NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5

NFL Picks Against the Spread is a weekly column of best bets and breakdowns to give an edge to office pool players and degenerate gamblers alike. We don’t need a disclaimer about condoning gambling, but we do recommend any actual wagers you make should be the opposite of the NFL picks advice given here.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions, OVER 43.5
At first glance, you’d like to assume that most Lions games inside the dome in Detroit would be high-scoring affairs, just based on the presence of QB Matt Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson. But then you see the total set at 43.5 and wonder why they expect a lower scoring game. First, the Lions defense is only giving up 15.5 points per game; second, the Bills employ a run-heavy attack and are now turning to backup QB Kyle Orton after benching EJ Manuel. So…. We should bet the under? Not necessarily…. Orton isn’t the long-term solution in Buffalo, and he’s most recently famous for losing his job to Tim Tebow when both were in Denver. But he’s a professional veteran quarterback with two good running backs and some outside weapons as well. After a promising 2-0 start, the Bills have dropped two games in a row and the benching of Manuel will either cause the team to unravel (and get blown out by the Lions) or perhaps rally behind Orton (at least this week) and score more than expected. And with a manageable total like 43.5, it doesn’t have to be a shootout to go over. A normal 24-21 or 27-17 game will send this one Over 43.5.

Cleveland Browns +2 at Tennessee Titans
I correctly (and luckily?) picked the Titans at Kansas City in week one, and they won that game outright as underdogs. Since then, they’ve smelled like dogs… Whether Jake Locker returns at QB or Charlie Whitehurst gets the nod again for Tennessee… they aren’t a great football team. Speaking of not-great football teams: the Cleveland Browns, ladies and gentlemen! But this Browns team is looking decent. They really shoulda/coulda beat the Ravens, they did beat the Saints, and came back to take the Steelers to OT after getting blown out in the first half. While the world waits for Johnny Manziel, the Browns current QB Brian Hoyer is quietly pretty good. Cleveland is coming off the bye, and that might be the small edge they need to win this week. After starting the season by facing Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Drew Brees, Cleveland defenders will be delighted to see either Locker or Whitehurst under center Sunday. The Browns reputation as a “bad team” (and their streak of 8 consecutive road losses) and the fact that the game is at Tennessee are probably the reasons why the Titans are favored. (The fact they are at home and only favored by 2 points against a “bad team” tells you Vegas has no confidence in the Titans to win this game.) Tennessee has scored the fourth-fewest points in the league, hasn’t scored at all in the first quarter, and ranks 28th in time of possession. That won’t get it done against a hungry and rested Browns team averaging 25 points per game. Look for Cleveland to notch a rare road win.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars, OVER 47
Pittsburgh gave up 350 yards at home to the previously winless Bucs with Mike Glennon making his first start of the year and the Steelers are the 2nd-most penalized team in the league. New Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles looks like the real deal so far, notching 21 first downs last week and completing 9/14 passes on third downs at San Diego. The Steelers are scoring about 24 points per game and giving up almost 25. Meanwhile the Jaguars defense is giving up league-worst averages of 38 points and 451 total yards (321 passing). I think you see where I’m going with this. Big Ben, Leveon Bell, and Antonio Brown should light up the scoreboard, and Pittsburgh’s no-longer-formidable defense is likely to give up some garbage-time points as Bortles tries to keep up.

Atlanta Falcons +4 at New York Giants
The Falcons aren’t as good on the road as they are in the friendly confines of their home dome… as evidenced by last week’s loss to the Vikings as road favorites in Minnesota. The Giants got their groove back with a Thursday-night drubbing at Washington so they come into this one with a few extra days of rest. Since everyone just saw New York win a blowout on national TV (and the Falcons lost to what was supposedly an inferior Vikings squad) the perception of these teams has skewed the line a bit too far in the Giants favor. New York might get the win if Atlanta’s defense continues to struggle, but with Matt Ryan and the Falcon’s receivers (and the fact that this Giants team isn’t that great), Atlanta should certainly be able to score enough to keep this one close and possibly win the game outright.

The Wild West Teaser
The New York Jets have been a mess on offense, thanks in part to wildly erratic play from QB Geno Smith (formerly of Wild & Wonderful West Virginia) while his counterpart this weekend in Philip Rivers has fulfilled the wild west gunslinger role formerly played by Peyton Manning. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been good, Drew Stanton has been a serviceable fill-in at QB, and they come out of the bye at 3-0. But they’re not going 16-0, and they’ll pick up their first loss this weekend in Denver where the Broncos will be looking to get back to their winning ways after coming up short in OT at Seattle. A “teaser” allows you to move the point spread 6 points in your favor, so tease the Chargers and Broncos each down from -7 to -1 as both wild west teams should win at home this week.