Fantasy Football Mailbag: 7/17/12

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

Whenever I do a new set of rankings as I did earlier today with my new top 150, I always include a bonus article for all of you to check out and this time around I thought I’d take it to you fantasy fans and see what you want me to talk about. So this week I respond to a few of the emails I have received over the past week in this special fantasy mailbag.

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Q: Why should anyone spend one of their first two picks on an unproven Tight End who has a good chance to digress from last season? Why shouldn’t we all pass on them and cross our fingers on late round Tight Ends like Gronkowski and Graham in 2011? – Adrian Peter

A: Tight end always produces sleepers and as you suggest there are always those late round gems who come from nowhere and produce. To answer the first part of your question, we have no reason to doubt Gronkowski and Graham will perform at this point. If you want to pass on them so that you can strengthen your lineup elsewhere then all power to you. Just keep this in mind – any other pick can digress just as easily as a tight end can.

Now to the issue of sleepers – would you want to risk waiting on tight end until the 11th to 13th round because you might find a diamond in the rough? When you think about it, the reward would be huge but the risk of missing is also very high. For example, last year there were a bunch of other tight end sleepers – Jared Cook, Greg Olsen and Owen Daniels were all very popular choices late in drafts. All of them failed as starters. My advice when it comes to drafting tight ends late is this – by all means take your favorite sleeper late but make sure you draft another tight end in the middle rounds so that if the sleeper doesn’t work out you’re not left with a hole in your lineup.

Q: Can I trust MJD enough to draft him 5th overall or should I trade down to get someone like Chris Johnson? Speaking of MJD, what are your thoughts on Rashad Jennings and where should I draft him? – Michael from San Bernardino, California

A: I’ve been getting a lot of questions about trading down in the first round and for me this is just a reflection of how nervous fantasy owners are about missing in the first round. My answer is simple – you should be nervous because the fate of your first round pick is what often determines the fate of your fantasy team.

This year there is more risk than ever in the first round and most of all that risk is in the middle picks. Ideally in most fantasy drafts you either want to pick near the top or near the bottom – near the top you have the really safe picks while down the bottom at least you will be picking again soon afterwards which will help you to minimise your risk. With that said, I would look to trade down but only if you can get a high second round pick to go with the low first while giving away no better than a fourth round pick later on. If you can manage that then you should at least consider the deal. I will say this though – Maurice Jones-Drew is right on the cusp of the elite fantasy players this year and what I’ve read on him this offseason suggests we can expect more of the same from MJD this season.

As for Rashad Jennings, he is a very talented backup who the Jaguars need to come back strong from his injury and give Jones-Drew some much needed help. The most crucial job Jennings will have is to be effective enough that Jacksonville can be confident resting MJD from time to time which will help keep their star player healthy. Personally I like Rashad Jennings a lot and I think if he lives up to his potential could be the next big #2 running back similar to the likes of Houston’s Ben Tate and Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart.

Q: I’ve heard a lot about rookie players like Justin Blackmon and Robert Griffin III this year. Could you tell us about some rookies who can be drafted in the last round who might be fantasy starters? – Julian Floyd from Helena, Montana

A: This sort of deep sleeper question is the one I get asked most often but when it comes to rookies that certainly narrows things down as there are very few rookies I believe will emerge as serious fantasy performers. I’ve spoken in the past about guys like Mohammed Sanu, LaMichael James and Bernard Pierce who many expect to perform. Here’s three deep rookie sleepers for you – Dan Herron, Robert Turbin and Chris Rainey.

“Boom” Herron was drafted by Cincinnati in the sixth round and many fantasy players are ignoring him as the Bengals have three good options in Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard. Do not forget Dan Herron – he’s a talented runner and while Scott and Leonard may be well known they have had multiple chances the past few years and I expect Herron to impress enough in the preseason to get a foot in the door.

Robert Turbin played his collegiate football for Utah State and is a really speedy runner – he ran a 4.44 40 time at this year’s NFL combine. More importantly though he is immensely strong which is rare in a runner as quick as Turbin. For many Turbin isn’t on the radar as he was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks who have an established feature back in Marshawn Lynch. Now Lynch has been arrested on a DUI charge and could face a suspension which would give Turbin an opportunity to shine on a team who will place a large focus on the power running game. I was watching Turbin before Lynch’s arrest as he is extremely talented and this newest development gives me all the more reason to believe Turbin could break out in his rookie year.

Finally I want to mention Chris Rainey of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The University of Florida product finds himself in an ideal situation as the Steelers are transitioning from a power running game to a more aerial offense and they are in need of a utility man who can run and catch passes as well. We have seen pass-catching runners do very well in Todd Haley offenses and Rainey reminds me a lot of Dexter McCluster who thrived in this same offense in Kansas City last year. If Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy and can adjust to more of a short passing game I would not be surprised to see Chris Rainey shine.

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That’s it from the fantasy mailbag this time around. If you have a question that you would like included next time, email your question to SZSuperLeague@live.com and you  could find yourself being part of the action here at NFL Spin Zone.

Until next week, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.

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