Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
What I learned this week this week…
The reported demise of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots was a bit premature. They went back to basics and beat, and beat up, the Bengals on SNF. Certainly helped that Cincinnati couldn’t hang on to any Andy Dalton passes, and were abysmal at tackling in the front seven, but credit the Patriots for rebounding in a huge spot, on national television, and beating a top conference opponent. Now they’ll face the Buffalo Bills in the first game in a long while between these two that’s meant something. The Patriots have lost three in a row on the road to AFC East opponents, already losing Week 1 in Miami. The Bills have the far easier path the rest of the season; Buffalo’s opponents are only 22-29, worst in the league. And the way to beat Tom Brady? Pressure. The Bills are tied for the league-lead with 17 sacks. It’s early, but this is a pivotal game.
Tony Romo is feeling much better, thanks, and the Dallas Cowboys are for real, but starting running back DeMarco Murray lost another fumble. That makes four in five games. That’s an overlooked but awful trend.
Larry Fitzgerald’s contract numbers are BIG: 2015- $23.6M, 2016- $17.6M, 2017- $14.4M, 2018- $17.4M. The Cardinals are not going to pay that kind of money to an aging receiver who hasn’t had a 1,000-yd season since 2012, and if he’s not traded at the draft he may be a cap casualty in the desert. But consider this, dating back to the start of his career in 2004 he has had John Navarre, Shaun King, Josh McCown, Kurt Warner, John Skelton, Max Hall (who?), Matt Leinart, Derek Anderson, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Lindley (that’s not a kicker?), Brian Hoyer, Carson Palmer Drew Stanton and now Logan Thomas throwing him passes. In his monster years, it was all Kurt Warner, and they went to the Super Bowl.
Told ya so…The NFL announced this week they expect to be in Los Angeles with one or two teams in the next 24 months. Hmm, where did I read that before?
The Good, the Bad and the Ugh
Good: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos…Peyton was 31-47 for 479 yards (new personal record) and four TDs. In the last two weeks, against STOUT defenses in Seattle and Arizona, Peyton is averaging 391 yards and completing 64.6% of his passes. Against top defenses. Man, the league keeps changing the rules and Peyton keeps exploiting them.
Bad: Detroit Lions kicker Alex Henery missed three field goals (INDOORS!) from 44, 47 and 50-yards, and capped off a stop in Detroit going 1-5 in total. Last year in Philly, Henery hit at a 82% rate. Not great, Bob. In response the Lions cut him and replaced him with former Rocky Mountain Bon Vivant Matt Prater. Major upgrade.
Ugh: Jim Schwartz and the Buffalo Bills defense…Credit to them for holding a struggling Lions offense to 16 points, but their kicker missed three FGs and you have your defense carry you off the field like it’s the end of a Disney movie? You’re a joke, no wonder even the Lions couldn’t deal with you. I’d love to know what Belichick and Harbaugh thought of that.
Whatever…The New York Giants are also back, and it looks like the NFC East might be a lot tighter than anticipated. That’s great football. They’ve won three in a row and I guess Eli was right, the offensive line was coming together after all. Whatever.
Grounded…So, after the embarrassment that was the 0-31 whuppin’ they took at the hands of the Chargers, it leaks that New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith, he of the tenuous grip on his job, planted on the hot seat Smiths, missed a team meeting on Saturday because he was at a movie. Turns out Rex keeps the Jets on East Coast time when they travel (he’s so brilliant) and Geno doesn’t wear a watch, he uses his phone, which changes automatically. Whether he screwed up the time or not, what was the (craptastic) starting quarterback doing throwing away two-plus hours the day before a conference road game? As if that wasn’t bad enough, when Rex benched Geno, not for missing a team meeting, but for being lousy at his job, backup Mike Vick fared no better. No we know at least a partial answer why. Turns out Vick didn’t really practice all that much or prepare for the game. Only the Jets. Doesn’t know who called a timeout. Doesn’t know where his quarterback is, the doesn’t punish him for skipping a meeting. Doesn’t bother to have the backup QB ready. Finally, this fake-toothed loudmouth can be put out of is misery.
Mystery Team…Second in the NFL, passing yards against, ninth against the run, third in overall defense.
FWIW…The Philadelphia Eagles have five return TDs in the last two weeks. Right now they’d be the #1 seed in the NFC at 4-1.
UnLucky?…Indianapolis got the win in a game that wasn’t really as close as the score. The Ravens picked him off twice, both deflected passes, and they had one TD called back on a hold away from the play and a fumble inside the Baltimore 10-yard line. It ended up 20-13 but easily could’ve been 30-3.
Top Three…Colts
Peyton Manning
Billy Dee Williams (.45)
W2W4: Not a lot of great games this week, sooner or later it has to happen, but of note are a trip to the Pacific Northwest by Dallas and an early-season battle for first in the AFC East (New England @ Buffalo). If the Cowboys want to prove how for-real they are, they need to show up in this game. Luckily for them they’ve had some silent-count experience at home recently. Meanwhile, in Buffalo, former Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes awaits, after predicting his new team would beat the patriots twice this season.
Mystery Team revealed….the San Diego Chargers…told ya.
Locks of the Century of the Week… Soooo. Instead of one at a time I tried to stack my winners together, and the Lions cost me a six-teamer. Still, did pretty well and stand at 20-8 on the season. After so many blowout favorite covers, you’d have to think things will right themselves. But this may be a new NFL altogether. Anyway, games consider this week, with final picks going up tomorrow in our Pick 6 :
SD -7 @ OAK + 7 PIT +2 @ CLE -2
ARI -3.5 @ WAS +3.5 NEP -3 @ BUF +3
MONEY LINE – Told you to take Cleveland. Hoyer came through, biggest road comeback in NFL history, 26 unanswered points. Sure it was against the Titans and their backup quarterback, but still, impressive. I’ll take the win. This week, forget trying to pair Denver win with any ATS picks, you’ll be lucky to get any line at all. Best bet on a dog this week? PITTSBURGH +110
ELIMINATOR PICK– WK 1 Philly WK 2 Green Bay WK 3 New Orleans WK 4 San Diego
WK 5 Detroit WK 6 Denver – Stupid. I liked Pittsburgh but I picked Detroit. Ed’s league has a patented Buy-Back® so I’m back in, but now I’ll have to be more cautious. Hopefully you went with Pittsburgh. Since I can’t afford any room for error here, I have to stop looking ahead so I’m taking Denver.
REMEMBER: Do your own research. Bet your beer money not your car payment. And, as always, check back on Friday for final picks and analysis.
NFL Week 6
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