NFL Picks Against the Spread is a weekly column of best bets and breakdowns to give an edge to office pool players and degenerate gamblers alike. We don’t need a disclaimer about condoning gambling, but we do recommend any actual wagers you make should be the opposite of the NFL picks advice given here.
Seemingly every day when we click to check the NFL news, it comes with a sigh of “now what.” Who got arrested this week? How horrific is the account? Does it affect my fantasy team? Where the hell is Roger Goodell? I don’t know.
What I do know is that once again there are a few games bettors should stay away from (and a few best bets for this week’s NFL Picks). First, the bad before the worthy…
GAMES TO AVOID
Houston won an ugly game at home vs. Washington in week one and then beat a bad Raiders team in Oakland last week. So they’re 2-0 but we’re not sure how good they are. And yet they’re giving 2.5 points on the road at the New York Giants this week. It looks like the Giants might be pretty bad, but their 0-2 mark came against two decent teams in Detroit and Arizona. Are you comfortable laying points on the road with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm? Would you bet real money on this Giants team getting less than 3 points? No and no. Stay away from this game.
Also, please don’t bet on that Vikings/Saints game. New Orleans is most likely better than their 0-2 record and Minnesota is just not that good when they don’t have monstrous Adrian Peterson beating up on defenses like he does on defenseless children. It’s the Saints first home game of the year, and most signs point to a blowout. But 10.5 points is a big spread to cover in this league, especially when the Vikings still have game-breaking do-it-all WR Cordarelle Patterson to get loose in garbage time against a still-not-great Saints defense. If you bet on New Orleans, they’ll win the game but a meaningless Minnesota TD at the end will cut it to 31-21 and you’d lose the bet. And soon as you take the Vikes and the points… Drew Brees and the Saints will light it up to the tune of 41-14.
As for some best bets, let’s get to this week’s NFL Picks Against the Spread….
BEST BETS
Washington +6.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
Last year Nick Foles only started one game vs. a Top-15 defense, and so far this year he’s engineered comebacks against Jacksonville and last Monday night at Indianapolis; Washington brings a much better pass rush than either of those teams, and 6.5 or 7 points is a lot for a division game, even if Philly infamously carved up Washington in Chip Kelly’s first game to open last season. Kirk Cousins looked awfully comfortable last week as Washington exploded for 41 points after Robert Griffin III went out. But, again, that was against Jacksonville. Philly might be the better team, but also might be an overrated 2-0. Cousins has enough weapons (and the aforementioned defense) to keep Washington close. Underdogs are 22-10 against the spread so far this season; I can see this game going to the dogs as well.
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals, Under 43
The Bengals are playing good defense once again this year, most recently evidenced by shutting down Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons last week. So far Cincy is only giving up only 13 points per game while the Titans haven’t been bad on defense either, giving up about 18 per game. That doesn’t mean they will nail those exact averages to combine for just 31 points against each other this week. But it might not be far off. The Bengals like to run the ball and play conservatively (and their superstar WR A.J. Green is banged up) while the Titans are one of only 8 teams in the league averaging less than 20 ppg and only managed to score 10 points at home vs. the Cowboys subpar defensive unit. I don’t see the Titans getting past 13 or 14 points on the road against this Bengals defense and Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis always brings a conservative game plan to just get by and notch the home win. This one smells like 17-13, but even 24-14 stays under the total.
Denver Broncos +4.5 at Seattle Seahawks
Including the playoffs, Denver has played 31 straight games as a favorite. The Seahawks are the defending champs thanks to the beatdown they dropped on Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl. Manning famously loves to audible at the line, and I don’t know how his teammates will hear his cries of “Omaha!” with the Seattle crowd noise raining down on them. I’m not sure if Broncos WR Wes Welker will make it out of his first real game action alive. I’m having a hard time picturing the Seahawks losing two games in a row, or losing at home at all… so I think Seattle wins a tight one, but I’ll take Peyton Manning getting the points in a mini-revenge spot.
Indianapolis Colts -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Oftentimes in this space I warn against road favorites and/or point spreads that are too high for division games… but last week I watched the Jaguars play football and they weren’t very good at it. I’ve also watched the Colts this year, and they’ve somehow looked okay while still managing to fall to 0-2 with losses to two decent teams in the Eagles and Broncos. The Jags are not a decent team, and the Colts know they must re-start their season with a big division win this weekend. The venue doesn’t matter. Andrew Luck is the best young QB in the league, and he should have little trouble pacing the Colts to a comfortable lead in this must-win game. RB Toby Gerhardt does not appear to be the feature back answer in Jacksonville and Chad Henne is just a place holder until the Blake Bortles era starts. Colts cruise 31-17.