Carolina Panthers Friday Fades: Cam Newton, Jordan Gross
4. Panthers DTs are key
Star Lotulelei has been the high-impact defensive tackle that the Carolina Panthers have always needed, and it’s been a blessing for the Panthers to have drafted two defensive tackles as talented as Lotulelei and Kawann Short in this year’s draft. They spent their two highest picks on DTs, and it has paid off for sure. Ever since the 2008 season (when the Panthers last made it to the postseason), the Panthers defensive tackles have been the worst in the NFL, and that really hurt their talented linebackers in run defense. With a four-deep group of DTs that includes someone as talented as Lotulelei, the Panthers front seven has flourished. Plenty of credit goes to defensive coordinator Sean McDermott, but you have to give at least as much credit to the improved play of the men in the middle.
The Panthers have one of the best pass rushing duos in the league in Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson, and those two have a much easier time now that the Panthers have DTs who can open things up. It’s time to keep a close eye on these defensive tackles on Monday, because they could have a big impact on the end result of this one. The Patriots offensive line has looked weak up the middle, and that’s because center Ryan Wendell has regressed in his second season as a starter (I’m still trying to figure out why). He and Dan Connolly have been major weaknesses in pass protection, with Connolly’s struggles being especially notable. Though he was a weak link last season, he wasn’t exactly bad- he’s definitely been bad this year. The Patriots know that they need to be more consistent in pass pro, and it’s clear to me that we can pinpoint the play of two starters who have hindered that goal. Interior pressure impacts quarterbacks at a huge rate, and the Patriots could also run into problems with Hardy/Johnson if they have to spend too much time covering for the interior’s inability to block the defensive tackles.
5. Brandon LaFell, not Steve Smith worth throwing it to the most?
There’s no doubt that Steve Smith is still clearly the Carolina Panthers best wide receiver, but both LaFell and Ginn Jr. are starting to come around this season. Aqib Talib should be just about fully health now, and it’s an incredibly difficult matchup for Smith. Talib is one of the league’s most talented cover corners, and the reason why Smith has such a difficult matchup goes beyond just Talib. Belichick always wants to take the opponent’s No. 1 receiver out of the game, and he knows how dangerous Smith can be. Due to his physicality, sheer talent, and experience, Smith is one of those players who doesn’t get shut down one-on-one; he can still beat elite corners. What the Patriots will likely do is force Newton to shy away from Smith.
Really, though, it’s all about where the Patriots put McCourty. If they bracket him on Smith, who has been used in more of a possession role this season, avoid Smith at all costs. That would open things up big-time for deep threat Ted Ginn Jr. and No. 2 man Brandon LaFell, who is also capable of making big plays. If the Patriots are smart, they will try to confuse Newton by lining up McCourty in various locations and will also allow him to make plays on his own.
I wonder if LaFell is a better option than Smith because of how the Patriots perform against No. 1 and 2 receivers this season; the disparity is huge. According to Football Outsiders’s DVOA, the Patriots are the best team in the NFL against No. 1 wideouts, but they are also the worst team in the league at covering No. 2 receivers. I don’t think that’s a knock on Dennard, but rather points out just how much the Patriots try to stop No. 1 receivers. If the Patriots focus too much of their coverage on Smith, then that could be a fatal flaw. The Panthers are spreading the ball around more often, and hopefully Newton doesn’t buck that trend. He needs to use all of the field, because, as I said before, this game will most likely come down to Newton’s ability to make the correct reads/decisions.
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