Fantasy Football: 12 Round Mock Draft

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

Yesterday I finally revealed my top 150 ranks. Now it’s time to put them to use. Last time I did a mock draft I showed you the picks round by round to give you an idea of the choices involved. This time I thought I’d show you each team as a whole and make some notes about strategy and composition. As a help, the teams will be listed in the order they were drafted so you have an idea of how teams can look from the various draft positions.

Team 1

• QB – Philip Rivers
• RB – LeSean McCoy
• RB – Michael Turner
• RB/WR – Ben Tate
• WR – Victor Cruz
• WR – Julio Jones
• TE – Rob Gronkowski
• D/ST – Falcons
• BE – Robert Meachem, Antonio Brown, Shane Vereen, Andy Dalton

With this team you see the effect no only of having to pick first but also of picking Rob Gronkowski. Traditionally TEs haven’t been keepers or early picks due to their weakness compared to other positions. The obvious consequence is that this team is missing some elite talent at other positions but due to the extreme depth at WR and QB this year this strategy is one that may actually work if you have an early third round pick. The lesson – if you plan to target Gronk you need to be in an early draft position and need to go RB/RB to start. Otherwise, forget it.

Team 2

• QB – Peyton Manning
• RB – Arian Foster
• RB – Marshawn Lynch
• RB/WR – Ryan Mathews
• WR – Greg Jennings
• WR – Kenny Britt
• TE – Jimmy Graham
• D/ST – Steelers
• BE – Sidney Rice, Anquan Boldin, Austin Collie, LaMichael James

Another team that shows us the effect of taking a TE early but this one is a round or so later. Let’s say you go RB/RB early and then Gronk is gone. The result is a choice of tier 2 players at either WR or QB – in this case Greg Jennings is the option. What legitimizes this decision is the availability of Jimmy Graham at the top of the 5th round which makes this team a massive threat with Jennings being on a par with Gronk and Graham providing solid production. The lesson from this team – if you see Graham available at the bottom of the fourth round he needs to be picked up as a defensive move or by not doing so you may end up making your opponents job a little too easy. It’ll be a reach but do you really want to deal with the results above?

Team 3

• QB – Aaron Rodgers
• RB – Trent Richardson
• RB – Adrian Peterson
• RB/WR – Jahvid Best
• WR – Hakeem Nicks
• WR – Eric Decker
• TE – Jermichael Finley
• D/ST – Packers
• BE – Lance Moore, Mario Manningham, Stevan Ridley, Darrius Heywood-Bey

Anyone remember a few years back when you had Drew Brees going #1 in a lot of leagues? I do – and I remember so many of those teams went bust because while they had the super elite quarterback he couldn’t carry the rest of the team. Fast-forward to now and it’s still the same old story. I rank Aaron Rodgers very highly because he is going to provide such elite production but the reality is that draft a QB in the first five picks is probably a bad idea as the rest of your team will suffer as a result. However, if you must draft a QB that early then the best advice I can give is to go RB/RB in rounds 2 & 3 or you’re going to wind up too weak at the position. Also, be prepared to trade Rodgers if the draft goes badly – no point holding onto him if you can better production via trade. The lesson – drafting a quarterback at the top of the draft is not for amateurs. You have been warned.

Team 4

• QB – Michael Vick
• RB – Frank Gore
• RB – Darren Sproles
• RB/WR – DeAngelo Williams
• WR – Calvin Johnson
• WR – Dwayne Bowe
• TE – Vernon Davis
• D/ST – Cowboys
• BE – Reggie Bush, Matt Schaub, Santonio Holmes, James Starks

In previous years, it has been a common thought that you should avoid drafting a WR in the first round as there have been too many cases of top WRs not pulling through. This year things have changed. With RB being extremely weak, taking a chance on a top WR makes more sense now. So what’s the difference between taking a WR early and a QB early? The fact that you can only start one QB and so the depth there means you’ll end up with less of a hole in your team. However, this strategy require taking at least one RB in rounds 2 and 3 otherwise your RB depth will be too thin. The lesson – WR may be deep but with to start many WRs drafting one early allows you to remain flexible throughout the rest of your draft.

Team 5

• QB – Eli Manning
• RB – Maurice Jones-Drew
• RB – Matt Forte
• RB/WR – Steven Jackson
• WR – Steve Smith
• WR – Percy Harvin
• TE – Jared Cook
• D/ST – Bengals
• BE – Doug Martin, LaGarrette Blount, Michael Bush, Torrey Smith

With this team we get some insight into one of my favorite strategies – drafting RB combos. When drafting a running back such as Matt Forte whose place as #1 is questionable, drafting their running mate isn’t a bad idea. Using this strategy and 2011 examples, here’s the four possible outcomes  – Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller, the #1 kept his job; Arian Foster/Ben Tate, the two were both productive; Felix Jones/DeMarco Murray, the back up takes over; DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart, both play poorly. The lesson – do your research and if you must pick a combo be sure not to pay too much for them. Missing on a high pick can have much greater consequences than missing on a low pick.

Team 6

• QB – Drew Brees
• RB – Ahmad Bradshaw
• RB – Fred Jackson
• RB/WR – Vincent Jackson
• WR – Larry Fitzgerald
• WR – Jeremy Maclin
• TE – Fred Davis
• D/ST – Texans
• BE – Roy Helu, Shonn Greene, Reggie Wayne, Isaac Redman

The later you get in the draft order, priorities change a little. The elite RBs are already gone and the need to draft one to begin with isn’t so high. To make up for this, you need to create as stable a roster as you can. One of the strategies is to draft a trio of strong WRs. The only problem here is that while WR is deep inevitably there are still going to be WRs that won’t pan out. With this in mind, if you try this strategy you must go for strength. A strong QB is also a good idea. As you can see, this team is strong because of the combination of 3 WRs and the top QB. The lesson – if the top RBs are gone and you choose the 3 WR strategy, create as stable a lineup as you can.

Team 7

• QB –Tony Romo
• RB – DeMarco Murray
• RB – Jamaal Charles
• RB/WR – Demaryius Thomas
• WR – Miles Austin
• WR – Brandon Marshall
• TE – Aaron Hernandez
• D/ST – Bears
• BE – Jonathan Stewart, Michael Floyd, Ben Roethlisberger, Daniel Thomas

So often in drafts you get that one owner who loves his favorite team so much that he will draft multiple players from that same team – in this case we have an overzealous Cowboys fan. This can work fine at time when you have a strong team with multiple strong options such as Philadelphia, Dallas, New Orleans or New England. the problem with this strategy is that you end up being tied to the results of the real NFL team just a little too much. If your favorite team has a bad day then it’s likely your fantasy team will too. However, if your NFL team has a good day there’s never a guarantee that your fantasy team will follow suit as of course sometimes a team will play well while a star player doesn’t if they have other good players to make up for this. The lesson – being loyal to your favorite franchise is great but with your fantasy team you’re better off spreading your risk.

Team 8

• QB – Matthew Stafford
• RB – Ray Rice
• RB – C.J. Spiller
• RB/WR – Jordy Nelson
• WR – Mike Wallace
• WR – A.J. Green
• TE – Jason Witten
• D/ST – Jets
• BE – Pierre Garcon, Peyton Hillis, Robert Griffin III, Randy Moss

It’s a mark of the NFL that there are always a lot of very young but extremely talented players who come through and make their mark and sometimes their upside can be too alluring to resist. When you look at this team with the exception of Witten and Moss the overall theme is youth. The problem with this strategy is that while there is a lot of upside in these young players they also tend to have low floors – meaning that the bottom end of the possible production is much lower than average. When drafting young, try and balance with one or two proven older players here and there. The lesson – youth and upside can win you championships but it can also leave you in last place if your young players don’t come through.

Team 9

• QB – Cam Newton
• RB – Chris Johnson
• RB – Tim Hightower
• RB/WR – DeSean Jackson
• WR – Andre Johnson
• WR – Dez Bryant
• TE – Brandon Pettigrew
• D/ST – Eagles
• BE – Willis McGahee, Matt Ryan, Mohammed Sanu, Leonard Hankerson

When drafting late in the order, often you’ll find yourself taking a shot at players that have dropped due to previous poor performances. Sometimes this can work out with spectacular results – ask anyone who took a chance on Darren McFadden last year. Of course, sometimes it doesn’t – Michael Turner is a good example as his apparent decline became more prevalent last season. Chris Johnson is the ultimate boom or bust candidate this season. At his best, there is no-one who can match him. Unfortunately, his worst was there for all to see last year as he went from bad to worse as the season wore on. The lesson – getting good value for players who have fallen out of favor is a double-edged sword so be careful you don’t get cut.

Team 10

• QB – Tom Brady
• RB – Darren McFadden
• RB – Benjarvus Green-Ellis
• RB/WR – Marques Colston
• WR – Roddy White
• WR – Wes Welker
• TE – Antonio Gates
• D/ST – 49ers
• BE – Steve Johnson, Malcom Floyd, Beanie Wells, Owen Daniels

Injury prone players are the bane of a fantasy player’s existence. Every year there’s always one team in your league where the owner can legitimately say “if only my players had stayed healthy, I would have won!”. When it comes to drafting players like this, the trick is to try and get as much depth as you possibly can and be wary of drafting too many injury prone players. They may be great production at a cheaper price but if they get injured in the end you have no-one to blame but yourself. A particular note here – Antonio Gates is one player who is very tough to draft as you MUST own a second TE. There are three certainties in life – death, taxes and Antonio Gates getting injured. The lesson – injury prone players will always be available at a discount but sometimes it’s better to play it safe. If you find yourself with too many players like this, get trading!

————————————-

So which team do you like? What’s your favorite drafting strategy? As always you can hit me up on twitter @chrissmithsz or of course you can leave a comment below. Until next week, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.

To stay up to date on the latest from NFL Spin Zone, become a fan on Facebook or follow us on Twitter.