Fantasy Football: Early Six Round Mock Draft

It’s the middle of May and there is still a lot to be learned about how NFL teams will be structured and use their rookies and free agents. However, it’s never too early to get an idea of what the fantasy landscape looks like in a draft situation and now that I’ve released my early rankings we can use them to take a look around. I myself will be in my first real draft of the season in a mere three weeks – albeit that it’s a special 84 day draft in a very unique league I’m in which I’m sure I’ll mention on countless occasions over the next few weeks.

This mock will be a short one – ten teams and six rounds conducted snake style with each team picking a QB, two RBs, two WRs and a RB/WR/TE – yeah I could have gone seven rounds and had a separate spot for TE but it is often the case that players wait until late to draft a TE and I wanted this reflected in the mock.

Round 1

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI
Arian Foster, RB, HOU
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
Ray Rice, RB, BAL
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI
Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
Darren McFadden, RB, OAK

Here you have it – my official Top 10. In it we notice something rather unusual – three wide receivers in the first round. There are two reasons for this – wide receiver is extremely deep this year throughout and running back gets ugly in a hurry. Fantasy darling Chris Johnson doesn’t even make the first round. Two other notes – Ray Rice has some serious competition from Bernard Pierce which reduces his stock this year and I’m a big believer in DeMarco Murray this season and while you may not see him drafted here to begin with his stock is definitely going to rise as time goes on.

Round 2

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN
Tom Brady, QB, NE
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
Drew Brees, QB, NO
Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
Matt Forte, RB, CHI
Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
Michael Vick, QB, PHI
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG

Round 2 holds few surprises but once again reflects the earlier point about how shallow running back is. At this point, players begin scrambling to get the most reliable running backs as they are quickly disappearing. The appearance of rookie Trent Richardson this early is the surest indication of this. We also see an influx of quarterbacks in this round in part due to how strong the position is this year but also because running back is so shallow and this year taking a quarterback early may be a better idea than taking a running back who is a dodgy pick.

Round 3

Greg Jennings, WR, GB
Roddy White, WR, ATL
Michael Turner, ATL
Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
Steve Smith, WR, CAR
Cam Newton, QB, CAR
Wes Welker, WR, NE
Frank Gore, RB, SF
Brandon Marshall, WR, CHI

Round 3 is where things start getting messy. The quality of running backs has seriously deteriorated by this point and we see the round dominated by pass catchers. The first tight end makes his appearance in Rob Gronkowski who is well deserving a top spot after his monstrous effect in 2011. We also have the injured Adrian Peterson listed in this round – reports indicate he may be available for week 1 but with such a short recovery time from his torn ACL drafting him this high is going to be risky.

Round 4

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
A.J. Green, WR, CIN
Eli Manning, QB, NYG
Miles Austin, WR, DAL
Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI
Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
Fred Jackson, RB, BUF

See what I mean about wide receiver being deep? running backs book-end this round but then it’s almost all wideout. At this point, it’s personal preference as so many of these receivers project similarly. This is just my order. Note the presence of our big throwers from 2011 – Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning who both threw about 5000 yards. Doubt they can do it again but it earns both enough respect to get into the 4th.

Round 5

Tony Romo, QB, DAL
Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
Ryan Matthews, RB, SD
Julio Jones, WR, ATL
Jordy Nelson, WR, GB
Steven Jackson, RB, STL
Darren Sproles, RB, NO
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI
Benjarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN
Peyton Manning, QB, DEN

A few notes here – I have Matthews ranked lower than many as he’s done nothing to prove to me he deserves to be drafted higher, Jimmy Graham is the clear #2 TE and I wouldn’t draft one any higher than the 7th or 8th round, then there’s Peyton Manning who I can guarantee will not be a 5th round value. With Peyton, he’ll either be a 3rd round value or he’ll be a bust. This is the earliest you should draft him considering how risky a play he will be.

Round 6

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB
Marques Colston, WR, NO
C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF
Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR
Tim Hightower, RB, WAS
Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
Reggie Bush, RB, MIA
Eric Decker, WR, DEN

The thing to note about this round is that at this point in the draft you are going to find value. It’s typically in round 5-8 that the one or two players who will jump into top fantasy contention will appear. The problem is that it’s so difficult figuring out which one it’ll be. One thing I will note is that this is a little high to be drafting Matt Ryan but here we have a good example of how there’s a top tier of quarterbacks and then a drop off and it’ll occur right around the bottom of round 5.

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Team Summaries

Team 1

QB – Tony Romo, DAL

RB – LeSean McCoy, PHI; Fred Jackson, BUF

WR – Hakeem Nicks, NYG; Greg Jennings, GB; Eric Decker, DEN

Notes – pretty solid all round, picking first isn’t quite as bad as previous years.

Team 2

QB – Michael Vick, PHI

RB – Arian Foster, HOU; Reggie Bush, MIA

WR – Roddy White, ATL; Dez Bryant, DAL

TE – Jimmy Graham, NO

Notes – Another very solid team, having an elite RB1 is a big advantage

Team 3

QB – Aaron Rodgers, GB

RB – Marshawn Lynch, SEA; Michael Turner, ATL; Ryan Matthews, SD

WR – Dwayne Bowe, KC; Percy Harvin, MIN

Notes – Picking a quarterback in the first round has hurt this team a little but taking three RBs makes up for this

Team 4

QB – Matt Ryan, ATL

RB – Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC; Matt Forte, CHI

WR – Victor Cruz, NYG; Julio Jones, ATL

TE – Rob Gronkowski, NE

Notes – Gronkowski is essentially the team’s WR1 and the team is well balanced although they’ll need to draft another QB high

Team 5

QB – Matthew Stafford, DET

RB – Trent Richardson, CLE; Adrian Peterson, MIN; Tim Hightower, WAS

WR – Calvin Johnson, DET; Jordy Nelson, GB

Notes – if that RB combo pays off this is a deadly team, the ultimate example of how risk/reward you have to get when you don’t draft a RB early

Team 6

QB – Drew Brees, NO

RB – DeMarco Murray, DAL; Steven Jackson, STL; DeAngelo Williams, CAR

WR – Steve Smith, CAR; Jeremy Maclin, PHI

Notes – here we see just how ugly RB can be this year. Still, this is one combo that can easily get lucky and pick winners

Team 7

QB – Cam Newton, CAR

RB – Ray Rice, BAL; Darren Sproles, NO

WR – Mike Wallace, PIT; Miles Austin, DAL; Demaryius Thomas, DEN

Notes – This is probably the most balanced team of this mock which is to be expected when a team drafts three WRs in the first six rounds

Team 8

QB – Eli Manning, NYG

RB – Jamaal Charles, KC; C.J. Spiller, BUF

WR – Larry Fitzgerald, ARI; Wes Welker, NE; DeSean Jackson, PHI

Notes – A dead WR combo here thanks to drafting them early and often, this strategy requires smart selection of RBs and a later QB pick

Team 9

QB – Tom Brady, NE

RB – Frank Gore, SF; Benjarvus Green-Ellis, CIN

WR – Andre Johnson, HOU; A.J. Green, CIN; Marques Colston, NO

Notes – This is what happens when you draft a QB early with lots of WRs, the RBs can leave a lot to be desired

Team 10

QB – Peyton Manning, DEN

RB – Darren McFadden, OAK; Chris Johnson, TEN; Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG

WR – Brandon Marshall, CHI; Vincent Jackson, TB

Notes – The advantage of going RB/RB to start off is you end up with a very stable set of starters even if you’re missing out on elite players elsewhere

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What do you think of the mock draft and how the teams turned out? Which is your favourite team? As always you can tweet your opinions to @chrissmithsz or leave a comment below.

Next week I’ll begin a four part series looking at each offensive position and giving some early analysis for you guys. For now however this is the Fantasy Guru signing off – see you next Tuesday.

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