10 Reasons Why Trading Was Prolific In The 2012 NFL Draft

Those who have been reading NFL Spin Zone for some time will know of my intense interest in the trading practices of NFL teams and in particular that I was interested in trades surrounding the NFL draft. In my last trade mock I proposed 15 trades that could happen in the first two rounds as a statement not only that there were trades that may happen but also that I believed trading would increase on previous years – for the record, there were 13 trades in the first two rounds.

All up there were 27 trades in the 2012 NFL Draft and you can view them all at NFL Spin Zone’s Draft Day Trade Tracker. Here now is 10 Reasons Why I believe trades were so prolific in this year’s draft.

1. Teams were talking trade with each other more pre-draft than they have traditionally

When preparing for my trade mocks, I was keeping a lookout for signs that particular teams may be trading partners and was surprised to find how many reports there were of various teams talking with each other about trades before the draft. It wasn’t so much that teams intended to trade but rather that they wanted the framework of a trade in place should they choose to make a move. This was crucial for draft day as this saved a lot of time and teams were able to do full evaluations of their options as the draft went along.

2. Washington moved early to get the #2 pick

This story may be about draft day trades but the trade that set the stage weeks before was the blockbuster between St Louis and Washington. The simple reasoning here is that the trade that ultimately led to RG3 becoming a Redskin created an unusual stability at the top of the draft that was unheard of in previous years. The effect of this on the rest of the draft was that it allowed teams to focus on what players were left and as such with the possibility gone that one of the two big quarterbacks would remain after the second pick the certainty of this made trading further down much easier as many teams had been able to strategise well in advance with greater accuracy.

3. The new rookie wage scale made trades more worthwhile

Probably the biggest problem with trading in the draft previously was that top draft picks were hideously expensive to contract. The numbers being paid to rookies were so grossly overstated that this became a priority during CBA negotiations last offseason. This year’s draft bore the fruit of the change in rookie salary as teams were better able to take chances on the rookie player given that much less of a team’s salary cap was tied into it’s draft pick.

4. Top level talent was more readily available than previous years

One of the more intriguing aspects of this year’s draft was that there were so many players considered to be elite or near-elite prospects. This meant that some players were more readily available to be picked off via trade – Chandler Jones taken at pick 21 by New England who traded up is a top example of this – and some just dropped into the laps of lucky teams – see David DeCastro, Melvin Ingram, Courtney Upshaw. As such, with so many top players in the draft this made the draft a little unstable and teams who had particular targets in mind and found them within reach chose to secure the player they wanted rather than risk losing him.

5. This draft was far deeper than usual

It wasn’t just in round 1 that there was a lot of talent. You had players like Courtney Upshaw and Coby Fleener who dropped into the top of the second round sure but I want to look at some of the names available later. Just a few picks to highlight – Janoris Jenkins at 39, Jonathan Martin at 42, Devon Still at 53, Vinny Curry at 59, Reuben Randle at 63. What do all five of those players have in common? They all went in the second round and went much lower than their projected value. Why? Because the draft was that deep. Just to further emphasise the point, here’s the first three picks of the third round – Dwayne Allen, Trumaine Johnson, Josh Robinson. When you’re getting that type of quatlity in the third round you know you’re doing well and this depth resulted in teams trading to go after value at times.

6. Some positions had poor draft depth

Despite the apart depth in elite players, some positions were rather below average. Two were predominant in this – safety and  quarterback. I hear you – with Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck there, how could you call quarterback shallow? Look at the quarterbacks after the big two – Tannehill, Osweiller, Foles, Cousins, Lindley, Harnish. That is not a very stellar list by any means. To continue my point – the lack of depth at certain positions not only resulted in a couple of trades but also allowed for certain players to drop that otherwise may not have. For example, we saw the Buccaneers trade down because they wanted Mark Barron but knew they could get value for the pick since Barron was their target. Here’s another – the fact that the Dolphins took Tannehill meant that players like Kuechly, Reiff, Ingram, Gilmore etc were not chosen at that spot which had a ripple effect down.

7. A wide variety of team needs throughout

At the top of the draft, one of the difficult aspects to consider was the way the team needs of various teams affected the value of certain players. The best example of this was the ability of the Minnesota Vikings to trade down and get value when it was obvious their target was Matt Kalil. An even better example was the way we saw certain players drop on draft day. You look at David DeCastro – arguably the best guard prospect since Alan Faneca yet he dropped all the way to the Steelers at 24 because there wasn’t a team who felt he filled their team need when there were other players at other positions who teams were less likely to find later in the draft due to the needs of other teams ie. pass rush.

8. Multiple teams had multiple first round picks

Going into the draft, three teams – the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots – had two first round picks. Having so many teams with this advantage leant to greater flexibility in draft strategy and facilitated more trades given that teams had a safety barrier of sorts. Had the Browns not owned pick 22 as well as pick 4, it could be argued that the risk assessment of trading up to get Trent Richardson may have swung in favour of standing pat and taking their chances. It also enabled the Patriots to trade up not once but twice and take advantage of some of the elite talent that was dropping due to the deep draft. You then saw a third way of thinking as the Bengals were able to trade down one of their picks to get value elsewhere but still have two first round selections. When there are more options available to teams this is going to result in teams making moves on draft day.

9. Trades were historically cheap on draft day

When you look at the draft day trades overall and compare them with previous years, the price of trading up was far lower than it was previously. Many people vilified the Cleveland Browns for giving up three picks to trade up to pick 3. What people failed to identify was that all three picks were in the fourth round or lower and the three players taken with those picks actually made Cleveland look pretty good. One of the more shocking statistics was that aside from the teams that traded back into the fist round there was only one second round pick traded on day one and that was the only extra pick included in the Dallas Cowboys moving up a whopping eight spots to get Morris Claiborne and even this trade was historically cheap. The rookie wage scale had a defiite impact on this aspect of the draft but regardless of the causes the fact that trading up was far cheaper than previous years facilitated more trades.

10. Draft strategy has changed drastically as the ability to trade has become much easier

When you look at the big picture, trading has become much easier. From the rookie wage scale to trades becoming cheaper, it is now easier to make trades than at any time in the NFL’s history. The thing that makes trades possible however is the various team’s opinions of trading during the draft and this is something that is definitely trading. The amount of chatter prior to the draft with various teams contacting each other to see what trades may be possible on draft day is a clear signal that teams are far more likely to trade and as such this shows that the thinking on trades has changed. In previous years, there was a lot more reluctance to trade. This opinion was one that was largely shared by fans as well and was one of the things I noted when I included so many trades in the three trade mocks I conducted during the offseason as fans continually said that the numbers of trades I was proposing in each mock was preposterous. Believe me, times are changing and with the introduction of measures that made trades far easier to achieve teams are moving with the times and identifying that draft day trading is now a very good idea.

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Draft day trading was far more prolific during the 2012 NFL and now you have some explanation as to how this happened as I’ve given you 10 Reasons Why.

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