NFL Free Agency 2012: Four Bold Predictions

1. Matt Forte will be franchise tagged — and will still change teams

You all think I’m crazy on this one. How can a player that is franchise tagged possibly change teams? Why would a player agree to this?

Under the CBA, any player who is franchise tagged can be signed by another team. That team must then surrender two first round draft picks to the team who loses their player.

Forte has clearly stated that he does not want to be tagged. Furthermore, he wants to discuss a new long-term deal. The Chicago Bears have ignored both of these statements and largely ignored what their star player wants. Clearly, Forte could be got by a team willing to pay.

Who might be willing to make the sacrifice necessary to obtain Forte’s services? There are three teams who have two first round picks in the 2012 NFL Draft — the Cincinnati Bengals, the New England Patriots and the Cleveland Browns. All three teams need a running back.

Cleveland we can cross off the list immediately. They have the #4 overall pick and won’t be moving it. They also have too many holes on their team to spend these two high picks on one player unless he is someone of the calibre of a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.

The New England Patriots would be seen by many as the prime candidate for this scenario. Both of their picks in this draft are very low — they have picks 27 and 31 — and are a heavily offensive team that could use a player of Forte’s talent well. What makes this less likely is the fact that Head Coach Bill Belichick isn’t the type to make moves of this nature and furthermore the team has expressed confidence in Danny Woodhead, who they feel does well enough. The Patriots have a lot of work to do rebuilding their defense this offseason and Forte may be too extravagant to go after.

This leads me to the team I believe most likely to consider this move — the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati is a team that has two reasonably inexpensive first-round picks at 17 and 22. They also have a team that doesn’t have a lot of glaring needs that must be taken care of in the first-round. With Cedric Benson hitting free agency and the team seemingly on the verge of being a powerhouse in the AFC North, there is no better time to make a move on a superstar like Forte than right now. Given Andy Dalton’s style of play, Forte could be the last piece of the puzzle to make the Bengals a consistent playoff team for the next several years

2. Carl Nicks will become the highest paid guard in NFL history

In 2010, the New Orleans Saints announced they had re-signed guard Jahri Evans. The $56.7 million contract was for seven years and made Evans the highest paid interior lineman in NFL history.

Now the Saints have to deal with their other guard, Carl Nicks.

Nicks is arguably a better guard than Evans and so it is logical to suggest there will be big money on the table for him.

It should be noted at this point that Nicks has stated publicly that he is not seeking to be paid more than Evans but this does not mean he wouldn’t take such a contract. The fact remains that it would not be in the Saints best interest to sign Nicks to a massive long term contract as they did with Evans as it would tie too much money into that position and particularly when Drew Brees and Marques Colston are among the free agents the team must pay this offseason.

There are plenty of teams out there who have cap room to burn who may pay such a contract. Most notable of these are the Kansas City Chiefs who are in desperate need at guard. Other teams who could bid highly include the Washington Redskins, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

3. The Pittsburgh Steelers will cut defensive players James Farrior, Larry Foote and Casey Hampton.

The one thing most apparent about the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason is that they are in a lot of trouble. The team is currently scrambling to restructure contracts in order to get under the salary cap and despite saving approximately $8.6 million thanks to the restructuring of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s contract, they are still $12 million over without re-signing or franchise tagging star wide receiver Mike Wallace.

The solution is one that flies in the face of Steeler tradition — they have to let go of loyal and hard working players. With all the hype surrounding the team possibly letting go of Hines Ward is the fact that Hampton, Foote and Farrior combine to cost the Steelers $15.5 million of cap space. For three players at the end of their careers and aging fast there is no way the Steelers can justify keeping these three when they cost so much.

Farrior is already gone. With the Steelers still needing help and needing to re-sign Wallace, he may not be the first.

4. Peyton Manning will not be the highest paid free agent of 2012

The last prediction in my opinion is the least likely but certainly possible. With Manning being released by Indianapolis, there will be multiple teams looking at him. However, there will also be multiple teams looking at his medical records. The contract of Drew Brees will likely be more than what Manning gets in free agency and I also believe that because Manning’s price may be reduced by team’s being concerned with his health that Mario William’s contract will also be worth more.

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