Eric Decker not as overrated as you think

ESPN analyst and former Denver Broncos and Washington Redskins guard Mark Schlereth was an excellent football player, and he’s currently an excellent analyst, especially when comparing him to other mainstream pundits. Schlereth recently gave a scathing review of new New York Jets No. 1 receiver Eric Decker, and both head coach Rex Ryan and fellow wideout David Nelson unsurprisingly took issue with what Schlereth said about the former Bronco.

Schlereth said on 98.7 ESPN Radio, via the New York Post’s Brian Costello , “The worst cover guy you have on your defense is assigned to Eric Decker every week. New York will go crazy watching him be covered 1-on-1 and incomplete passes, throwing his arms up, begging for flags. I’m telling you New York, get ready, begging for flags like, ‘I was interfered with. That’s the only reason I didn’t catch that ball’ every play and then tripping over his own feet. Going for a big play and all of a sudden the turf monster gets him, bam, sniper, down. It will drive you crazy. It will absolutely drive you crazy.”

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I’m sure several people will agree with Schlereth, but the fact of the matter is that his disparaging remarks are exaggerated, especially since he called Decker a “marginal No. 2 at best”.

Maybe it’s his status as a “pretty boy”, but I don’t understand why he’s going after Decker for complaining about penalties. First of all, if he does complain to the referees too much, how is this reflective of a lack of talent? It really shouldn’t be a factor here, and it adds absolutely no credence to the larger argument. The manner in which Schlereth criticizes Decker is quizzical, because he doesn’t harp on the common things such as a lack of separation or poor hands; he goes after him for complaining and tripping, though his initial comments do go after Decker’s speed in a round-about way.

There’s no doubt that Decker benefited significantly from Peyton Manning throwing him the ball, and he may have benefited even more from the pressure that the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker took off of him, allowing to make more plays downfield. But if you look at the numbers, Decker was still responsible for plenty of his success. The drops hurt, but he still managed to average 9.1 yards per target. Demaryius notched 9.6, but 9.1 is still pretty impressive. Manning averaged an outstanding 8.3 YPA and Decker’s totals are inflated a bit because of his status as the team’s top vertical threat (led the team with 14.7 yards per reception and most deep routes run), but there’s no denying that he was efficient.

Let’s take a quick look at Decker’s numbers from 2012 (all stats include the playoffs and are courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats. Decker led the team with a 68.9% catch rate, which was 0.5% higher than Manning’s completion percentage. His average of 12.6 yards per reception was lower, and Demaryius had higher YPR and YPT totals by a significant margin. But the importance of highlighting Decker’s 2012 numbers lies in that catch rate, because the numbers show us that he can move the chains as needed.

So how about those drops? Well, Decker received some major criticism at the beginning of the 2013 season for letting too many passes go between his hands, but the interesting thing is that he wasn’t as drop prone as some think. According to the Pro Football Focus, Decker was 25th among 43 qualifiers in drop rate. Among those below him were Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Julian Edelman, Roddy White, Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, and Vincent Jackson; those are some huge names. I understand that No. 1 targets often face more difficult throws, especially if Green is on the receiving end of a desperation play. But then why did Welker and Thomas have higher drop rates than Decker last year?

But then why did Welker and Thomas have higher drop rates than Decker last year?

Here’s another stat from PFF for you. Did you know that Decker led the league in catch rate on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield? Yup, he caught a whopping 60% of those passes, which is ridiculous, especially considering the next-best total was 48.5% from DeSean Jackson. While I realize that Manning, Welker, and the Thomases played a role in that, it’s still very impressive.

OK, so that doesn’t impress you. Fine. Whatever. How about the fact that he had the fifth-highest WR Rating, which is QB rating for WRs? Demaryius Thomas was second in the league (D-Jax was a real surprise in first), but nobody is going to argue that Decker is better than Thomas anyway. That said, nobody is going to argue that Decker is a top-ten or top-five receiver, but the numbers show that he’s a lot better than a “marginal” No. 2 guy.

Here’s the thing about Decker: he understands the nuances of the position extremely well, and that’s what allows him to be a good deep threat in this league. He knows how to beat defenses with double-moves, and he has subtle, savvy moves that allow him to gain separation. While he isn’t the fastest guy out there, he isn’t “Molasses” Mike Jenkins either, otherwise he wouldn’t have been in a position to average over 14 yards per catch.

I can accept the fact that some people might think Eric Decker isn’t a true No. 1 receiver, and he was a product of the Broncos success. But you can say that any quality starter on a great team benefits a whole lot from the talent around them, and Decker’s ability to make good on his opportunity shouldn’t be lost on people. He’s the best playmaker the New York Jets have had in quite some time, and I think he should surpass 80 receptions this year as the focal point of the Jets attack. But you shouldn’t evaluate receivers by volume stats, just as you don’t judge RBs and QBs by yards thrown; you should evaluate him off of his efficiency, because it’s more impressive than you might think.