10 & Out’s Pick 6: Pickin’ Winners and Buyin’ Dinners – ATS, Parlays & Eliminator Picks for Week 4 in the NFL
By Kevin Casini
Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome! The abbreviated version of 10 & Out, where we’re just dishin’ winners and dinners for NFL Week 4. It’s called the Pick 6! I’ll bring you picks of the week, parlay kickers, and my eliminator pool team. I’m only in one pool, and only have one entry, so it’s legit.
Including my Patriots win parlay and my Saints eliminator pool pick (which you’ll get going forward) I was a robust 5-1 last week, bringing the season total to 9-3. It’s still early but there are lines that look too good not to move, so I’m taking them before they do.
DET -1.5 @ NYJ – Nothing, NOTHING, about Monday made me think the Jets could hang with a good offensive team if it came down to responding to scoring drives with their own. Their defense can still play, and if it were only up to them they would’ve beaten the Bears Monday but they may be without Muhammad Wilkerson this week. On the other side of the ball, they’ve been missing WR Eric Decker and C Nick Mangold in practice. Detroit is far better on defense than the Bears and has the offensive weapons to torment the lost Jets secondary, even if Megatron has missed practice this week. No one likes the Jets this week, because of the MNF debacle, and their losses always become more high-profile than those of other teams. Usually its a bad sign when the public is all-in on one side, because usually the public are squares. I think this is the week Geno bottoms out and the Mike Vick talk begins. Slight adjustment by Vegas GIVING the Jets points this week but I’ll lay them and take Detroit 27-20. Lions -1.5 BTW, with a loss, does Rex make it the rest of the season? If they lose to Detroit, they’re staring at a 5-game losing streak: @ Chargers; v. Broncos; @ Patriots on Thursday night.
GB -1.5 @ CHI – I thought this line would move, and it hasn’t. Green Bay still laying points on the road is telling. After reviewing practice sessions for both teams I’m reversing field here. While it looks like Packers LB Clay Matthews will play, Bears WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey have been limited in practice, and, along with DB Ryan Mundy, Jared Allen and Center Roberto Garza missed practice again. By all the metrics the Jets had the Bears beat on Monday, but untimely calls and coaching went against them. The calls are bound to even out. After a short week, I’m not sold the Bears can maintain their focus. On the other side, the Packers have had a hard time against three of the top run defenses in the league, and the Green Bay offense needs to run the ball to succeed. With Bryan Bulaga at Center I think they can move the ball against a very porous Bears defense that now may be without Allen and Mundy. Earlier in the week I had the Bears, but we’re switching sides here,PACKERS -1.5
NO -3 @ DAL – Three points at home is usually a good bet. Vegas seems to still think the Saints are a team to beat in the NFC, and may still be clinging to their original Cowboys predictions. In fact, some Vegas heavies have New Orleans as the 3rd best team in the NFL, despite a 1-2 record. I still have them to win the division, so it might as well start here. Dallas may not win nine games this season, but they showed a lot of moxie in a game against a Rams defense that can certainly outplay that of the Saints. Can the Dallas defense do anything to slow down Drew Brees? Last week a third stringer had them against the ropes. I’m still not sold on New Orleans, and Dallas getting three at home means neutral field would be a pick ’em, but the Saints are the more talented team top to bottom. Having won with the Cowboys last week, a miracle in and of itself, I’m not touching this one, but go ahead, lay the points. Previously, my analysis above was more or less the same, and I was taking points. Again, Vegas is on the Cowboys side and I’m with the public, but a good Saints team has to be hiding in there. It’s so easy to take points at home but the Cowboys just aren’t that good, and if the Saints are, they need to show it here. Saints -3
ATL -3 @ MIN – Even though there are No notable injuries to Atlanta now that Roddy White has vowed to play, this one smells like a trap. TRAP GAME. Vikes are without Matt Cassell which means Louisville rookie Teddy Bridgewater is the QB of the future and the present. The Vikings put Cassell on IR with a lis franc injury to his wrist. Now, they’re not going to score 56 points this week, but the Falcons will score. Can the Vikings do the same without Adrian Peterson, without their starting quarterback, without tight end Kyle Rudolph or linebacker Chad Greenway? I don’t see it. Falcons -3. No change here.
TB + 7.5 @ PIT – Seven and a half is a lot of points for a Steelers team I just don’t think is very good. Word comes, after Tampa OC Jeff Tedford has taken an indefinite leave of absence to address medical issues, that QB Josh McCown won’t play this week either. How much weight you want to give to either depends on what you think of backup QB Mike Glennon, but I’m still taking the points here. The Steelers are beat up for sure, (James Harrison?), Tampa returns RB Doug Martin after a full week of practice, and I think Lovie can find a way to keep it close. but Bucs +7.5.
BUF +3 @ HOU – I had said previously, in 10 & Out, “the wagon wheels come off in Houston. Texans -3.” However, the Texans may again be without Jadeveon Clowney, Arian Foster and safety DJ Swearinger. I’m switching this to a no-play. If Foster goes, take Houston.
MONEY LINE – parlay anything you like with a Colts win and/or a Chargers win. Especially the Chargers. It doesn’t help much but at least it covers the juice elsewhere. Last week’s parlays with a Patriots W paid $110 on $100.
ELIMINATOR PICK – WK 1 Philly WK 2 Green Bay WK 3 New Orleans WK 4 San Diego
REMEMBER: Do your own research. Bet your beer money not your car payment. And, as always, check back on Friday for final picks and analysis.