Fantasy Football Special Edition: Staff Sleepers And Busts

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

When it comes right down to it, a lot of the talk among fantasy players at this time of year is all about player value, who you like and who you don’t like. Discussions become debates, debates become arguments and sometimes arguments become full on wars as everyone has their opinion on this sort of thing.

When thinking about doing a column on this, I realised that just telling you who I like and dislike would be useful but it’s just my opinion. So I asked around some of my colleagues – Chris Boyle, Mike Dyce, Mike Straw and Jason Peters – and together we’ve put together our own take on our favorite sleeper and bust at each position. Hopefully the mixture of opinions gives you some insight.

Sleepers

Boyle – Jay Cutler, CHI
Dyce – Alex Smith, SF
Peters – Carson Palmer, OAK
Smith – Andy Dalton, CIN
Straw – Kevin Kolb, ARI

Dyce – Alex Smith made comments about passing stats being an inaccurate reflection of success and passed for a moderate 3,144 yards and 17 touchdowns. However, the 49ers might not look to use Smith as just a game manager anymore having added passing targets Randy Moss and Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham.

Smith – Andy Dalton impressed last year with his poise and awareness – skills often lacking in rookies. With monster receiver A.J. Green back for a second year, Jordan Shipley returning from injury and Mohammed Sanu recently drafted, Dalton could be a very dependable fantasy quarterback with strong numbers.

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Boyle – Issac Redman, PIT
Dyce – Peyton Hillis, KC
Peters – David Wilson, NYG
Smith – Robert Turbin, SEA
Straw – Trent Richardson, CLE

Dyce – In 2010 Peyton Hillis was a breakout fantasy running back rushing for 1,177 yards and 11 touchdowns, earning Hillis the iconic Madden cover. 2011 was less exciting as he battled injuries – Madden curse – but Kansas City has a top o-line and his offensive coordinator from Cleveland. Jamaal Charles is returning from a torn ACL and could be restricted giving Hillis a shot.

Straw – Trent Richardson doesn’t enter an ideal situation in Cleveland, he’s joining the fourth-worst offense, yardage wise, from 2011. However, Richardson is a workhorse and enters as the clear cut #1 with plenty of opportunity on the unproven Brown’s offense. He may not come close to his 5.8 YPC from college but should easily average around 4.0.

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Boyle – Julio Jones, ATL
Dyce – Titus Young, DET
Peters – Eric Decker, DEN
Smith – Lance Moore, NO
Straw – Brandon Lloyd, NE

Boyle – The Falcons attacked by air in 2011, as Matt Ryan set a career-high in passing yards and threw 29 touchdowns. Julio Jones put up solid numbers for a rookie, catching 54 balls for 959 yards and eight scores. I think this year we see a new No. 1 target in Atlanta, and Mike Smith will unleash the speed demon to make big plays a weekly occurrence.

Peters – Eric Decker made a name for himself last year by catching 44 balls for 612 yards & 8 touchdowns – a steal for players who were able to nab him in free agency last year. Those numbers can only improve, as he now gets to play with one of the all-time masters of the game.

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Boyle – Coby Fleener, IND
Dyce – Martellus Bennett, NYG
Peters – Jason Witten, DAL
Smith – Tony Gonzalez, ATL
Straw – Scott Chandler, BUF

Boyle – Andrew Luck will need to be comfortable as he transitions to the NFL. If your tight end is your security blanket, and your tight end is also a college teammate and close friend, then it sounds like Coby Fleener is going to get a lot of work this season. Take as a backup and enjoy starter’s production.

Smith – It feels like Tony Gonzalez has been around forever. The speed may be gone but the instincts, soft hands and physicality are still there making Gonzo a great pick later in drafts. Don’t expect massive yardage numbers but his redzone presence should bring plenty of touchdowns making for more good weeks than bad.

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Busts

Boyle – Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Dyce – Peyton Manning, DEN
Peters – Michael Vick, PHI
Smith – Cam Newton, CAR
Straw – Peyton Manning, DEN

Boyle – Ben Roethlisberger has not been a fan of the addition of Todd Haley since day one. Haley likes a run-first approach, as opposed to Bruce Arians’ wide open offense. Add in the fact that he will probably suffer his bumps and bruises during the season. No thanks.

Straw – Peyton Manning will be drafted higher than he should due to history and reputation. He’ll be overvalued despite the severity of the neck injury he is recovering from. He has some nice receivers like Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker but can he make the throws all year – particularly when it gets cold? He may be the old Peyton but don’t draft him too high.

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Boyle – Fred Jackson, BUF
Dyce – Matt Forte, CHI
Peters – Adrian Peterson, MIN
Smith – Ryan Mathews, SD
Straw – Matt Forte, CHI

Dyce – Matt Forte has been a reliable fantasy running back in years past but not this year. New offensive coordinator in Mike Tice favors the long ball and you could see more long balls from Jay Cutler to new addition Brandon Marshall than the previous dump off to Forte offense of Mike Martz. Michael Bush, another offseason pickup, might get the ball more in red zone situations reducing Forte’s carries.

Peters – When the season starts, Adrian Peterson will be approximately nine months removed from an ACL tear that takes far longer to heal completely. Peterson will be severely restricted for at least the first half of the season, maybe longer and could be a risk for re-injury.

Smith – What exactly has Ryan Mathews done to deserve the high ranking he has received from so many people? He may have had a couple of good performances in 2011 but for the most part his value is all about hype – taking him top 25 is just crazy. I’d prefer to pass on him and be wrong than draft him too early and have him fail.

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Boyle – Randy Moss, SF
Dyce – Mario Manningham, SF
Peters – Andre Johnson, HOU
Smith – Andre Johnson, HOU
Straw – Wes Welker, NE

Smith – I am a huge believer in the talent of Andre Johnson but I’m just not convinced he can stay healthy all year. He is rated as a first round pick and probably should be but with the Texans running a lot more and AJ’s constant battles with injury, I will probably avoid him in drafts this season. Could be a nice buy low when he inevitably misses time though.

Straw – Many view Wes Welker as top 15 but that’s a prime case of a player taken too early. With Brandon Lloyd now in New England, Welker’s targets are sure to drop from the 172 in 2011. When Randy Moss was in town, Welker averaged over 100 catches per season but with Lloyd, Hernandez and Gronkowski to share with, that number will drop. There’s better value drafting another WR later.

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Boyle – Antonio Gates
Dyce – Rob Gronkowski
Peters – Rob Gronkowski
Smith – Jermichael Finley
Straw – Jason Witten

Boyle – When Antonio Gates is on the field, he is still an elite tight end. There’s no questioning that. He still caught seven touchdowns last season. But he has missed nine games the past two seasons, and the Chargers are notoriously slow starters in the first month of the season. I just don’t know if I have the time to wait on Gates, who will go in the first four or five rounds.

Peters – Rob Gronkowski has two things working against him: his ankle and the single-most impressive campaign by a TE in history. Defenses will be all over Gronk, and defensive coordinators will go out of their way to make sure he’s contained. He may battle the injury bug all season as well.

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What do you think of our picks? Be sure to comment below or you can always contact the staff on Twitter – Chris Boyle is @BOYLE31, Jason Peters is @TitanSizedJason, Mike Dyce is @mikedyce and as always you can send any questions about this or any other NFL or fantasy related topic to me @chrissmithsz.

Until next week, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.

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