Fantasy Football: Late Round Rookie Sleepers

When I was made the Fantasy Guru, I thought this job was gonna be pretty easy. Talk some fantasy football, get a nice job title to impress the ladies and generally have a good time.

That crashed to a halt when I was doing for research for this week’s column. See this week I’m looking at the offensive players that were drafted outside the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft. Turned out this was no small assignment – there were a total of 68 different players to look at!

Now a lot of what I write this week will be at most talking about guys you shouldn’t draft or even look at in a standard 10 or even 12 team league. However, the reality is that there are a large number of these players who will succeed and become fantasy superstars some day. Look at the likes of Jamaal Charles, Miles Austin, Rob Gronkowski and Ahmad Bradshaw – they were afterthoughts for fantasy owners when drafted but now they’re players that everyone knows. Just keep that in mind as we go through each position in the order players were drafted – note that I will not go through every single player but I will touch on plenty of deep sleepers don’t you worry.

Quarterback

Brock Osweiller, Denver Broncos – A name to keep an eye on given Peyton Manning’s injury history but not guaranteed to be anything worthwhile for 2-3 years at least. Don’t give him a second look in any format.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks – Will have an opportunity to start but you have to believe Flynn is the guy with the money they’re paying him. However, Wilson has a chance to play in a Brad Smith type role this year and could get the starting job should Flynn fail. Worth a look in dynasty and deep 2QB leagues.

Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles – With Michael Vick’s injury history, there is a chance Foles sees time although Mike Kafka will likely remain the #2. Foles is going to be groomed as a potential replacement of Vick and has terrific raw talent. Draftable as a sit-and-wait pick in deep dynasty leagues.

Ryan Lindley, Arizona Cardinals – Raw talent is what got Lindley here but he’s a project. Keep tabs on his progress in 2QB dynasty leagues as he’s got the tools to be a late round gem in the future.

Chandler Harnish, Indianapolis Colts – Harnish intrigues me as someone who could be used in that Brad Smith utility-type role. Keep an eye on reports of him in training camp as he could have value in deep leagues.

Running Back

Isaiah Pead, St Louis Rams – Uncertainty surrounds Steven Jackson’s situation in St Louis and Pead was drafted to eventually take the starter’s job. Worth a pickup late in standard leagues as either a handcuff to Jackson or as a speculative bench filler who could materialise into a fantasy starter. A must-add in all deeper and dynasty formats.

LaMichael James, San Francisco 49ers – James is easily the most exciting fantasy player not drafted in round 1 of the NFL Draft. Remember Darren Sproles last year? James fits this mold to a tee and will be a flex starter in standard leagues based on matchup and could be a RB2 given the uncertainty at RB this year. The only knock on James – the 49ers backfield is pretty crowded now. The upside however is just too big to ignore.

Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos – Another third down back but one who has a real opportunity for a lot of work. Knowshon Moreno is on thin ice in Denver and Willis McGahee was clearly the recipient of Tebowmania last season. Hillman is just the kind of running back who could thrive in a Peyton Manning offense and as such he’ll be a popular sleeper. Draft late in standard leagues but don’t forget him.

Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens – This is a guy who has implications both at the top and the bottom of fantasy drafts this season. Mark it down right now – Bernard Pierce is going to hurt Ray Rice’s production guaranteed. Pierce is a big guy but he has fantastic agility and easily has the potential to be a feature back himself. He can also catch pretty well and could figure into the short passing game along with Rice. He’s draftable in standard leagues as a handcuff to Rice but also as a player who could find himself in an eventual 50/50 timeshare.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins – Miller is a home run hitter who went later in the NFL draft due to injury concerns. All his presence really does is muddy the waters in an already volatile running back corps. Worth investing in for sheer talent alone but only in deep leagues. Even dynasty owners should be a little scared to draft this guy.

Robert Turbin, Seattle Seahawks – This is a straight handcuff player who will spell Marshawn Lynch on occasion. Worth a look as a handcuff but that’s about it for standard leagues. A point to note – Lynch could implode as he does and should this happen Turbin would be the guy to go get but this is an in-season pickup rather than a draftable player.

Chris Rainey, Pittsburgh Steelers – Rainey’s selection by Pittsburgh is obviously a call by new offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Rainey is your typical jack-of-all-trades type player who can play all over the field and should be viewed in much the same way as Dexter McCluster whom Haley left behind in Kansas City. Watch, don’t draft.

Vick Ballard, Indianapolis Colts – At a glance, Ballard looks like a short yardage back. Don’t draft him but keep tabs – if the Colts get hot offensively he could become a good source of cheap touchdowns.

Dan Herron, Cincinnati Bengals – Herron is one of those who you could see skyrocket to fantasy super-stardom out of nowhere and you’re like “who the heck is this guy!?!”. He’ll first need to make the team but with Brian Leonard and Bernard Scott both doing very little to challenge for the starting job, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Herron overtake them. This is a tough runner with good speed who will work hard and is a must-watch sleeper in dynasty and deep leagues.

Bryce Brown, Philadelphia Eagles – Brown is a short yardage runner who could become a touchdown maker if he can step up at the pro level. Has the potential to poach rushing production from both Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy in the red zone.

Wide Receiver

Brian Quick, St Louis Rams – Quick is a speedy receiver who lacks polish and needs time to develop in a similar fashion to Leonard Hankerson last year. You will be tempted to draft him late in standard leagues due to the Rams lack of receivers but I urge you not to. However, dynasty league owners should definitely invest if you can wait on him.

Stephen Hill, New York Jets – Hill is quick as they come but extremely raw. When trying to gauge his value, think of him as similar to Torrey Smith last year. Definitely a player to invest in on sheer upside but be aware that he will be inconsistent.

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears – This pick would more far more exciting except that the Bears receiving situation is as crowded as ever. Jeffery will have fierce competition from Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett and as such investment comes with the warning that his playing time will be restricted barring injuries. A good investment for dynasties but a questionable one elsewhere.

Ryan Broyles, Detroit Lions – Here we have a kid picked high due to his terrific speed and ability as a slot receiver but who is likely not playing this season due to an ACL injury late in his final college year. He’ll be an afterthought in many leagues but in dynasty formats he’s a player not to be forgotten given the type of offense he’ll be in once he plays.

Reuben Randle, New York Giants – Another raw talent who needs time to grow. Unfortunately for fantasy owners he’ll be no more than a #3 at best behind Cruz and Nicks so this is not the man you want to invest in on draft day. Watch him closely however – he’s a fine talent and could prove to be a hot waiver pickup later in the year.

DeVier Posey, Houston Texans – Jacoby Jones’ replacement who while gifted probably deserves the same (non)respect as his predecessor. Don’t be fooled by Andre Johnson’s production – Houston is a running team.

Mohammed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals – Sanu is a possession receiver but one ideal for the evolving Bengals offense. With A.J. Green drawing coverage, Sanu should get his share of looks. Just remember – he’s a player who won’t be a factor in the long passing game so his fantasy value may be limited when he doesn’t get massive yardage and touchdowns. Draft in 14+ team leagues.

Chris Givens, St Louis Rams – Despite Brian Quick being drafted ahead of him, Givens is my pick to be the rookie who makes an immediate impact in the Rams passing game. Givens is a more polished receiver who has the speed to take the top off opposing defenses and give Sam Bradford a legit deep threat. Worth a late round pick in most formats.

Joe Adams, Carolina Panthers – Adams is an explosive receiver who will likely begin as the #3 receiver in Carolina but could easily make a big impact early. A prospect to watch but not draft. Worth a pick in deeper formats.

Jarius Wright, Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings receiving corps is wide open and Wright is likely to play the slot. With Christian Ponder at quarterback, Wright will likely get plenty of looks and is a worthy late pick in deeper formats. Could emerge into a legitimate flex starter in standard leagues as the season goes along.

Nick Toon, New Orleans Saints – Toon should fill the spot vacated by Robert Meechem in the Saints passing game. It’s always difficult to assess fantasy value from New Orleans receivers but should Drew Brees play this season expect Toon to make an impact straight away. Worth a late pick in 12 team leagues.

Danny Coale, Dallas Cowboys – Coale will compete with Kevin Ogletree for the #3 spot in the Cowboys receiving corps which is a productive spot for fantasy owners as seen with Laurent Robinson last season. He shouldn’t be drafted but is a name to watch.

Juron Criner, Oakland Raiders – Criner comes into a very crowded situation in Oakland but has the ability to make a rapid rise. Not draftable in most formats but a prospect to keep an eye on.

Tommy Streeter, Baltimore Ravens – Streeter is a raw speed talent who really needed to stay in school. He’s not a player to invest in on draft day but given his talent should be considered in dynasty formats.

Jordan White, New York Jets – He may have been drafted late but White has the skills to make an impact in the somewhat open Jets receiving corps.  A name to remember.

Tight End

Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts – There’s going to be a lot of hype surrounding Fleener considering his huge talent and his chemistry with quarterback Andrew Luck. Expect him to be drafted around the 11th or 12th round in 10 team leagues but be prepared for disappointment. He’s going to be a star – just don’t expect it right away.

Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts – This sounds familiar – two tight ends drafted high by the same team. In this case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result. Allen is extremely talented and worthy of a pick in dynasty formats. In standard formats, Allen is a player to watch and pick up at the first sign of production.

Michael Egnew, Miami Dolphins – With the Dolphins receiving corps wide open, Egnew should be able to carve out some nice production. He’ll have competition to begin with from incumbent Anthony Fasano but Egnew has the talent to gain the top job fairly quickly. When you think athletic tight ends, Egnew is likely to be right up there. Worth a look in all formats.

Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers – With Antonio Gates constantly battling injury, Green will get his opportunity sooner rather than later. He’s big and powerful but also quick and should be an instant pickup when Gates gets hurt again.

Orson Charles, Cincinnati Bengals – Charles is a terrific athlete whose only real concern is health. Not someone to be drafted but should he stay healthy he could supplant former first round pick Jermaine Gresham who has failed to really get going. A deep sleeper.

James Hanna, Dallas Cowboys – Hanna’s a player you won’t hear much from in the preseason but do not forget about him. He’s got speed and improved his pass catching late in his college career. Jason Witten isn’t getting any younger and Hanna could be the man to finally take his spot. Watch but only draft if you’re in a deep dynasty.

Brad Smelley, Cleveland Browns – The Browns offense is well suited to tight ends and Smelley is a hard nosed competitor who will fight for every play. With Watson and Moore underwhelming last season Smelley could sneak into consideration. Watch only but be sure you are watching.

Kicker

Randy Bullock – The Texans offense is highly productive and Bullock was pretty consistent in college. Always be wary about rookie kickers but if you must invest in one this is your guy.

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So there you have it – plenty there for you to chew on as you prepare for your fantasy drafts this season. Next week I’ll take you through an early six round mock draft to give you some idea of the lie of the land followed by my first rankings of the year. Until then, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.

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