Fantasy Football: Running Backs

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

In part one of this four part series, last week I spoke about the quarterback position and also explained how to use tiering to construct fantasy football rankings. In part 2 this week I use my mid-may rankings to take a close look at the running back position.

Running back is always a tough position to rank for fantasy and it is becoming a lot harder as more teams adopt running back committees and we see the emergence of pass-catching backs as reliable options in fantasy. Due to the position being so complicated and the sheer numbers of players involved, I number the tiers I use rather than naming them and as I go along in explaining my rankings I’ll explain how each tier should be respected, used and prepared for.

We begin with Tier 1 which consists of just three players – LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster and Maurice Jones-Drew. These are the players you should feel most comfortable drafting in the first round and if they are on the board you must draft one of them. These three are the only ones you can rely on for consistent numbers. In reality LeSean McCoy is a cut above everyone in terms of reliability but Foster and MJD are both remarkable players who cannot be ignored at the top of drafts.

In Tier 2 we have DeMarco Murray, Ray Rice and Darren McFadden who are the other three running backs I believe should be automatically considered in the first round. Murray showed amazing ability in his rookie year and I expect the Cowboys to feed him the ball pretty constantly as the other backs in Dallas aren’t anywhere near his level. Ray Rice is possibly the most dynamic running back in the NFL today but finds himself in Tier 2 as I believe rookie Bernard Pierce is going to take a decent chunk of his carries away. Finally you have Darren McFadden who when he is healthy can be argued as one of the very best running backs in the NFL. His injury history is a massive concern but his talent is undeniable.

Now the tiers start getting larger. Tier 3 includes eleven players of considerable talent but also who have many question marks – Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Trent Richardson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Ryan Matthews, Steven Jackson. A lot of top talent here and any one of these players could be a top 5 running back in fantasy.

Matt Forte’s place in this tier is due primarily to the possibility he may hold out. Of the others, they come under three categories – Charles and Peterson come under the banner of serious injury concern either as they are recovering from injury or prone to it or both; Richardson, Lynch, Bradshaw and Matthews are the talented youngsters who have to prove they can play consistently; Turner, Gore, Fred Jackson and Steven Jackson are players with a lot of miles on the clock and you just don’t know how much more they have left. The players in this tier should go in the second to fifth rounds.

Tiers 4 and 5 are where we’ll see a lot of popular sleepers this year. First Tier 4 which is made up of Darren Sproles, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, C.J. Spiller, DeAngelo Williams, Tim Hightower, Reggie Bush and Willis McGahee. Many of these players performed exceptionally well in 2012 and there are doubts they can repeat while with some like Williams and Hightower there is good talent that needs to return to where it was previously. Speaking of that duo, they are my picks for who emerges from the competition on their respective teams. Look for this group in the late fifth to early seventh rounds.

Tier 5 is made up of players in a similar vein to Tier 4 but who are sleepers based almost solely on upside – Jonathan Stewart, Ben Tate, Doug Martin, Roy Helu, Beanie Wells, Michael Bush, Shonn Greene, LaMichael James, Jahvid Best, LaGarrette Blount. In this tier in particular we start to see some of the #2 backs who have a chance of either taking the top job on their team or may perform well even with a successful teammate. In particular, I’m a big fan of Ben Tate who I expect will continue to grow as the #2 in Houston as he and Arian Foster will be the combination NFL defenses fear most this season. The players in this tier can be got anywhere from the seventh round to the eleventh and will likely be your top bench options or possible flex plays.

In Tier 6 we get to some of the less popular names but those guys you shouldn’t forget about as there is some sneaky good value here – Isaac Redman, Daniel Thomas, Peyton Hillis, Joseph Addai, Mark Ingram, Felix Jones, Stevan Ridley. The inclusion of Ridley and Addai so late is more of a symbol of how unpredictable the New England backfield is more than anything. With these players there is both talent and opportunity but little real optimism. I expect most of these players to be available in the late rounds although one or two may climb the ranks if we get clarity on their situations.

Tier 7 – Jonathan Dwyer, Toby Gerhart, James Starks, Delone Carter, Bernard Pierce, Ryan Williams, David Wilson, Pierre Thomas – is the final tier of this discussion is made up mostly of backups who must be owned as handcuffs to major players with a few prospective starters sprinkled in. There are three players here in particular to keep an eye on – Toby Gerhart could be good early season value should Adrian Peterson miss the start of the season and even if AP plays expect Gerhart to see considerable carries; Delone Carter and James Starks are talented players who could catch fire as starters on their prospective teams but are most likely to fall flat; Bernard Pierce is a supremely talented beast of a running back who is a serious threat to the carries of incumbent Ray Rice although if he does step up I expect this to be a comfortable committee in a similar vein to Foster/Tate; finally Ryan Williams is a player I had my eye on last season until his injury and I expect he will have the #1 job in Arizona by week 10.

So there we have it – my top 50 running backs broken down to help you in your preparations for your fantasy football leagues. It’s a very murky position this year as you can see how quickly the tiers get ugly but you still need to have a plan. Next week in part 3 of this series I’ll be looking at the conversely strong position of wide receiver.

Until next week, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.

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