NFL Picks Against the Spread is a weekly column of best bets and breakdowns to give an edge to office pool players and degenerate gamblers alike. We don’t need a disclaimer about condoning gambling, but we do recommend any actual wagers you make should be the opposite of the NFL picks advice given here.
If you’ve come here looking for news of Roger Goodell’s resignation, or perhaps word that Goodell might consider a self-imposed suspension, don’t bet on it.
Speaking of not betting on it… Let’s look at few games to avoid before getting to this week’s NFL picks.
GAMES TO AVOID
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 at Washington. Would you bet real money on Washington giving more than 3 points to anyone? Me neither. Granted, this is the Jags, and they are usually on the receiving end of double-digit point spreads… so would you bet on Jacksonville on the road getting less than a TD? Exactly. So don’t bet on this game.
Another one to stay from is the Patriots –3 at Minnesota. Right now you’re thinking “but Belichick/Brady won’t lose 2 games in a row” and “the Vikings aren’t so great, they only beat the Rams” and “New England can cover a small spread like that.” I don’t know. Even greats like Tom Brady can fall off a cliff over night. Sure, they added Revis to the defense, but this approach of surrounding Brady with average no-name talent and trading away starting offensive linemen is gonna bite them in the ass at some point. Maybe this is the year the Pats fall back to earth and their window finally shuts. I mean, if they couldn’t handle the Dolphins offense how are they gonna deal with Adrian Peterson and Cordarelle Patterson? It sounds like I’m talking you into betting on the Vikings, but soon as you do… the Patriots unleash a colossal asskicking and that’s why this one’s in the “games to avoid” section.
Week 2 NFL picks are almost as hard as they were in week 1. We’re still not sure who’s really good and who’s really bad. And yet we have this small sample that tends to cause is us to overreact.
Tennessee Titans –3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Titans beat the Chiefs pretty handily on the road last week while the Cowboys looked like a shit show losing at home on national TV. So Tennessee being installed as 3-point home favorites is an overreaction, right? Wrong. I think Tennessee might be pretty good and QB Jake Locker makes the mini-leap to Viable NFL Starter and the Cowboys are as bad as some of the forecasts predicted. Lay the short line at home, the Nashville crowd will be pumped as the Titans go to 2-0. (The Pick: Titans –3.)
Seattle Seahawks –6 at San Diego Chargers
Can I interest you in the Seattle Seahawks laying less than a TD to another football team? Does that sound like a good deal? I think it does. While I was high on the Chargers coming into this season, and I still think they’ll be decent, they couldn’t get much going against an injury-riddled Cardinals defense. I don’t think they’ll fair too well against the all-world dominators from Seattle even if this one is being played in San Diego. It’s an easy trip for the Seahawks, especially coming off 10-days rest while the Chargers played the late Monday Night game on the road. Bad spot for Phil Rivers and Company, especially facing this vicious front without starting Center Nick Hardwick. (The Pick: Seahwaks –6.)
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
OK, I wanted to put this in the “Games to Avoid” section where it belongs, but let’s go for it. The advanced line for this (before Week 1 action) was the Giants –2.5 hosting the Cardinals. Well, the Giants pooped their pants in Detroit taking a beating from the Lions on Monday Night Football, while Arizona managed to beat a decent Chargers team later that night (but did NOT cover the 2.5-point spread). Now this game has moved to Arizona –2.5 (maybe –3 by gametime). So the Cardinals are pretty good and the Giants stink, right? Maybe. But Coughlin and Eli aren’t going 0-16. They’ll get some ugly wins. For instance, this week they play at home in the 1pm slot hosting a Cardinals team coming off that late Monday night game travelling across the country to play at 10am Arizona time. Do I feel great about the Giants winning? No. But do I trust Carson Palmer laying points on the road off a short week? No. No I don’t. (The Pick: Giants +2.5.)
TEASER OF THE WEEK
A teaser allows you to move the line 6 points, so this week let’s tease the 49ers at home, opening their new stadium against the defenseless Bears, from SF –8 down to –2, with the Packers –2 hosting the Jets (also down from GB –8). This gives you two good teams with good QB’s giving less than a field goal at home to teams that just aren’t as good. (The Pick: Tease Niners –2 with Packers –2.)
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NFL Picks Last Week: 2-2