT, 100.7 QB Rating

Gabbert in 1st Quarter: 5.1 Y/A, 1 TD, 1 INT, 79.9 QB Rating

Kaepernick in 2nd Quarter: 8.5 Y/A, 7 TD, 2 INT, 100.3 QB Rating

Gabbert in 2nd Quarter: 6.3 Y/A, 5 TD, 3 INT, 81.5 QB Rating

Recently, 49ers tight end Garrett Celek said that Gabbert has been “taking control” of the workouts, per CSN Bay Area.

In other words, as expected, he’s the early favorite to start, but, of course, it’s all too easy for a quarterback to “take control” of simple pitch-and-catch early in the offseason.

New guard Zane Beadles had this to say about Gabbert, “He carries himself very well in the locker room. He seems like a true professional. He’s always in there studying and he knows what we’re trying to accomplish and what he needs to do at the quarterback position. I’ve seen all good things from him.”

As far as praise goes, that’s about as lackluster as it gets. Essentially, Gabbert is the de facto starter, and everyone in the building is trying to convince themselves that he can hold down the fort without embarrassing things. Considering this is the guy who targeted Shaun Draughn, Vance McDonald, and Patton more often than his best weapon, Smith, last season, they might have to hope for a miracle from Chip, Kaep, or both.

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Gabbert at his best is Kaepernick at his worst, and his “best” was a garbage time-driven, small sample that could be torn to shreds if he’s forced to start for a full season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see writers post headlines like, “What if Gabbert is actually good?”, but the value he provides is as a leader and stopgap. Just by showing up to work as a professional, Gabbert is doing his job, because putting any expectations on such a chronic under-performer with no real praiseworthy tools would be grotesquely optimistic.