As the initial hue and cry over this weekend’s historic trade between the St Louis Rams and Washington Redskins dies down a little, it’s time to start looking at the trade with a little more depth and hopefully a little more wisdom as opposed to the knee-jerk reactions we saw as the news broke.
First of all, let’s make one thing clear — we still don’t officially know the extent of the trade itself. The details that have been leaked show the Redskins trading away their 2013 and 2014 first round picks, as well as their second round pick this year in order to swap picks with St Louis to enable them to get a quarterback.
As of right now, we don’t know that those details are 100% correct. There may be a few small picks involved possibly and it has happened before that we have things like this announced and then when the paperwork goes through we find out there was more to it. So, be cautious.
The next point is the one I feel is the most important thing you have to know about this trade — we cannot judge this trade either as paying to move up four spots in the draft or by analyzing Robert Griffin III and debating whether or not he is worth it. That kind of thinking is far too subjective and as such no matter who you speak to you will never get an explanation that isn’t biased in some way by these factors.
The final point before looking at the trade itself is to make an important distinction – this trade was not for three first round picks. The actual cost in the trade was that Washington surrendered to first round picks and a second round pick for the right to swap their current first round pick for that of St Louis. The 2012 first round pick is therefore not a part of the cost as it’s value is a part of the overall value of what they receive.
So what is it that we need to be talking about? Simply this – the price that was paid was to buy a franchise quarterback. That’s it. Forget who the player is, forget how far the Redskins moved up and certainly forget every piece of analysis you have heard that includes either of these factors. The focus of discussion surrounding this trade must be whether or not the price paid was acceptable in order to obtain a franchise quarterback.
To begin working out if the price was correct, we look to history. When was the last time that a team made an active trade for a franchise quarterback? Some would argue that this was the Donovan McNabb trade. This is incorrect for one reason — the price of the trade was far too low. The fact the Redskins got McNabb so cheaply tells you to move on. The next trade we come to and the trade that lays a benchmark for this one – when Jay Cutler was sent to Chicago.
For those who need reminding, Jay Cutler began his career with the Denver Broncos and played there for three years as a starting quarterback. He had one terrific year in which he threw for 4500 yards and reached the Pro Bowl. At the time the trade occurred, he was deemed to be a franchise quarterback and with head coach Mike Shanahan — six degree of separation? — having been fired, Cutler was traded to the Chicago Bears along with a fifth round pick for the Bears first and third round picks that year, their first round pick the following year and struggling starting quarterback Kyle Orton.
Looking at the Cutler trade, you can see similarities. Two first round picks as payment is common to both trades. Then if you take the value of the fifth round pick the Broncos gave up away from that of the third round pick and the value of Kyle Orton, you can then compare that to the second round pick the Redskins gave up. Again, the values are comparable. So believe it or not, the price paid by the Redskins was almost exactly the same as that paid for Cutler and as such isn’t as outrageous as you might think.
No doubt that making a trade of this nature is a massive risk. Just look at Chicago – it can be argued that despite Jay Cutler’s talent they still haven’t got the value back that they paid for him after the three seasons he has played for the Bears. Further to this, the jury is still out on whether Cutler will EVER be worth his trade price. The important point to note is that the Bears needed Cutler and they did what they had to do to get him. This thought leads nicely to the next point.
If there is one thing that was blatantly obvious about the Washington Redskins in 2011, it was that they desperately needed a decent quarterback. As I mentioned in my You Heard It Here First column about the Redskins, there could easily have been a playoff push for this team had they managed to convert good play into points and wins that were squandered by the poor play of Rex Grossman and John Beck. Reminding you to ignore who the Skins are trading for and their position in the draft, ask yourself this question – if you are the Washington Redskins, what would you be prepared to do to get that quarterback you need?
As it turns out, they paid exactly as much as they had to. It has been reported that the Cleveland Browns made an offer involving three first round picks. Right away, this tells us that the price the Redskins paid was the result of the alleged bidding war between themselves and Cleveland. So this makes something very obvious to me – the price the Redskins paid becomes irrelevant. This may sound bizarre when you say “they gave up three top picks!!!” but in reality what they did was pay to get the franchise quarterback they needed and they paid exactly what they had to.
Finally, there is the flow-on effect of this trade to free agency. If you look at the Redskins roster before the trade, it’s nice but needs work. The Redskins need to make a splash in free agency. As the team was, they could have thrown money at the top free agents but for some this may not have been enough. Players like Carl Nicks for example may have said no to Washington simply based on the fact the team had no quarterback. With the arrival of the #2 pick, the Washington Redskins are now a legitimate contender to compete in the NFC East and as such this will make the franchise far more attractive to perspective free agents. The value of this aspect of the trade is something that cannot be properly calculated or quantified but it is something that could potentially offset the cost of obtaining the pick.
As a Washington Redskins fan myself, I am very excited by the trade. I am also very very scared for my team as we gave up A LOT to draft our quarterback. Heck, there is still a small chance the Indianapolis Colts draft Robert Griffin III and the Redskins get Andrew Luck – extremely unlikely but you never know.
As a sports writer, I can honestly look at this trade and say this trade makes sense because in the end the Redskins got their man. Whether it works out or not is still in the future and the debate on that is only just beginning. What is clear right now is this – the Washington Redskins have made the major move that they had to make to try and become competitive once again.
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