Roll With Dyce: Betting Atlanta at Kansas City
By Mike Dyce
Atlanta Falcons -3 @ KC Chiefs Over/Under 43.5 Points 1 P.M ET
The Falcons are the favorites in this game and clearly the favorites for the public. They’re always in the playoff conversation despite not having much success in the playoffs almost like the Cowboys. They’ve lost in the first round in 3 of the last 4 years, and interesting fact is that each of those teams they lost to in the Wild Card round won the NFC and went to the Superbowl. In 2010 they lost to eventual champions Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Last season they lost to Eli Manning and the New York Giants. Maybe there is something to said about this team always losing to eventual champions, maybe they’re ready to turn the corner.
Last season the Atlanta Falcons went 10-6 and made the playoffs and the Kansas City Chiefs posted a 7-9 record. The Falcons ended their regular season scoring 133 points (34 ppg) in their final 4 games but their offense disappeared against the Giants in the wild card, only scoring a safety.
The Chiefs ended the year 3-2, almost ended up 4-1 if not for the overtime debacle vs the Raiders. That flash of life to finish the season is promising for the Chiefs’ faithful who’ve expected to do better with Matt Cassell and playing in what is considered a weaker division. Not many will remember that strong finish this early in the season particularly when most of the pregame talk on this game is about Tony Gonzalez’s return to Arrowhead. They say Tony will make the Chiefs pay for letting him go by putting up a big game statistically.
The computer sees through the emotion of a game like this, and sees a more positive outcome for the Chiefs. An interesting statistic that allow us to see into the minds of the linesmakers who set the edge in this game to the Falcons winning by at least a field goal.
*Week 1 +1 to +3 home dogs within a margin of turnovers that favor the home side = 12-4-0 (+6.6 ppg) since 1990.
Computer Projects a Final Score of:
ATLANTA 19.0 KANSAS CITY 25.3
From Pro Computer Gambler:
"Not only does The Computer not respect the Falcons to win by a field goal, but it says they will lose by almost a Touchdown. It’s saying that most of the public, who is wrong more often than they are right, will be looking at the Falcons, not realizing that the motivation behind this key stat is that the Chiefs will look to FIX their Turnover problem early in the season by focusing on their offense to NOT lose the ball.The line near even, (Atl -1) many moons ago, but the more hype this game brought, the more the people remember how “good” the Falcons are(were).The Total (Over/Under) of 43.5, has moved up, dramatically from as low as 40.5 but remember. Something clearly is telling the people that are betting lots of dough, that this game has the projections of a shootout."
The Play
1 Unit -110 KC +3 ($11.00 to return $21.00)
1 Unit – KC/Atl Over 43.5 ($11 to return $21.00)
Now, I look at things maybe the computer doesn’t. For instance, Jamal Charles is coming off a knee injury and might not be a factor. Which means Peyton Hillis needs to shine and after last season that doesn’t look like a sure thing. Another key loss for the Kansas City Chiefs is Brandon Carr on the defensive side of the ball. I think Atlanta wins, and by more than 3.
That’s not to discredit the computer. Parity almost favors the underdog since scores in the NFL more often than not are close. And especially in a home dog (where the underdog is the home team) situation. I’m also not a fan of the over in this game.
Wednesday, despite correctly predicting the score and the under, I chose the Giants to win.
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Vocabulary
“ATS” – “Against the Spread” – To win, the team that “covers” the spread is the team that beats the imaginary “head start” given to the stronger team.
Eg. The Cowboys are a 7 point favorite against the Redskins – If you bet the Cowboys, they must win by MORE than 7 points, if you bet the Redskins, they must Win outright, OR Lose by LESS than 7 points. If the Cowboys win by 7, all bets are returned, and is known as a “Push”
“Fading” = Betting against
“ROI” – Return on Investment – Given in Percentage
“SU” – Straight Up Winner
“Total” – In an “Over/Under” or “Total” Bet – you pick whether or not the combined score of BOTH teams are higher (Over) or lower (Under) than the line given.
“Unit” – Whatever given value one bets on average on a game. Used to show profit and loss a the end of a season. (See ROI)
“The Computer” – A powerful tool used to predict outcomes to sporting events. .
“Public” – The “general” consensus of the common folk who essentially dictate the price of the two teams once the odds are set. Note***The Pubic rarely wins.