10 & Out’s Pick 6, Winnin’ & Grinnin’ – ATS, Eliminator Pool, Straight Winners
By Kevin Casini
Mar 15, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the MGM Grand hotel and casino on the Las Vegas strip. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Oooh la lahhh 5-2 last week, (falcon Atlanta….) leaves me at 14-5 on the season, and I should never have given up on Tony Romo. Hoping you checked the injury reports Sunday am and saw Arian Foster was playing against Buffalo. Played the Packers to win last night, some would say it was too safe a pick, but hey it’s some clams in my pocket, helps offset losses. 15-5.
Locks of the Century of the Week…
CLE +1.5 @ TEN – 1.5 Who’s starting for Tennessee? Until its Zach Mettenberger, I’m done with them. At that line you can make it a pick so if you’re looking for an underdog, here it is. Browns +1.5
CHI +2.5 @ CAR -2.5 The Panthers have no running game. I don’t mean they can’t run, I mean they are without any running backs after both Jon Stewart (again) and DeAngelo Williams (again) will miss the game (again). I may be starting to form a Jay Cutler bias but I think a Grumpy Jay against the 27th passing defense in the NFL is too good when you’re getting points. Bears +2.5
BUF +7 @ DET – 7 Hmm. No EJ Manuel, insert Kyle Orton. Is that good or bad? He’s certainly a pro at the quarterback position, this now being the third or fourth time he’s been thrown in to save a season. What’s he going up against? On defense the Lions are second in the league against the pass and sixth against the run. Held that same Packers team you saw last night to a touchdown. Seven points is a big number in this league, but I’ve seen some ridiculous blowout games already this season. If this one gets away from Buffalo early, it could be another. Lions -7
IND -3.5 @ BAL+3.5 – I decided that even though I like Baltimore, and I LOVE getting more than a FG at home, I’m not betting against Andrew Luck this week, if at all. No play on this one.
SD -6.5 @ NYJ +6.5 – The lines are finally starting to catch up to the Chargers, who I’ve said have had a much better defense than the betting public knows. The Vegas guys are taking these points because they know San Diego doesn’t travel real well, they know the Jets front seven can be disruptive, and they know Rex is coaching for his job here. There’s an economist breaking down spreads and he has this as a -10.5, saying the Chargers are getting dogged by the “intangibles” and the numbers say they should win in a walk. I kind of agree. Chargers -6.5
SEA -7.5 @ WAS +7.5 – Again, the sharps are taking the points. They like the Redskins QB situation now, more predictable for their models. One metric I’m looking at thinks the Seahawks should be 10-point favorites here. Hard to argue when you see what the Giants defense did to Cousins. Then again that same place had Green Bay -4 last night. Try -40. Looking at the numbers, Washington is fourth in the league in passing yards per game. Against Seattle you’d think that would be nullified but actually the Seahawks pass defense is middle of the pack so far this year, 19th in the league at 249 ypg. Flip the ball, and the Redskins defense as surrendered only 97 yards rushing per game, the clear strong suit of Seattle is their running attack. Yes, Seattle is coming off of a bye, but the Redskins played last Thursday, so that’s about 11 days for them as well. Probably have to double check all the injury reports on Monday am but for now, Redskins -7.5
MONEY LINE – As I said, I took Green Bay to win with my parlays this week. Halfway home. Parlay picks are either about maxing your payout or covering your vig. It’s sometimes a risky move to make an entirely separate play just to cover the juice, but sometimes when you know, you know. If you run it along with your eliminator pick you get bang for your buck. Of course, if you lose, you’re sunk. So, in the interests of maximizing winnings, if you want to take a dog, take. CLEVELAND +155. If you want a favored straight winner, try Pittsburgh.
ELIMINATOR PICK– WK 1 Philly WK 2 Green Bay WK 3 New Orleans WK 4 San Diego
WK 5 Detroit – Vegas is really pushing the envelope now with New Orleans a -10.5 at home against Tampa. You’re tempted, this may be the easiest game left on their schedule. But man have they looked bad. Thankfully, I already picked them. Detroit is a good pick, see above, but they have a few games you may like down the road. The Steelers are not as bad as they were against Tampa, but not good enough to get to 3-1. I like Bortles too, but game two, with some actual media pressure this week, against a defensive coordinator that has been working longer than you’ve been alive. If you’re saving Detroit, I like the Steelers to win.
REMEMBER: Do your own research. Bet your beer money not your car payment. And, as always, check back on Friday for final picks and analysis.
10 & Out’s Pick 6, Winnin’ & Grinnin’ – ATS, Eliminator Pool, Straight Winners
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