According to ESPN Insider Adam Schefter, his sources have confirmed what the NFL community has long suspected and assumed – the St Louis Rams are committed to trading the number 2 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.
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With the performance of franchise quarterback nominee Russell Griffin III at the NFL Combine yesterday, the Rams have seized the momentum of Griffin’s blistering 40 yard dash time to start looking around for possible suitors. The bad news for prospective buyers – the price likely just went up.
Until now, it was thought that while trading up was likely to be expensive it would be affordable enough for multiple teams to manage. The Washington Redskins and Cleveland Browns were thought to be the primary options with the Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks and the late entry Kansas City Chiefs likely to also vie for the pick.
That has now changed.
It is now believed that any trade up to the number 2 spot will be similar to the deal between the San Diego Chargers and New York Giants some years back that sent Eli Manning to the Big Apple. That trade cost the Giants two first round picks, a third round pick and a fifth round pick.
The popular thinking until now has been that the Cleveland Browns would make the trade up as they have two first round picks in this year’s draft. It was believed other teams would at most offer one first and one second round pick. With the trade now almost certain to cost two first round picks, all teams are back in play as RG3 is now deemed to be worth the expense.
So who is best placed to make a move?
The favorite is still Cleveland but their margin has narrowed considerably. The advantage they once had is gone. However, they still have the upper hand due to that second first round pick for 2012. Why? Rather than offer both their first round picks in this year’s draft, they can choose to trade their top pick from 2012 and their first from 2013. This would leave them with a first round pick to work with at 22 and they could choose to use this pick either to help supplement their team or to trade down for more picks.
The Washington Redskins are next in the queue and they have something the Browns don’t – the ability to sacrifice a draft. In 2011, the Redskins won the draft overall in the eyes of many draft pundits as they hit on every single pick they made. They also did very well at trading down and acquiring more picks – no mean feat when going into draft day they were missing half their picks due to trades. Of their twelve 2011 picks, 4-5 of them are projected as starters in 2012 and all but one – Markus White – are certain to be a part of the 2012 squad. Because of this, the Redskins can afford to take a chance and trade away their entire draft should they choose to.
Of the remaining teams thought to be in the hunt, the Seahawks are least likely due to choosing not to interview Griffin at the Combine. The Miami Dolphins have shown interest all off season and had the good news at the combine that they had won their coin-flip with Carolina for the 8th overall draft pick. The team certainly has the depth to accommodate a trade and arguably the best system for RG3 to work in but they do not have a very favorable draft position.
This brings us to the last team – the Kansas City Chiefs. Their Head Coach Romeo Crennel has stated at the Combine that he may be looking for another quarterback and this was backed up by the Chiefs choosing to interview RG3 which was a surprise. It is not yet known how serious Kansas City is about acquiring the former Baylor quarterback and until we learn more about their intentions, the Chiefs will remain the dark horse of this race.
One thing is certain – the St Louis Rams will trade down. The only question is – who with?
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