10 & Out’s Pick 6: Vegas Spread & Survivor Pool, 70% winners!

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Locks of the Century of the Week…Finally a wining week in the bank account. Thankfully for me I switched my New England and Chargers plays, laying the Patriots points and adding a SD win kicker. Fair play to me, but I’ll go with what was printed, so a 4-2 week, 24-10 on the year. Here’s what we were looking at this week. BOLD picks are getting made.

SEA -6.5 @ STL: If you like Seattle, get them now before this umber moves. I’m using this as my money line if I can find a decent number.

CIN @ IND -3: Three-start bet of the week. Colts -3 at home isn’t a bad number at all. Bengals are without two of their top receivers with A.J. Green ruled out and Marvin Jones being put on IR. Cincinnati does not play well on the road and I think the Colts will look to start building a resume for the AFC with this one. Colts -3.

MIN +7 @ BUF: This one is simple: I just don’t think the Bills should be giving anyone seven points. I’m not playing it, but it’s a whacky number for a team with no identity.

CLE @ JAX +6: Can the emotional high last with the Browns? Sooner or later they have to come back to earth, right? And sooner or later the Jags will win a game. This might be worth a cheap flyer on an outright winner but it stays out of my top picks.

NO +3 @ DET: You never know what Lions offense you’re going to get, but they have quietly built the best defense in the league. Is that what Drew Brees and Co. need to break out? I don’t think so. I’m staying away from this one and using the info in it for future weeks.

SF +7 @ DEN: Again, that’s a lot of points to give a very good football team. Look what they did to the Eagles. I like the Niners here, they may even find a way to win this game, so I’ll certainly take a whole touchdown. 49ers+7.

HOU +3.5 @ PIT: If I was to play this I think I would take the points. Pittsburgh has been inconsistent at best, but I’ve missed on them a lot this season, so it’s a no play. If you like it, try to guess the winner.

KC +4 @ SD: Dynamite value in KC here. Andy Reid is 13-2 coming out of a bye. No one does the bye better. San Diego is riding a high but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the league so far. An in division opponent is not what they want right now, and though the Chargers have built a good defense, it will be tested by Reid and his multiple weapons. I like Kansas City to win but I’ll take the points. Chiefs +4.

NYG +6.5 @ DAL: The biggest sucker bet out there is laying a touchdown here. This number is all about what the public has seen most recently: Dallas whip up on Seattle right before they all saw the Giants get their tails kicked by Philly. Don’t go with the flow. If you want to play it, take the points. I’m staying away.

MONEY LINE – For straight winners I like Seattle and Indy. If you’re looking for ‘dogs, how about Kansas City, San Francisco or the Giants? Lots of good football teams getting loads of points this week. Long shot? Jacksonville is going to win at some point.

ELIMINATOR PICK– WK 1 Philly WK 2 Green Bay WK 3 New Orleans WK 4 San Diego WK 5 Detroit WK 6 Arizona – I can’t tell you why, because I don’t know, but at the last second I switched my pick to Arizona. Part of this is knowing who else is in your pool and trying to anticipate what they’ll do. They all picked Denver, and Cincinnati. Anyway, another win for me and I’m left with some decent teams. I’m tempted to take the Patriots tonight, but the weather may be an equalizer of sorts, and it seems the Jets always play the Pats tough. Except maybe on Thanksgiving. No, this is the week I’m finally taking Seattle, I usually stay away from road division winners, but after what happened to them at home I expect the Seahawks to come out with their hair on fire, and the Rams really had no second half fight against the Niners at all, so I don’t expect much from them.

ROUNDUP: SF +7, KC +4, IND-3. Winners: Seattle, Indianapolis. UPSET ALERT: KC, JAX

REMEMBER: Do your own research. Bet your beer money not your car payment. And, as always, check back on Friday for final picks and analysis.