In recent years, football has seen an exponential leap in viewership and fan base. As such, components of the game that may not have held interest to the average viewer – the more business oriented aspects – are now looked forward to almost as much as the games themselves. The NFL draft is no different. It occupies our time between the end of one season and the beginning of the next. Fans debate players, make their own big boards, and maintain very strong opinions all along the way. One of the most commonly debated topics, is that of the general approach to drafting: Does one draft based on need, or best player available?
Drafting based strictly on need is a dangerous approach. It is what causes teams to reach for players that should not be taken as early as they will be. Too often, teams look at rookies, especially first and second rounders, to insert into the starting lineup immediately and carry the team at that position. The fact is, that while a select few players do go on to find immediate success in the league (Cam Newton being the most recent and highest profile example), most players need at least one or two seasons to adapt to the speed and intensity of the game. Consider that Peyton Manning, arguably the greatest quarterback of all-time, posted a 71.2 QB raing his rookie season, throwing more INT’s (28) than touchdowns (26).
Drafting the best player available is a generally sounder approach, though it;s not without fault. If one were to strictly draft based on the best player available, then there is no doubt that a team will find themselves in a situation where the best player available at a given time happens to play a position that the team on the clock is well fortified at.
For example, if the Panthers (to use Newton again) are on the clock in the second round, and the best player available is a quarterback, the franchise would be foolish to waist such a high pick on that player when they already have their franchise quarterback. This situation is compounded when a high draft pick was recently used on the position, as was the case with Cam only a year ago.
As usual, the correct answer lies somewhere in the middle of two extremes. A team certainly does not want to be in a position where they find themselves reaching for a player to fill a need, but at the same time, they do not want to address a position with a high pick that they are already set at. The most sound approach is to weight the two against each other, determining the areas that you need to focus on and having any number of players on tap that may satisfy a weakness. That way a team finds themselves drafting a player in an appropriate position, while fortifying an area of need with a player with the skill set necessary to improve the squad.
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