10 & Out: Luck strikes, Referees, & Casualties hit the NFL in Week 7

Colts QB Andrew Luck waves after the game against the Broncos at Lucas Oil Stadium. Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

An abbreviated 10 & Out this week because I’ve been kinda needy and verbose lately and, well, I just didn’t really watch all that much football last weekend. Plus Colleen made an apple pie and that kinda took up my spare time.

What I learned this week…..

It doesn’t even need to be “roughness” anymore for unnecessary roughness to be called.

In today’s NFL depth is everything in this league, which is why trading away multiple picks to move up is so dangerous. More on this later.

There’s nothing to say about the Patriots-Jets ending that hasn’t already been said. I’ll leave it at this: its tough for me to reconcile having the referees be the determining factor in any game, especially a divisional game. No one wants to see that, least of all the NFL. I’d bet selective enforcement becomes an issue here soon.

For what its worth…if the games were played under the rules and refereeing of last year, the New York Jets would be a two win team and Rex would be on the hot seat.

Dear Jeff Garcia,

No.

All the best,

Everyone

What do these guys have in common? Roddy White, Julio Jones, a KC TE, Brian Hoyer, Josh Freeman, Christian Ponder, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Gronk, Reggie Wayne, Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, Brian Cushing, Lance Briggs, Randall Cobb, Danieal Manning, Michael Vick, pretty much every Steelers LB, Maurkice Pouncey, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Ryan Clady, Dan Koppen, Bryan Bulaga, Jeremy Maclin, Kevin Kolb, E.J. Manuel…

The Good, the Bad and the Ugh

Good: Buffalo Bills The Bills almost beat Cincinnati two weeks ago and then did beat their division rival Miami Dolphins this week. Marrone was just letting Thad Lewis learn the new playbook before unleashing him Willie Beamon-style on the league.

Bad: Refs gave another win to the Jets on a last-second call. Two wins outta four like that for Rex.

Ugh: The Minnesota Vikings are going to fire their coach again, aren’t they? They lost to the winless Giants and didn’t even look competitive. Now new QB Josh Freeman is concussed and they’ll have to go back to afterthought Christian Ponder, himself not very content either. I’ve spent enough time on Freeman but his addition adds to what is brewing into a circus in the Twin Cities.

Mystery team…I am #3 in overall Defense, #1 against the pass and #2 against the run (YPG). #2 in Points per game only 2 points behind the league leader. I average 3+ sackes per game and less than 1 TD per game. Who am I?

Andrew Luck was great Sunday night. He didn’t outplay Peyton, but he didn’t have to. He had to play his best, and he did. No turnovers, spread the ball around, incorporated the receivers after Wayne went down, and did nothing to hurt his team’s chances of winning. The Colts never looked out of their depth. Rare for a young QB in a huge game. Seemed, rather, that the pomp & circumstance (and a jarring hit in the end zone by Robert Mathis, leading to a safety) had Peyton unnerved. After the hit Peyton’s game just wasn’t the same. Have to figure Robert Mathis has been wanting to take a shot at Peyton for a while now. No red practice jersey this time. Indianapolis Colts win. 

W2W4: I’d bet the San Francisco 49ers are going to beat Jacksonville by more than the Broncos did. They get the Jaguars in a foreign (ha) environment playing a supposed “home” game after the Jags barely showed up to play San Diego. this is the worst spot for the Jaguars. Think they took their moral victory in Denver a little too far. Well now they have to travel again, the other direction. I say that b/c this game is actually in London, where believe it or not the Jaguars have supporters. But 17 is a HUGE number. After all, heavy favorites never cover. Jacksonville still fields NFL talent. Yadda yadda. The Jaguars QB carousel only has two horsies on it. That’s the problem. This week they go back to Henne, who replaced Gabbert, b/c Gabbert, who replaced Henne (who had replaced Gabbert already) is hurt. A well-placed source at a highly-visible Sports Network tells me: “they both suck.” No. You lose. Jacksonville gets run out of its the building.

Locks of the Century of the Week…Week 7 and I was on the plus side. 5-4 on the year. Dallas didn’t need the points during an ugly win in Philly and the Falcons ran over the spiraling Buccaneers. The Redskins-Bears game? EACH of them almost went over. Shaddup. Maybe I should put some thought into these.

First thing, look for home dogs. And who just came off a bye. Then I’m looking at trends. For instance, if you’re a trend follower you’d have known that as a home dog Andrew Luck was 6-0 going into Sunday night’s game against the Broncos. You’d also have seen that he was 5-0 after a Colts loss. Put two & two together and you’d have some chicken.

Some big numbers this week, which I don’t love, but here ya go:

NYG @ PHL -5.5 Philadelphia Eagles have looked professional with Foles. Maybe not better, but more professional. Running the plays as called. Check the injury reports before this play (or any play) but off of a short week and in a hostile environment, I don’t know that the Giants can run with Chip & the Birds, who seem to have a Good Game-Bad Game-Good Game thing going on. Eagles -5.5

BUF @ NO -12 Another monster number. Hate this pick. “Never bet against the Bills,” Tiff says. “or on them for that matter.” But c’mon. Saints were on a bye, Bills just had two emotional games with their practice-squad QB. I don’t know how they’re doing it. They don’t even know how they’re doing it. But the Saints are licking their wounds after a last-second loss to the Pats. They can’t lose again, and the Superdome is as good a home-field advantage as Seattle has. Saints -12

PIT -2.5 @ OAK Wow, all favorites. usually spells disaster. Anyway, I’m going to lay points here and hope Pittsburgh can channel Rocky Bleier and Franco Harris in Oakland. I know a 55-yd Sebass bomb could sink me, but I think the Steelers have that run in them I’ve been talking about. Steelers -2.5

Oh and parlay your picks this week with San Francisco to win against Jacksonville in London. Same as last week: it barely pays on its own but you might as well take the extra juice where you can.

Told ya so…Colts beat the Broncos, and beat em at Peyton’s game. Andrew Luck is the real deal and he’s at the top to stay…Steelers pulled out that division win I was talking about and are eyeing a turnaround…Brady missed more open targets…Case Keenum……

Mystery team revealed…The 3-3 Carolina Panthers.