Derek Carr Assessment Through Week 4

Sep 21, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Back in May of this year, four quarterbacks were selected within the first 40 picks in the 2014 NFL Draft. Those four were Blake Bortles (Jacksonville), Johnny Manziel (Cleveland), Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota), and Derek Carr (Oakland). Of that group, Carr was the only one to have the starting job in week one. While Bortles and Bridgewater recently both assumed the starting jobs in week three, neither had started the year. Being the only original starter in the class, especially a class as talented as this one, puts a lot of pressure on Carr. Through four weeks, Carr has had his ups and downs, but there is less to be scared of about Carr than there is to be excited about him.

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Carr’s accuracy has been shaky thus far. Certain routes especially give Carr trouble. For instance, intermediate/deep crossing routes have been a route Carr has yet to display impressive placement on. Almost every time he throws that route, he throws a few yards short of the receiver. Intermediate/deep crosses are a useful tool for displaying the ability to be able to beat teams horizontally around the field, but if Carr can not hit those throws, Oakland will struggle to assert that aspect of the offense.

Aside from that specific route, Carr has also been missing one or two easy, routine throws per game. Most notably, Carr had missed wide on a short curl to James Jones against Houston. As would be expected, Carr was ripped apart by the media for that throw, and deservingly so. There was no excuse for missing the throw. Carr had done everything right and his pocket was clean, but he simply misfired. While it is unacceptable to miss those throws, rookies can get away with it. For reference, Geno Smith got away with throws of that nature quite often last season.

The most concerning issue is Carr’s vision. In college, Carr thrived at reading defenses prior to the snap and exposing the areas of the field he knew would be open. Likewise, he had done a good job of finding open receivers after an original read. Through a quarter of his rookie season, Carr has not shown that same type of mental prowess. But step back for a moment. Many fans forget that quarterbacks are not always mentally “there,” even if they were impressive prospects. The few anomalies like Andrew Luck have skewed the perception on that. Carr’s mental errors are not all too often, but the few that he makes are detrimental.

Carr’s vision over the middle of the field has been questionable, but that could very well be linked to how scarcely he had to throw over the middle in college. There have been a number of open receivers that Carr has missed crossing over the middle of the field in favor of a deep throw down the sideline, which was a key concept in his college offense at Fresno State. His lack of field vision, at the moment, can not be entirely written off as reflex because of his collegiate offense, but it is fair to say that he is preferring what he is comfortable with, much like any rookie would.

As just mentioned, Carr had excelled pre-snap at Fresno State. In Oakland, he is missing some key blitz pickups or instances in which the defense tips their hand. Below, the Jets leave an unusual amount of room for the two inside receivers to Carr’s right to work with. Carr does not pick up on this, hesitates to throw at either receiver, and eventually takes an ugly sack. Carr needs to be more aware of the situation at times such as that.

All that said about Carr struggling, he has improved in a few areas that he was knocked for in college. Throughout the draft process, Carr was often bashed for how he handled pass rush pressure, his footwork, and how poorly he threw when forced off of his spot. Though the season is still young, it appears as if Carr has made strides in all of those areas.

Carr looks more comfortable maneuvering the pocket now than he ever did in college. He has proven that he can step up into the pocket, as well as around pass rushers in order to “clean” the pocket for himself and make a throw. It is evident that Carr looks much more poised and confident in the pocket than he did just some nine months ago.

On a tangent, footwork and pocket presence are linked to each other. Carr’s footwork on drop backs, as well as when moving around the pocket, has looked much smoother. He has quickly acclimated to a more pro-style system in which initial footwork is key. Getting his initial footwork on a more natural rhythm makes throws much easier than if he were to take first few steps lackadaisically (see Nick Foles and the repercussions of his poor footwork). If the original throw is not there, Carr has also shown improvement in setting his feet for the next progression and possible throw. Carr still has some kinks to work out in his footwork, but it would be absurd to think he has not improved in that area already.

Lastly, Carr has clearly developed his ability to throw outside of the pocket, a.k.a “off his spot.” At Fresno State, where the offense functioned on quick-hitting throws and pre-determined targets, Carr did not do his team any favors when he was throwing outside of the pocket. In the short time he has spent with quarterback coach John DeFilippo, Carr has cleaned up the way he sets up to throw when throwing outside of the pocket and has been able to make better throws as a result. As sad as it is to say, that has been a common situation for Carr behind that Oakland offensive line.

As a whole, Carr has looked like, well, a rookie. With rookies, one has to realize that it is better for them to make mistakes (that will be accompanied by flashes of greatness) instead of being overly conservative and not truly learning. Carr has certainly shown that he has his deficiencies, but he has also quickly improved in key areas and has flashed incredible ball placement. He may not do much for the team in 2014 (that also has to do with how bad the rest of the team is), but there is a likely chance that Carr is here to stay considering how fast his development has been up to this point.

(Derek Carr injury report from game vs Miami Dolphins)

Carr’s stats compared to previous rookie quarterbacks through first four games:

2014. Derek Carr: 84/133 completions (63.15%), TD % of 3.00%, INT % of 3.00%, 5.52 yards per attempt

2013. Geno Smith: 78/136 completions (57.35%), TD % of 2.94%, INT % of 5.88%, 8.01 yards per attempt

2012. Andrew Luck: 96/177 completions (54.23%), TD % of 3.95%, INT % of 2.82%, 6.24 yards per attempt

2011. Cam Newton: 97/163 completions (59.50%), TD % of 3.06%, INT % of 3.06%, 10.19 yards per attempt

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