Fantasy Football Mailbag: 8/1/2012

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

Yesterday I gave you my IDP rankings by request from a few emails I received and today to continue the email theme I’m going to open up the mailbag once again to give you guys a chance to get in on the fantasy goodness.

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Q: I’m in a deep 20 team dynasty league with a snake draft and I have the 4th pick. How does draft strategy change in a league like this and who would you suggest I target with my first round pick? – Jack Donaldson from Battle Creek, Michigan.

A: When it comes to deep leagues, the mind-set for a draft instantly changes. Value based drafting is no longer a massive priority but instead safer picks are what have the best value and sometimes this means reaching for a veteran who you know will give you solid production but without the upside. Deep leagues also place a huge emphasis on positions where you have only one starter and a limited pool – that primarily being quarterbacks and tight ends but to a certain extent D/STs and kickers if your league has them. You’re going to see a lot of quarterbacks in the first round and if I were you I’d wait no later than the third round to get one.

As to who you should pick fourth – I expect both Rodgers and Brady to be gone. If either one falls that’s an instant pick. Brees is also worth heavy consideration also. The main thing about picking so high in a deep league is my old saying – DON’T MISS. I suggest you go ahead and make a list of the safest picks available prior to the draft and go over in your head the pros and cons of each one. Also, with the league being a dynasty there is that emphasis on youth and being able to keep talented players for a very long time. This type of league is the exception to my rule about Trent Richardson not being a top pick – if you don’t feel comfortable with the players available then you may has well consider taking a punt on the upside of the stellar Tide runner.

Q: I own Cam Newton in a keeper league and loved his numbers as a rookie. Which of the sophomore quarterbacks do you expect to improve on their rookie fantasy numbers? – Denny Randall from Los Angeles, California.

Considering his amazing performance in 2011, there isn’t a lot of hype around Cam Newton this offseason. The reason for this is pretty simple – his numbers last season were SO good that people kinda doubt he can repeat them and further to that there are always those afraid of the dreaded “sophomore slump”. When we did the staff sleepers and busts column last week and it came to quarterbacks, I chose Cam Newton as I believe the hype has gone a little too far and that while he was the third highest scorer in standard leagues last year I expect the rushing touchdowns to regress but I also expect him to have a tougher time getting passing yards as I clearly remember how his top WR Steve Smith got completely shut down at times later in the 2011 season.

As to the rest of the sophomores – Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder – I won’t hold my breath for massive improvement but I have high hopes for all four to become productive starters in the NFL. For fantasy purposes, I do expect Andy Dalton to emerge as a low end fantasy starter by the end of this season which would be a nice improvement for him. Locker I expect to move into the backup tier and Gabbert and Ponder, while both rather gifted, to fail to improve much on last year’s numbers based on the horrible teams they are on.

Q: Last week’s column with the Staff Sleepers and Busts had you list Jermichael Finley as a bust. Why so down on Finley? He’s not even being drafted very high. – Michael Williams from Madison, Wisconsin.

Jermichael Finley is one of those guys who has fantastic physical attributes and abilities but seems to just disappear completely far too often – something that’s not really surprising in a Green Bay line-up that arguably has the best receiving corps in football with six top catchers for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to choose from. At the moment ADP figures from various sites have Finley around the 5th-7th tight end off the board in around the 6th-8th round. This is just too high for a guy who had double digit drops in 2011 and scored only 7 touchdowns. Yeah, he had that one 3 touchdown game which was phenomenal but the downside of this argument is that for 15 games he only scored a total of 4 TDs.

The tools are all there for Finley to be a true fantasy stud but he’s just not consistent enough for me to place that kind of faith in him yet. If he were drafted at the same level as say a Fred Davis or Tony Gonzalez, then I’d buy in but to take him as your sixth pick in standard leagues is just too rich for me for a kid who is so streaky.

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That’s it for the Fantasy Mailbag. I’ll probably do another one when my mid August positional rankings come out in a fortnight so if you’d like to have a question answered by the Fantasy Guru send an email into SZSuperLeague@live.com and maybe you could make yourself heard.

Until next week, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.