2012 Fantasy Football Preview

Need help with preparing for your fantasy football league? The Fantasy Guru is here once again to give you a few tips on how to play the crazy game of fantasy football.

With week 1 fast approaching, it’s time now to reflect on the 2012 offseason and look ahead to some of the big storylines of the coming season. Sit back and relax guys – this is gonna be an epic.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns: It’s all about the rookies. Trent Richardson has had his injury issues this offseason but looked very good in practice. Richardson is the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson and the fantasy community has been divided about how to rank him with some having him as an automatic first round pick with others refusing to have T-Rich in the top 40. One thing is for certain though – he will be a fantasy commodity for a while. Apart from Richardson, there’s not a lot for fantasy owners except maybe Greg Little in the late rounds. Players like Brandon weeden and Josh Gordon should be observed but not owned – yet.

Baltimore Ravens: Ray Rice is still king. We haven’t heard much from the Ravens this offseason and with good reason – there isn’t much fantasy value here. There’s even doubts around Rice this year as his offensive line is even weaker than previous years with the likely loss of left tackle Bryant McKinnie later today and guard Ben Grubbs gone in free agency. Also, I’m a firm believer in rookie running back Bernard Pierce who I feel could be stealing a large number of carries away from Rice by the end of the season.

Outside the running backs, there is nothing but uncertainty. I love the upside of wide receiver Torrey Smith but he is still very raw and needs to improve his route running substantially – especially with Flacco not playing particularly well. As for Anquan Boldin, he will flash big points some weeks but this is fool’s gold – Boldin is too inconsistent to trust. Keep an eye on Ed Dickson early in the season – Dennis Pitta will miss the first couple of games and if Dickson can play well he may grab the job.

Pittsburgh Steelers: All the talk on this team has surrounded Mike Wallace this off-season and it looks like those who took a chance on him will be paid off as he is back and training with the team again. Looks like Wallace will be a week 1 starter and should be in your fantasy lineup. Wallace isn’t the only WR I like here – Antonio Brown got paid this off-season largely because Wallace was being stubborn but lost in the saga surrounding Wallace is the fact that Pittsburgh paid Brown because he deserved it and is massively talented himself. Expect big things from Brown too.

Despite these two, I cannot bring myself to rank Ben Roethlisberger highly. His offensive line is worse than ever, he gets hurt every year and there are still the same question marks with him that there are every year so I wouldn’t draft Big Ben as a starting fantasy QB unless you have one of the better backups.

The running game on this team makes me very nervous. Isaac Redman looked awful when given his opportunity last season but it looks like he may get the nod at the beginning of the season. I like Jonathan Dwyer much more than Redman and he appears better suited to Todd Haley’s system. He had injury problems last season so whether or not this holds him back with the Steelers o-line worries compounding it is anybody’s guess. Speaking of injured RBs, we keep hearing hints that Rashard Mendenhall could be back week 1 or 2. I can’t speak to Mendy’s health but I will say this – I don’t believe he can stay healthy all year and I don’t believe that he’ll be fully healed if he does come back early which just elevates the chance of injury. Do not invest. Finally, there’s rookie gadget back Chris Rainey who appears to fill the same role for Haley as Dexter McCluster did in Kansas City. The difference – McCluster wasn’t used the way Haley wanted to last year due to Jamaal Charles’ injury. Take a look at him late but don’t expect the same numbers McCluster put up in 2011.

Cincinnati Bengals: I think the Bengals might have more fantasy sleepers out of all teams in the NFL this season than any other team and that is largely because most of their players aren’t ranked highly. All the sophomore hype seems to be surrounding Julio Jones and as such A.J. Green has fallen in many rankings. I personally believe Green in for real and in my last ranks I named him as the third best wide receiver in fantasy. I stand by that and I think he’s a bargain where I saw him going in many drafts this past weekend. Green isn’t the only wideout I like in Cincy – rookie Mohammed Sanu has impressed me this offseason and looks like a perfect accompaniment to Green. Remember the Cardinals combo of Fitzgerald/Boldin a few years back? Same thing in Cincy with Sanu filling the possession role – a source of good fantasy points judging by Boldin’s production in Arizona.

Outside of the wide receiver position there is some very good fantasy value. I’ve heard a lot of fantasy writers talk about Benjarvus Green-Ellis as a stay-away due to Marvin Lewis’ declaration that Cincinnati is a RBBC. Balderdash – have you guys seen Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard play? “The Law Firm” is the best runner on this team and it’s not close – he’s a bargain where he’s being drafted and could be a sneaky good fantasy RB2 and at least will be a strong flex play.

At QB, Andy Dalton isn’t going to turn many heads but he showed in his rookie season that he can play some solid football. Helps to have a guy like A.J. Green to throw to as well. Dalton is one of my favourite backup fantasy QBs this season and could become a borderline fantasy starter by season’s end. His #1 TE Jermaine Gresham is expected by many to have a breakout year after showing signs of life during last year’s season. Personally I’m staying away from Gresham if I can. If you want a really deep sleeper, Cincy’s rookie TE2 Orson Charles has all the tools to be an explosive receiver and for me is more impressive than Gresham. Keep an eye on him – you may find he overtakes Gresham at some point, particularly if Gresham gets hurt again.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars: The holdout of Maurice Jones-Drew is over but the intrigue surrounding the Jaguars RB situation goes on. Rashad Jennings has been given the primary duties for week 1 with MJD relegated to third down duties. For fantasy, I would not despair. I fully believe that Jones-Drew is still the Jacksonville RB to own and I would still draft him high – early to mid second round at worst. With that said, I believe Jennings will have more carries than he has had in previous years and is worth owning as a potential flex play.

The rest of the Jaguars is a mess for fantasy purposes. I still believe in QB Blaine Gabbert but for now he’s not ownable in standard leagues. I don’t believe in Laurent Robinson and I would advise letting someone else own him if he is drafted at all. Justin Blackmon on the other hand shouldn’t be ignored in any league and I’d draft him in the 10th or 11th round as a high upside bench player who could be a fantasy starter within a few weeks.

Houston Texans: I’m going to make one thing clear from the start – I believe the Texans are a running team now. The uninitiated may point to the injuries last year to Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson last season as a big reason Houston ran so much in 2011 but I would point out then even when Matt Schaub was healthy this team was still running the ball A LOT. With that said, I do not have Arian Foster as my top RB because I worry about his health, his offensive line and the ever present Ben Tate. I do believe Foster is a solid pick in the first round due to the lack of depth at RB but there are some massive risks involved. I also think Tate, while being drafted relatively high, is actually underrated and could wind up being a very good RB2 for fantasy purposes.

When it comes to the passing game, I’m staying away. Andre Johnson cannot stay healthy and for where you have to draft him I do not believe he is worth the draft pick when there are far more reliable WRs available at that point – hence my ranking him as my tenth wide receiver. Outside of AJ, I am not touching any other Texans WR in drafts. There are a number of options who could develop into fantasy starts – Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter, Lestar Jean, Keshawn Martin, DeVier Posey and even Trindon Holliday are all possibilities. Until we see the situation shake out, avoid them all. Even with this wealth of talent to throw to, I am also avoiding Matt Schaub unless it is as a backup and a lowish ranked backup at that. As I said, this is now a running team and there’s plenty of other options at QB.

Tennessee Titans: In 2011 CJ2K became jokingly referred to as CJ1K as he had a horrible season overall. He started to turn it around late in the season and I personally believe that this was just a blip on the radar. I have Chris Johnson ranked highly and fully believe he is worth a mid to late first round pick in fantasy – the exception being 2QB leagues. I’m projecting Johnson for 1400 yards and double digit TDs with maybe 400 yards receiving on top. If you believe in handcuffs, take Javon Ringer with your last pick just in case.

There’s plenty of intrigue elsewhere on this team. Jake Locker will be the starting quarterback but he has accuracy issues which I do not expect to be fixed right away. He has high value in dynasty leagues but for now leave him on your bench. In terms of his receiving options, the only one I want to own at this point is TE Jared Cook who is a physical freak and looks about ready to take a big step up this season. Kenny Britt’s suspension is only for one game and he will have some big weeks but he is almost the biggest injury risk in all of fantasy and unless I get him very late I don’t want him despite how much I like him. Forget Nate Washington – he’s terribly inconsistent and I want to see him do something before having him on my team. Kendall Wright has promise but I think he’s being overdrafted and overrated for 2012. I have high hopes for his future but for now I’m not buying it. Also, don’t sleep on Lavelle Hawkins or Damian Williams – both guys showed talent in 2011 and could be fantasy relevant again in 2012.

Indianapolis Colts: All fantasy storylines in Indy hinge on QB Andrew Luck and how quickly he can adapt to life in the NFL. There’s a lot of hype surrounding Luck and there should be considering he was the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft and he has been stunning this preseason. In dynasty leagues, he should be drafted high and hold a high value. In standard leagues however I would be hesitant to draft him too highly as all rookie QBs have troubles, even Cam Newton who levelled off after his outstanding start.

When it comes to receivers, I would actively avoid any Colts receiver for this season simply because they’re either inexperienced, injured or on the way out. Reggie Wayne appears to be the obvious pick of the bunch but only if he’s as a bench player. There’s no guarantee that any emergence of Luck will allow Wayne to overcome his bad play of 2011. Then there’s Austin Collie who looks like he should be great but who has been beset by concussions and should be left alone. Then there are the rookies – T.Y. Hilton is an interesting sleeper who is also a very handy return man; Coby Fleener is another interesting sleeper at TE although one who has been much hyped and whose owners should be wary that rookie TEs tend not to produce; finally, I wouldn’t sleep on Dwayne Allen who is a very physical TE and in time may prove to be the more productive of the two rookie TEs.

AFC East

New York Jets: There is very little on this team to be excited about for fantasy purposes – they’re just not that sort of team. Shonn Greene is the only player on the Jets with any fantasy value and that value is limited based on his previous failures. He is worth one more chance – but only at the right price. Aside from Greene, I would ignore all other players on this team for now aside from perhaps rookie speedster Stephen Hill who could have the odd interesting week similar to what Torrey Smith did last year. I’d also keep an eye on Jeremy Kerley – he could be a primary short passing option and a bye week fantasy starter in PPR leagues.

Miami Dolphins: Here we have another team that is largely irrelevant for fantasy. The only Dolphin I would own in fantasy leagues is Reggie Bush – and if I do I would want to have a decent RB on my bench given Bush’s dodgy injury history. I would not waste my time with either Daniel Thomas or Lamar Miller at this point. Ryan Tannehill is the worst starting QB in the league so there’s no reason to invest either in him or in the Dolphins meager receiving corps – when a Redskins cast-off in Anthony Armstrong is considered an upgrade that’s all you really need to know. Considering the sands of South Beach, it seems poignant to dub the Miami Dolphins as a Fantasy Desert.

Buffalo Bills: This is a team full of no-name players but there is some great upside here. Ryan Fitzpatrick is going undrafted in many leagues and he shouldn’t be – he showed off his ability at the beginning of last season until an unannounced injury held him back. I like him to be one of the better fantasy backups. He’s got some very interesting receiving options too. As always, Steve Johnson is a high upside WR available later than the more fantasied names and is worth paying a little extra for. Then there are the sleeper candidates – Scott Chandler impressed me when targetted in 2011 and I expect those targets to increase in 2012 making him a great waiver pickup. I also like rookie T.J. Graham a lot, particularly with the departure of the likes of Marcus Easley from the team.

Running back is where the more well known sleepers lie. Fred Jackson has been the lead back here for some time and despite his age I believe he is being undervalued somewhat given the big production he had prior to being injured in 2011. Right alongside him in both rankings and value is C.J. Spiller who I feel is ready to make the step up this season as he began to in Jackson’s absence last year. Both Spiller and Jackson are worthy of a solid investment.

New England Patriots: Every year we wonder about the Patriots production and every year we find the answer in the most unexpected places. Last year, we saw the emergence of TE Rob Gronkowski as a fantasy juggernaut virtually from out of nowhere. This year, I don’t believe the hype. I do think Gronk is worth a high pick based on last season but I would avoid paying too much for him – there is huge potential here for a let-down. There is also Aaron Hernandez to consider – I firmly believe he will have a larger part of the Patriots offense in 2012 and is worth investing in at his current value.

The biggest mystery it seems is at WR. Last year we saw Wes Welker explode into heavy production and this begs the question – with Brandon Lloyd in town, can this continue. I am one of the belief that while Welker’s numbers will go down, I do not expect such big things of Lloyd as others do. Outside of the TEs and Welker, there wasn’t a lot of receptions or targets to be had in 2011. There’ll be plenty to go around but temper your expectations of Lloyd – he’s a flex play at best.

Finally, there is the field marshal himself – QB Tom Brady is quite simply the very best football player in the NFL and should be respected as such until he gives us reason not to. If you own him, you should be hesitant to trade him. If you don’t own him, do your best to acquire him.

AFC West

Oakland Raiders: For fantasy, the only player on this team I want to own is Darren McFadden. It’s always a puzzle what to do with Run DMC – he always gets hurt yet he always flashes such amazing talent that he is well worth the risk. Feel free to invest but do so at your own risk.

The Raiders passing game is a situation that could be very profitable but like all Oakland players has considerable risk. I don’t trust QB Carson Palmer at all given how poor he has been in recent years and I would avoid him at all costs. WR Denarius Moore is brilliant but so far has proven injury prone. He’ll get you some good points when healthy – how often that will be is anyone’s guess. There is also Darrius Haywood-Bey who continues to show promise but who can also disappear some weeks. Do not rely on him if you can help it. in terms of sleepers, Rod Streater has emerged as a popular choice this offseason. Watch, do not buy. Finally, Jacoby Ford is an interesting sleeper when healthy and could bring points as a return man.

San Diego Chargers: Every year this team shows promise of offensive fantasy stars and every year it fails to meet expectations. It’s no different this year with people once again placing extraordinary trust in Ryan Mathews when there is no reason for it. He continues to get hurt, his numbers are sporadic at best and he plays on a Chargers team that has one of the worst offensive lines in football. I do not recommend going for him.

Last year we finally saw Philip Rivers for what he is – a talented QB but one not as good as heralded to be and certainly not among the elite. There are many question marks on this team and as such I recommend not investing in Rivers.

There’s little value in his receiving corps either. The hope of fantasy owners that was Vincent Brown is likely to miss much of the season due to injury. Robert Meachem has had his own issues with injuries and while I do like him as a fantasy sleeper I do not trust him to be as productive as some would think. If I own any receiver on the Chargers it will be Malcom Floyd – he’s cheap, reasonably productive and should get you a steady stream of points even if he doesn’t have the massive games of some players. Finally, Antonio Gates is a superb talent but he’s had so many injuries I am tired of paying for him. Unless he is available at a discount, leave him alone.

Kansas City Chiefs: There’s plenty of promise for fantasy owners on this offense and it all starts at running back. Jamaal Charles may be coming back from an ACL injury but he is young and had a long time to recover. Thus he is worth investing in for standard leagues and paying the high price for. His running mate Peyton Hillis also has had his injury issues but with Charles to take away carries I expect he will stay healthy and, like Thomas Jones before him, pay great dividends to wise investors.

At QB, Matt Cassel is far from elite but he is very capable. He had his issues last season with the tough schedule but this pre-season I have seen encouraging signs – Cassel is a wise choice as a fantasy backup. His receivers make for interesting fantasy investments as well. Dwayne Bowe has had some erratic stretches but is supremely talented and I believe he will return to the heights he achieved in 2010. I also have great faith in young Jon Baldwin who took the pre-season first team reps when Bowe held out and showed considerable poise and ability leading me to place him high on my personal sleeper list. Finally, I would pay attention to the TE situation on this team – Cassel likes to use his TEs underneath and if one emerges he could be a nice buy in a PPR league.

Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning. In his hands holds the fate of this team and in many ways the fates of many fantasy teams. If Peyton Manning can stay healthy, he will bring with him many fantasy sleepers. It all hinges however on his recovery being complete. I would certainly invest in him as when he is on his game Peyton is one of the very best QBs there is or has ever been. Just know that risk may be there.

Incumbent on Peyton is the many sleeper candidates in his receiving corps. Chief among these is Demaryius Thomas who made great leaps in 2011 and is a favourite of many fantasy players. I like him a lot as a big play fantasy stud but not quite as much as I like his teammate Eric Decker. In terms of reliable production, Decker appears to be the better pick as Thomas is still somewhat unpredictable with his production. There is also TE Jacob Tamme to consider – Peyton’s former young teammate in Indianapolis must have made a strong impression to warrant being signed so quickly after his QB although I would point out that former Houston TE Joel Dreessen was signed that same day and could prove to be as costly to Tamme’s numbers as he had been at time to Owen Daniels.

The running game is another story. Willis McGahee rules the roost here as Knowshon Moreno has finally fallen out of favor after several seasons of failures. McGahee is not a sexy pick by any means but he should provide a constant source of steady if unspectacular production. Alongside him is rookie Ronnie Hillman who figures to be the team’s third down back – a valuable commodity on Peyton Manning offenses. Hillman is definitely worth a look in all leagues.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: This is Aaron Rodgers team and with good reason. For those who invested highly in Rodgers, you should be very happy with your choice. My advice – don’t trade him for any price no matter how tempting it is. I fully expect Rodgers to top fantasy scoring once again.

One big reason to have faith in Aaron Rodgers is his receiving corps which is arguably the best in the NFL. For fantasy, Greg Jennings is the clear #1 although there are question marks. I like Jennings a lot but there is the possibility he loses the top spot this season so beware of that. The reason for this – Jordy Nelson has emerged as a top threst not only in open play but also as one of the top red zone targets in the league. Some people doubt Jordy can repeat his 2011 numbers – I don’t. If you can get him for a good price, I highly recommend trading for him. The one receiving option I don’t trust is TE Jermichael Finley – every year people overrate Finley and he never delivers on that value. He has the odd big game which makes his overall numbers look good but there’ll be weeks where he doesn’t get you much. Finally, don’t sleep on Randall Cobb, James Jones and veteran Donald Driver – all will be utilised in this dynamic offense and can provide fantasy value at various points in the season.

For such a high scoring offense, the running game has very little to offer fantasy owners. James Starks has been useless when given opportunity and I would stay away from him. Cedric Benson is now the lead back in GB but I don’t have any faith in him either. In Cincy, Benson didn’t look good and was tossed aside. He now has a fresh opportunity with the Packers but he is still the same player. Be warned – do not overpay for Benson or you will be burned.

Detroit Lions: There is so much potential for fantasy in this offense but as yet we haven’t seen it fully surface yet. Matthew Stafford was tremendous in 2011 surpassing the fabled 5000 yard mark. Despite this, Stafford disappeared at times as he continued to have injury issues, albeit small ones. He’s worth a high pick but be prepared that he may not be as explosive as last year.

Speaking of explosive, there is no argument that Calvin Johnson is the best fantasy wide receiver right now. He’s big, fast and strong – and he seems almost unstoppable. Barring injury, Megatron is a sound investment despite his price. Outside of Calvin, the Lions receiving corps provides a conundrum for fantasy owners as the ball gets spread between many hands. Titus Young has showed a lot of promise but failed to come through as yet. Veteran Nate Burleson appears to be trusted by Stafford and I like him as a late bye week investment. TE Brandon Pettigrew is a must-own in PPR leagues as he’s often targeted in short yardage situations. Finally, I would keep an eye on rookie Ryan Broyles as he comes back from injury – he’s a top WR prospect and I think he’ll be big sooner rather than later.

I am avoiding the Detroit running game this year. I did have a lot of faith in Jahvid Best but his concussions have now ruled him out for fantasy. Mikel Leshoure is unproven and coming back from injury so I wanna see him play before investing. Kevin Smith is highly talented but rather injury prone and his talent doesn’t preclude from the injury risk so he’s not worth investing in. I like Keiland Williams to take this team’s third down duties and he’s also likely to be the short yardage back – keep an eye on him as a possible waiver pickup.

Minnesota Vikings: To all those who have invested in Adrian Peterson thinking he’s gonna be the same AP of old, I’ll leave you to it. He may be the best offensive player on this team but his recovery from an ACL tear has been just too quick and I fully believe he will get seriously hurt again. There is some hope – youngster Toby Gerhart has looked very good in limited action and I have faith in him to produce well. I advise all fantasy owners to go get Gerhart – he will provide value this season.

There’s not a lot in the Vikings passing game for fantasy. I do like WR Percy Harvin to an extent but his issues with injury and migraines concern me heavily. There’s also the fact that there is very little around him as I have no faith in the likes of Jerome Simpson, Kyle Rudolph or Michael Jenkins. Then there is Christian Ponder – can he step up after a disappointing rookie campaign? I recommend fantasy owners leave the Vikings alone.

Chicago Bears: This may be a strong NFL team but for fantasy there are many risks here. Personally, I love Matt Forte this year. I have him as a top pick and he is a real value. He’s your modern all-around back who does everything and does it well. Michael Bush is also in Chicago this year but I believe this help Forte as it allows the Bears to rest Forte when needed and also draws away some of the defensive pressure. That said, Bush shouldn’t be ignored in fantasy leagues as I believe he will also have value and could wind up being an every week flex starter.

The Bears passing game is a strange enigma and has been a fantasy graveyard in recent years. This year I believe is the year we finally get some mileage out of Jay Cutler. He’s a strong fantasy backup QB who could elevate to starter status. His WRs have improved too as his old buddy Brandon Marshall has joined him via Miami, reuniting a devastating combination that was lethal back in Denver. Invest in Marshall with comfort. Aside from that, I do like Alshon Jeffery as a late flier – the rookie has shown flashes this pre-season and was well thought of as a receiver in college despite some personal issues.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: Many believe the Saints are headed for trouble with all the off-field drama this off-season. Personally I don’t think so. Regardless, there are solid investments here for fantasy owners and no investment is better than QB Drew Brees. If you can afford to trade for him and don’t own Rodgers or Brady, it is well worth trying to get him as he’s as consistent as they come.

The receiving corps in New Orleans is a gold mine for fantasy also. Jimmy Graham is my #1 TE this year and with good reason – he gets the lion share of red zone targets on this offense and is certain to be worth the price to pay for obtaining him. There is also Marques Colston who despite his various injury risks is still a dominant receiver who can post big fantasy points. Lance Moore is another pretty good option for fantasy owners and in particular those who go after other positions early – he can be a very cheap but productive WR2 on any fantasy team. Aside from that, I wouldn’t forget about veteran Devery Henderson late in drafts – he puts up decent numbers some weeks and makes for an interesting bye week option.

The running game for the Saints is unusual in the sense that the top man is essentially another receiver – that being the dynamic Darren Sproles. He gets a god bunch of receptions in the short passing game and is very good at making the most of them. He’ll also get plenty of carries with his outside runs. Aside from Sproles, Mark Ingram is an intriguing option who seems to be the team’s short yardage back – just remember that the Saints don’t run too much at the goal line. I also wouldn’t forget about Pierre Thomas – he gets injured a lot but if he can stay healthy he’s potentially a very good acquisition who won’t cost too much. Just be prepared for injury.

Atlanta Falcons: It’s all about the wide receivers on this team with Julio Jones nipping at the heels of top fantasy producer Roddy White. While it is difficult to decide which you may like, either one should give you good solid production. Veteran TE Tony Gonzalez is a super option who despite his years is worth investing in considering he doesn’t cost much. Despite these weapons, I would not like to invest in Matt Ryan at QB. He’s a borderline starter in fantasy but I’m not convinced he should be there. He’s solid on his best days but there will be weeks where he will put your team’s chances in jeopardy.

The running game is the real question mark for fantasy owners. The main question – is Michael Turner over the hill? All indications out of Atlanta is that they will continue to ride Turner but given his lack of pizzazz in 2011 there is good reason to have doubts. I’m tending to stay away. The pretender to his throne is young Jacquizz Rodgers who looks to be a top RB in the league one day. That day may come this year and I love Rodgers as a sleeper. For where he’s drafted, you should be trying to get him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: For fantasy purposes, this team has very little to offer. Rookie Doug Martin is very good but on a team who I expect to perform poorly I don’t have faith that Martin can produce results worthy of his supposed value. He’s a stay-away for me. His running mate LaGarrette Blount has disappointed after showing a lot of promise in 2010. You can forget him for now.

The passing game has little to offer fantasy. I personally think Josh Freeman is overrated both for fantasy and as an NFL starter. I recommend letting someone else draft him. Among the receivers the only player worth looking at for fantasy is Vincent Jackson and with Freeman being so poor and Jackson’s own tendency to either disappear or get injured I’d prefer not to draft him.

Carolina Panthers: The story here for fantasy owners is QB Cam Newton and whether or not he can repeat his exploits of 2011. Cam started out extremely strong but seemed to fade into normalcy as the season wore on. I believe that as he becomes more experienced we will see Cam become a very good steady fantasy producer.

His receiving corps is headed by veteran Steve Smith who stormed back into fantasy relevance last season with some monster games. He may not be a big dude but he puts out some big numbers and has good chemistry with Cam – invest with confidence. Of the rest of the receivers, I like TE Greg Olsen a lot as a sleeper who could become a reliable fantasy starter. WR Brandon LaFell continues to come along and I would also remember the name Joe Adams – the rookie figures to be in the mix. Lastly, Louis Murphy is a new arrival who could surprise if he gets the opportunity.

The running game that has given fantasy owners a headache the past few years continues to be an issue as both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have received big contracts over the past year or so. I do recommend drafting them but be aware that you just never know which one will dominate on any given day. Throw in Mike Tolbert who took a pay cut to join the Panthers and the whole situation is a mess for fantasy owners – good luck with that one.

NFC East

Washington Redskins: Speaking of dodgy RB situations, there is none more annoying for fantasy owners than that of the Redskins. The shenanigans have continued into 2012 with Tim Hightower going from top dog to the free agent wire – although word out of Washington is that Hightower’s knee flared up in pre-season which was the reason he was dumped. Don’t be surprised if he reappears at some point. My opinion – Evan Royster will be the lead back with Roy Helu checking in as the pass catching receiver while Alfred Morris will be used in short yardage. If I had to invest, I’d go for Helu.

Speaking of youngsters, rookie QB Robert Griffin III promises to be a genuine fantasy stud given his ability to run and throw accurately. What most people don’t realise is he is much more of a pocket passer than your average joe thinks and as such he is an interesting investment. I personally took him as my backup in a league where I own Michael Vick – there’s a combination to be scared of – and to me he is one of the best fantasy backup QBs available this year.

The Redskins receiving corps doesn’t have much for fantasy owners but there are some promising pieces to grab for your bench. Pierre Garcon is the exception – his terrific yards after catch stats are why Mike Shanahan went and spent big money on him so you can expect him to be a big part of this offense. Aside from him, Leonard Hankerson is coming along well and should be the team’s speed threat – worth a look. Josh Morgan hasn’t impressed so far but at the moment is pencilled in as a starter and thus worth a late flier for fantasy. There is also veteran Santana Moss who will work primarily out of the slot and should be drafted in PPR leagues. Finally, TE Fred Davis may be one toke away from indefinite suspension but for now he remains one of the more talented TEs in the league and is worth drafting as a low end starter.

New York Giants: There is plenty here for fantasy owners to consider and it starts with QB Eli Manning who came within 67 yards of 5000 in 2011 and led his team to a Super Bowl. For fantasy he was a solid producer as he is most years and this year I anticipate much of the same. I can’t believe how far Eli has been dropping in some leagues and he is a very cheap elite producer at QB.

The Giants receiving game is tough to read this year. The only sure thing for me is Victor Cruz who made his name last year with big plays and explosive speed. If I had to own a Giants receiver, he’d be the one. Hakeem Nicks is also a great option for fantasy and he is the receiver Eli trusts most but he gets injured so often that you will have difficulty relying on him so I’ve been staying away just a little. As for the rest, I’m not a believer in Reuben Randle for this year – he needs time to develop ala Leonard Hankerson when he first came to the NFL. Watch for Dominik Hixon – he’s slated as the WR3 and could be a sneaky fantasy play.

The running game is what gives me the biggest cause for concern on this team. While Brandon Jacobs wasn’t a great player anymore, he played a critical role in the offense and I think his departure will hurt those remaining. Ahmad Bradshaw has had a number of injury concerns and without that sledgehammer to relieve him I worry he will be overused. David Wilson is NOT that replacement – he’s a speed guy and essentially he’s the same as Bradshaw. I’m staying away from both guys – especially WIlson since he’s a rookie and can’t block ala Donald Brown. The sneaky pick for fantasy here could be Da’Rel Scott who may get time as a change of pace back now D.J. Ware is out of town.

Philadelphia Eagles: When it comes to fantasy, there is no team that provides more for fantasy owners at the top level than Philly. It all starts with QB Michael Vick who when healthy is the most dominant fantasy player there is. The problem is that he gets nicked up due to his physical style. If you are risk-averse, stay away. If you do own Vick, be sure to have a solid backup and enjoy the ride.

At running back, this is LeSean McCoy’s gig with no question – yet. McCoy is one of the very best fantasy players there is and there have been very few signs of wear and tear which means he is about as good a fantasy pick as there is. I would absolutely invest highly in McCoy.

Wide receiver also has a couple of bonafide fantasy superstars. DeSean Jackson is an amazing talent and when he is on his game there are very few who are better. Unfortunately he has had his bad games recently. Personally I look at this as an opportunity to buy low on a wide receiver who can single handedly turn a matchup with his dynamic play. Just be aware he’ll go missing sometimes. Alongside him, Jeremy Maclin is being seriously undervalued this year. Maclin is gonna be the one who gets lots of yards every week while getting a handful of TDs – another terrific buy-low candidate. Also, watch Riley Cooper when he gets back from injury – he was fantastic last year when Maclin got hurt and I think he could be a very nice sleeper. Last but not least, Brent Celek figures to get plenty of red zone targets and could be a nice value late in drafts.

Dallas Cowboys: Plenty for fantasy owners to mull over here but personally I think there’s a bunch of red herrings starting with the passing game and QB Tony Romo. He’s got talent but for fantasy Romo is only a borderline fantasy starter. There’s plenty of QBs out there who can do what Romo can do in fantasy terms. His receivers all have question marks – both Dez Bryant and Miles Austin have had major injury concerns and now Jason Witten has missed time with a ruptured spleen. I advise avoiding the lot of them until we see them put forward solid results.

The running game has promise as DeMarco Murray shocked the NFL by coming from nowhere to have some really great games before getting hurt. I do have worries about Murray’s health as he did have issues in college but I do believe he’s worth a high price based on upside alone.

NFC West

St Louis Rams: This team has never been a haven for fantasy value but there is a few gems here. Steven Jackson is still on this team despite my worries he’d be gone this off-season and I take this as a good sign with Jeff Fisher in town – trade for him if you can. Isaiah Pead will back him up and should factor into the fold but it isn’t his time yet. The only other players I would own from this team are QB Sam Bradford who I like as a high upside low value backup and #1 Danny Amendola who I expect a big year from, especially in PPR.

Seattle Seahawks: Here we have a team that could be full of fantasy gold but you really have to work to find it. Marshawn Lynch is the obvious candidate to be the man for fantasy owners but I wouldn’t count on him if I can help it – he keeps having these back problems and I wouldn’t bet against more off-field issues. Rookie Robert Turbin is worth going after if you have room as he is a big and able runner who could easily supplant Lynch if given the chance.

QB Russell Wilson is a trendy pick in fantasy right now but just be aware that he’s a small rookie QB on a so-so team with average receivers – personally I’m staying away for now but watching with anticipation. His receiving options don’t offer much to fantasy either – Sidney Rice is highly talented but gets injured too often to be worth investing in. Braylon Edwards has bounced from team to team flashing bits of talent but failing to break the fantasy glass ceiling. Doug Baldwin is the guy to watch for me – I believe that he’s ready to step up after a breakout 2011 campaign so if you can spare a roster spot go get him.

Arizona Cardinals: This place has been another fantasy desert in recent years. Larry Fitzgerald is still awesome and still worth buying for a high price but he is surrounded by mediocrity. Michael Floyd has a lot of promise but for now he’s more of a wait and see player. You have to avoid the QB situation for now until we see a true starter emerge. The running game is a disaster as Beanie Wells cannot stay healthy but Ryan Williams is worth a speculative look if he can recover from his patella tendon tear from 2011. If there’s a player from Arizona not named Larry Fitzgerald, you don’t want him.

San Francisco 49ers: We finish with a team that doesn’t produce a lot of fantasy superstars but rather gives you a bunch of fairly reliable bench fillers. Frank Gore is still here and still worth a highish pick but now he shouldn’t be any more than a RB2 on your team if you can help it. I would not recommend taking him as your first RB. There’s many other mouths to feed in the 49ers run game – Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon being the incumbents – but my money to storm to fantasy relevance is rookie LaMichael James who should wind up being the team’s third down back and also getting receptions when he splits out into the receiving corps.

Speaking of receivers, there’s plenty of them here to keep an eye on. Steady eddy here will be Mario Manningham who I expect to be an asset in PPR leagues. This team also has talented but uneconomical Michael Crabtree who has failed to spark as the dominant receiver that was promised out of college. Then there is Randy Moss who despite his advanced years is looking more and more like he still has something to offer and could be a sneaky good sleeper. I’d also keep a watch out for Kyle Williams who was a factor in fantasy leagues last year and could emerge again should his more fancied teammates fail. Finally, Don’t forget about Vernon Davis who has the size and ability to make big plays and could be set for a breakout campaign and is worth investment as a low end TE starter.

We finish here with Alex Smith who despite struggles earlier in his career now looks every bit like an NFL starter. Unfortunately for fantasy owners he doesn’t accumulate big stats being your typical Captain Checkdown but he’s worthy of a spot on your roster as a low cost backup who should give you ok numbers during a bye week.

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And there we go – 32 teams in around 7500 words. Had enough yet? Didn’t think so. Check back with NFL Spin Zone on Fraiday when I’ll be releasing my week 1 rankings as well as this week’s edition of the ever popular fantasy mailbag.

Until next week, this is the Fantasy Guru signing off.