NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7

NFL Picks Against the Spread is a weekly column of best bets and breakdowns to give an edge to office pool players and degenerate gamblers alike. We don’t need a disclaimer about condoning gambling, but we do recommend any actual wagers you make should be the opposite of the NFL picks advice given here.

Welcome back to the NFL Picks Against the Spread column, where we usually start with a couple games to stay away from.

If there was a Super Bowl of Games to Not Bet On (and what kind of Super Bowl would that be?) it would be the Cleveland Browns -5.5 at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Don’t bet on this game. A 5.5-point spread is Vegas shrugging their shoulders and not having a clue what to do with this game. This isn’t a Super Bowl, this is a coin flip.

The other one I’d stay away from is a little more high profile. The Dallas How Bout Them Cowboys sitting at 5-1 coming off an improbable win AT Seattle are at home giving 7 points to the New York Giants of Getting Their Asses Handed to Them Last Week. Sure, watching theses teams lately, Dallas should kill them. But…. is THIS the big spot we’ve been waiting for Tony Romo to throw the critical pick? Or do they stay good all year and pull that stunt in their first playoff game? I don’t know. I just know that it’s too many points for a divisional rivalry game, with the line inflated by what these teams did last week (see Thursday Night’s Pats-Jets game for Exhibit A on how that usually works out). Stay away from this game.

Okay, on to the actual NFL Picks Against the Spread, your best bets for Week 7. This week we have two AFC showdowns and another Teaser of the Week.

Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 at San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers has been on fire, becoming the first QB to ever post a QB rating of 120 or higher in five straight games as he’s led the Chargers to their longest winning streak in five years. As hard as it is to go against San Diego right now, and despite the Chargers winning their last four games against division rival Chiefs, I’m gonna go with KC in this spot.

I’m not a huge Andy Reid fan, but he won 12 straight games after the bye-week when he was in Philly (though he’s dropped both his post-bye games since coming to KC), so I expect the Chiefs to come in rested and ready against a division opponent who just had to go the full 60 minutes in a comeback win at Oakland. The Chargers could certainly still notch the win at home, but I’ll take the 4.5 points in what should be a tight game as San Diego might be caught looking ahead to their Thursday game at Denver.

Indianapolis Colts -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Early in the season, Cincy looked like real contenders in the AFC with great balance of offense and dominating defense. Then they got killed at New England and last week missed a 36-yard field goal in their OT tie with the Panthers at home. That has to feel a bit like a loss, and playing a full “5th quarter” and then going on the road to play an explosive Colts team (off extra rest from a Thursday game) is what’s known as a “bad spot.”

I don’t know about you, but I’m not trusting my money to the Bengals in a bad spot. And all things being equal, I certainly trust the coach-QB combo of Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck over Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton. With star WR A.J. Green questionable this week, and Lewis-Dalton questionable in general, I think Luck and company will have little trouble covering a modest 3-point spread at home.

Teaser of the Week
Football fans, do you think the World Champion Seattle Seahawks will lose to the Rams in St. Louis on Sunday? Neither do I. Sure, I didn’t think they’d lose at home to the Cowboys last week. But I watched the Rams play football Monday night against the 49ers, and they’re not beating the Seahawks this week. Pair them with someone else you know will win but might not cover the spread.

Baltimore would be a good choice. They’re solid at home, and the Atlanta Falcons are really struggling in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Not a good profile to bring in to Charm City. Look for a Baltimore beatdown. But since Atlanta’s explosive offense could always score a late cheap meaningless TD to cover the spread, this is a good game to use in a teaser (moving the line 6 points in each game). So tease Seattle from -7 to -1 with the Ravens from -7 to -1. Just win baby…