AFC East
New England Patriots: Maybe still too early
It might still be a year too early for the New England Patriots, who did make a ton of additions and are on the right track, but 2026 might be the year where this team gets back into the playoffs, as there is a lot of newness.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
This may seem harsh, but it's the truth. Tua Tagovailoa staying on the field for all 17 games can be enough for the Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs, but he has struggled to do that, and he might not be able to in 2025. If that is the case, the Dolphins won't make the playoffs.
New York Jets: See above, but Justin Fields
Justin Fields isn't a good quarterback and obviously is not a franchise QB. The rest of the roster is quite good, but the QB will be their undoing.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen develops catastrophic turnover problem
This probably won't happen, but Josh Allen does have the turnover gene in him.
AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders: QB isn't good enough, and the defense still isn't efficient
Geno Smith isn't a great QB, and the Las Vegas Raiders defense really isn't all that great on paper. Those two factors could keep them out of the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers: Injury bug
The LA Chargers franchise has dealt with injuries during seasons before - they have also dealt with major injuries that throw giant wrenches into their season.
Denver Broncos: Sophomore slump from Bo Nix
Some may be predicting this, as Bo Nix could endure a sophomore year slump, and it could be bad enough that the Denver Broncos miss the playoffs entirely after getting back in 2024.
Kansas City Chiefs: Slim margins catch up to them in 2025
Another one that probably won't happen, but if the Chiefs only won about half of their one-score games, they don't seem nearly as good. Their slim margins could impact them in the opposite direction in 2025.