NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 1

Oct 7, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) calls a play during the second half in a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. The Dolphins won 17-13. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND

Ah yes… nothing says “degenerate gambler” quite like betting on a Browns-Dolphins game. Even worse if you’re actually betting ON Cleveland to win. But that’s exactly what I’m recommending this week. The Browns should be a vastly improved team, and while they likely won’t quite make a run to a Wildcard Playoff berth, I think they will spend a few weeks as the “Hey, look at them!” surprise team this season. And it starts with a home win in the debut for head coach Rob Chudzinski and his expert staff of offensive coordinator Norv Turner and defensive coordinator Ray Horton. Most people expect both of these teams to be better this year, but I think Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will have a bumpy start with Horton sending ex-Raven LB Paul Kruger on blitzes while Cleveland CB Joe Haden locks down WR Mike Wallace (the Dolphins only real weapon). Most places have the Browns listed as 1-point favorites, so they really just need to win the game. In Cleveland you’re getting a team who should see a noticeable coaching improvement, with QB Brandon Weeden looking pretty sharp this preseason (or at least like a viable starting NFL QB), a potentially dominant young RB in Trent Richardson, and an “athletic freak” type TE in Jordan Cameron… and they’re at home, giving less than a field goal (actually one measly point) to a mediocre Dolphins team. So jump on the Cleveland bandwagon before the Vegas oddsmakers realize the Browns are pretty good (or before it breaks down when they start playing better teams). BEST BET: Browns -1.