10 & Out Week 4: Real king of the NFC West & the rise of the Rookie QB, plus NFL Picks & Top 3 Panthers
By Kevin Casini
Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson hypes up the crowd during the second half against the 49ers Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals won 23-14. Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
A solid Sunday of NFL football capped off by an overtime super bowl rematch the NFL sorely needed. The bad pr isn’t going away anytime soon, but for people who watch sports as a timeout from the trials of real life, the games themselves were entertaining. On to week 4.
What I learned this week these weeks…
The Cardinals are for realsies. Especially on defense. All that without Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington or John Abraham. Credit to defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, who won’t be a defensive coordinator for much longer but they’re going to have to step it up even more after Antonio Cromartie and Deone Bucannon left the Niners game early.
The Eagles D is just the opposite. Amazing comebacks all around, and another crazy, Big 12 style shoot out with division rival Redskins. But their defense is abysmal right now.
Tony Romo led the Cowboys on another comeback win over the St. Louis Rams, but lost in the euphoria was another lost fumble for Demarco Murray. That’s three in three games for the start running back.
The AFC West is shaping up to be quite the tête-à-tête between Denver and San Diego, who think they have the Broncos’ number. The offense may experience a hiccup without Ryan Mathews and now losing jack-of-all-trades Danny Woodhead, but their defense is still being under valued. It’s very possible, the 2-1 Chargers could be the 6-1 Chargers heading into their first meeting with Denver: they’re home for Jacksonville and the Jets, at Oakland, and home for Kansas City before traveling to Mile High on October 23rd for a Thursday nighter. Meanwhile, after this week’s bye, the Broncos face Arizona at home, head to the Jets and get San Francisco at home before that Charger game. They’ll have a tougher time being 5-1 on October 23rd but if they survive the game against San Diego they get rewarded with a trip to Foxboro the next week. Oof.
More useless predictions…I hit you last week with Jay Cutler, Phil Rivers and Chandler Jones. Here are some more predictions to keep an eye on for 2014-15 in the NFL
- “Kirk Cousins will start for the Redskins…” Ok so this is a foregone conclusion but I thought this would happen for performance reasons, as mentioned last week. This was a bit soon.
- “Rookie QB Zach Mettenberger will get a hard look from the Titans…” for the same reasons I expected Cousins to play for Washington I thought the LSU product would get time in Nashville: namely, Jake ‘Hurt’ Locker. Well, Locker underwent and MRI this week and if he can’t go he may be in danger of getting Wally Pipped by Mettenberger.
- “Mark Sanchez will play, and play well, for the Eagles.” Last season the Eagles offensive line played five starters every game, all season. This year already they’re on to four backups. With as many plays as they run, and as thin as their line is getting, it’s an inevitability that Nick Foles will miss some time. Chip knew this, and that’s why he got Sanchez.
- “The NFL will announce a major move into L.A.…” I have been advocating for this to the three people that will listen to me for a long time. Here’s the Casini plan: Relocate your headquarters and official league offices to Los Angeles, maintaining your Park Avenue suites as well. Build and NFL owned and operated stadium, theme park, interactive playground, shopping complex, hotels, museum, conference and media centers. The Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton is about the players. Make an NFL Museum about the league, the game. NFL Films could show movies. Of course there’d be an enormous gift shop like the Times Square NBA store too. House the Pro Bowl there permanently, making it a spectacle leading into the Super Bowl, not something that just happens in the off week. Include the to-be-sponsored NFL Stadium in a short rotation of super bowl sites, or alternate off years: one year in LA, one on the road, and back home again. The marketability alone of branding the playoffs the Road to LA is almost too good to pass up and in the age of negative feelings towards the NFL any big splash announcement that isn’t about an arrest or an indictment would be welcomed.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugh
Good: Matt Ryan has been outstanding. At nearly 322 yards per game and completing more than 68% of his passes, Ryan has thrown for seven touchdowns in three games, although he has also thrown three interceptions. After four consecutive 4,100+ yard seasons, Ryan has somehow improved. You would think the 56-14 drubbing they put on Tampa would have been a stat-padder but his attack against the Saints in the opener was his best statistical game. What I’m talking about goes beyond the stats: he’s more comfortable with his weapons going deep, and its opened up a lot of things underneath that are coming very easily to Matty Ice.
Bad: The Cleveland Browns tried a trick play that had John F. Football on the receiving end of a Brian Hoyer sideline pass. Too bad it was illegal for about five reasons. JFF, you have to square to the line, have to be more than five yards away from the sideline, have to report, and can’t be in motion while someone else is. Almost though, Kyle Shanahan. Almost.
Ugh: The Patriots offensive line was just that, offensive. This was more than just Logan Mankins missing on the left side, there were major, basic protection breakdowns from left, where Nate Solder looks like he’s taken a major step-backwards and where Marcus Cannon is learning a new position, to right, where former tuba player Jordan Devey is completely out of his depth at guard. They’d better fix something soon in the wake of long-time OL coach Dante Scarnecchia‘s retirement, because their next four games feature defensive lines from Kansas City, Cincinnati, Buffalo and the New York Jets. Yikes, good luck.
Speaking of the Cincinnati Bengals, they may just be the most complete team in the NFL. Their schedule this week gives them a dozen days to prepare for the New England Patriots, after which they play the Panthers, Colts, Ravens, Jaguars and Browns. If they manage another win over New England (the Bengals won last season 13-6 at home) they may just go on a run and sew up their division early.
Mystery Team…leads the league in rushing yards against at a paltry 55 per game, and stands second in the league in rushing at 157 yards per game. Who are they?
FWIW…The Jets are now 0-10 under Rex Ryan when trailing by 10 or more points after the 1st quarter.
Hey, didn’t you used to be…Veteran quarterbacks? Including the little trick number the Browns pulled no fewer than four rookie quarterbacks played on Sunday, when Blake “Teenage Mutant Ninja” Bortles™ took over for Chad Henne in Jacksonville, Teddy Bridgewater came in for the injured Matt Cassell in Minneapolis, Derek Carr started in Foxboro against the Patriots. With Jake Locker’s MRI forthcoming, Zach Mettenberger could be number five for the Titans.
Top Three…Panthers
Steve Smith
Tony Dorsett / Dan Marino (tie) (Pitt)
W2W4: Philadelphia at San Francisco – this could be a make-or-break for Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers. Their trademark has been defense, but they are down player after player on that side of the ball. They’ll face no tougher test than Chip Kelly’s Eagle offense. Meanwhile the Eagles themselves have some things to prove: namely, can they avoid another slow start, can they protect the ball, and can they play a complete game against top competition? They haven’t done any of that thus far in the 2014 season. I’m calling this the game of the week. Special mention to an early season division rivalry game between the Bears and Packers. Don’t let grandpa watch, he won’t recognize it when the scores get into the forties.
Mystery Team revealed….New York Jets, duh.
****UPDATED****
Locks of the Century of the Week…including my Patriots win parlay and my Saints eliminator pool pick (which you’ll get going forward) I was a robust 5-1 last week, bringing the season total to 9-3. It’s still early but there are lines that look too good not to move, so I’m taking them before they do. After injury reports are out Friday we will update the picks. Below, changes have been made.
DET -1.5 @ NYJ – Nothing, NOTHING, about Monday made me think the Jets could hang with a good offensive team if it came down to responding to scoring drives with their own. It only gets worse here. Detroit is far better on defense than the Bears and has the offensive weapons to torment the lost jets secondary. Slight adjustment by Vegas GIVING the Jets points this week but I’ll lay them and take Detroit 27-20. Lions -1.5
GB -1.5 @ CHI – “I continue to expect good things from the Bears. They have no defense right now without Peanut Tillman in back, it’s a lot to ask of Lance Briggs alone, but Green Bay doesn’t have much of one either, and again I can’t see them covering the Bears receivers or stopping Forte with a bunch of nobodies up front. Missing LB Clay Mathews again isn’t going to help either. Bears + 1.5” I thought this line would move, and it hasn’t. Green Bay still laying points on the road is telling. After reviewing practice sessions for both teams I’m reversing field here. While it looks like Packers LB Clay Matthews will play, Bears WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey have been limited in practice, and, along with DB Ryan Mundy, Jared Allen and Center Roberto Garza missed practice again. By all the metrics the Jets had the Bears beat on Monday, but untimely calls and coaching went against them. The calls are bound to even out. After a short week, I’m not sold the Bears can maintain their focus. On the other side, the Packers have had a hard time against three of the top run defenses in the league, and the Green Bay offense needs to run the ball to succeed. With Bryan Bulaga at Center I think they can move the ball against a very porous Bears defense that now may be without Allen and Mundy. We’re switching sides here, PACKERS -1.5
NO -3 @ DAL – Three points at home is usually a good bet. Vegas seems to still think the Saints are a team to beat in the NFC, and may still be clinging to their original Cowboys predictions. In fact, some Vegas heavies have New Orleans as the 3rd best team in the NFL, despite a 1-2 record. I still have them to win the division, so it might as well start here. Dallas may not win nine games this season, but they showed a lot of moxie in a game against a Rams defense that can certainly outplay that of the Saints. Can the Dallas defense do anything to slow down Drew Brees? Last week a third stringer named Something Austin (doesn’t matter) had them against the ropes. I’m still not sold on New Orleans, and Dallas getting three at home means neutral field would be a pick ’em, but the Saints are the more talented team top to bottom. Having won on the Cowboys last week, a miracle in and of itself, I’m not touching this one, but go ahead, lay the points. Saints -3
ATL -3 @ MIN – This one smells like a trap. TRAP GAME. Vikes are without Matt Cassell which means Louisville rookie Teddy Bridgewater is the QB of the future and the present. The Vikings put Cassell on IR with a lis franc injury to his wrist. Now, they’re not going to score 56 points this week, but the Falcons will score. Can the Vikings do the same without Adrian Peterson, without their starting quarterback, without tight end Kyle Rudolph or linebacker Chad Greenway? I don’t see it. Falcons -3 No notable injuries to Atlanta now that Roddy White has vowed to play. No change here.
TB + 7.5 @ PIT – “that’s a lot of points for a team I just don’t think is very good. Bucs +7.5.” **The Steelers are beat up for sure, but word comes, after Tampa OC Jeff Tedford has taken an indefinite leave of absence to address medical issues, that QB Josh McCown won’t play this week either. How much weight you want to give to either depends on what you think of backup QB Mike Glennon, but I’m still taking the points here. Bucs +7.5.
BUF +3 @ HOU – “the wagon wheels come off in Houston. Texans -3.” **The Texans may be again be without Jadeveon Clowney, Arian Foster and safety DJ Swearinger. I’m switching this to a no-play.
MONEY LINE – parlay anything you like with a Colts win and/or a Chargers win. Especially the Chargers. It doesn’t help much but at least it covers the juice elsewhere. Last week’s parlays with a Patriots W paid $110 on $100.
ELIMINATOR PICK – WK 1 Philly WK 2 Green Bay WK 3 New Orleans WK 4 San Diego
REMEMBER: Do your own research. Bet your beer money not your car payment. And, as always, check back on Friday for final picks and analysis.
NFL Week 4 10 & Out NFL Lines NFL Week 3