10 & Out, NFL Week 8: Early AFC Playoff picture…
By Kevin Casini
The Ravens are imposing their will and again loom large over the AFC playoff picture. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
What I learned this week…
With 11,984 yards passing Peyton Manning ranks second all-time in passing yards for the Broncos. He’s played 38 games with Denver. If you have to ask who the leader is you need to stop reading this column.
Can anyone guess who leads the NFL in receptions? How about Chicago bears RB Matt Forte, with 52? Huh, I did not see that one.
Somehow between September 15th (the day after they beat the Vikings in Minneapolis) and November 15th (the day they’ll fly to Indianapolis to face the Colts on Sunday Night Football) the Patriots will only have played two road games: Monday night September 29th, when they were thrashed by the Chiefs and October 12th in Buffalo, a 37-22 win.
Told ya so…So after the injuries to Jake Locker and the lackluster (albeit not terrible) performances by one Charles D. Whitehurst, the Titans are electing to start their rookie QB Zach Mettenberger this week against. Told ya so.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugh
Bad: In the first half in Green Bay the Panthers barely hit 100-yards of total offense and needed a field goal as time expired in the 2nd quarter to go into the locker room down only 28-3. In the first quarter, against the 31st ranked run defense in the league, they mustered five (5) total yards. The NFC South is a very winnable division this year, but maybe not for Carolina. Next up, the angry Seattle Seahawks.
Ugh: The Bengals are reeling. They got stomped by Indianapolis and they look like a one-trick tiger. Without stud WR A.J. Green Cincinnati went three and out in their first eight (8) possessions Sunday. That’s putrid. And make that 107 points in three games for that defense. It may be time for Marv to talk to a realtor.
Mystery Team…The only team in the league in the Top 12 in rushing and passing offense, and rushing and passing defense.
I wanna be a Cowboy, baby…The Dallas Cowboys, man. That is for real. I thought for sure the Giants would go in there and force a let down of sorts but after their huge win against the Seahawks Dallas never wavered, scoring 7 in the 1st, 7 in the 2nd, 7 in the 3rd and 10 in the 4th quarter, consistently pounding the ball. Draft picks on offensive linemen isn’t sexy, and it’s not going to sell superboxes at the JerryDome, but you know what will? Being the best team in football. Now I don’t know if they can survive the gauntlet here without any type of pass rush (Dallas still plays the Cardinals, the Eagles twice, and the Colts) but very much in the way a young upstart Seattle team beat the New Orleans Saints in the playoffs in 2011 and then the New England Patriots early in the 2012 season, the Cowboys have shown this was coming, starting with last year’s insane 51-48 loss to the unbeatable Denver Broncos and Saint Peyton, and culminating with the win against Seattle. They may need to wheel DeMarco around during the week, but on Sundays they are all go. And in a league set up for start QBs, stud WRs and points points points, they may be doing it just a little better than anyone else.
FWIW…Since the Patriots disaster in Kansas City, Tom Brady has 914 yards passing, 9 TDs and 0 INTs, and three straight wins.
Early bead on the AFC…The Colts (5-2) have all but sewn up their division and the Ravens are looking to do the same when they visit the Bengals Sunday. A win would make them 6-2 and leave them with only one game against a winning team for the rest of the season. Baltimore plays host to San Diego in week 12.
Top Three…Browns
1. Jim Brown
2. James Brown
W2W4: Thursday Thursday THURSDAAAAYYY! Last year the Chargers did a good job against the Broncos, holding Peyton to 28, 20 and 24 points respectively in their three meetings, and you wondered if it wasn’t at least in part to former Denver offensive coordinator Mike McCoy knowing the weaknesses of that offense and pressuring them. This season may be a little different. The Broncos look reloaded, especially on defense: Denver’s defense ranked second in the league in forcing three-and-outs on 31.7% of opponents’ drives. On the flip side, only one defense (New England) has allowed a higher percentage of rushes to go for 4+ yards than San Diego. Add to that the Chargers may also be without their top two corners. They’re still a damn good team, having lost two games by a total of four points, to two good teams, but the Chargers have a short week at the worst time and against the worst opponent.
Mystery Team revealed….The Indianapolis Colts are riding a five game winning streak and, as predicted, stomped the Bengals on their way to making their first conference playoff seeding statement of the season.
Locks of the Century of the Week…Another decent week leaves me at 27-13 overall. Calling upsets (KC over San Diego and Jacksonville over Cleveland) certainly helped the bottom line. Hopefully you jumped on. Remember, check your injury reports and watch 10 & Out’s Pick 6 for the final tally, but here’s what we’re looking at today and tomorrow before phoning it in.
STL +6.5 @ KC SEA -4 @ CAR OAK +7 @ CLE
BUF @ NYJ -3 HOU -1.5 @ TEN
BAL +2.5 @ CIN IND -2.5 @ PIT
MONEY LINE…Winners I like New England again, this time over Chicago, Miami to beat Jacksonville and as an underdog, Baltimore for the outright win in Cincinnati isn’t a terrible play IF A.J. Green is still out.
ELIMINATOR PICK… WK 1 Philly WK 2 Green Bay WK 3 New Orleans WK 4 San Diego WK 5 Detroit WK 6 Arizona WK 7 Seattle – Pete Carroll screws me again. He had the Rams on the ropes. Yes, great execution on fakes by Rams special teams. Big stones by Fisher to make those calls. But Pete threw this game away: down 21-13 the Seattle scored a touchdown with 5:10 to go in the 4th quarter. A the extra point would make it a one point game, but instead, Pete elected to go for the tie with the two-point conversion. Russell Wilson’s pass floated harmlessly to the ground and the Seahawks were still down. On the ensuing drive the Rams scored almost at will, running the ball down the throats of the Seattle defense. 28-19 Rams. After getting the ball back, Seattle again scored a touchdown, and the score was 28-25 with 2:18 remaining. It made no difference if they had gone for two or not because they’d still need the ball once more and a field goal to win, so Pete kicks the extra point and it’s 28-26. But if Pete had just kicked the extra point with 5:10 left, they’d have been down eight points. Then, when they scored the last touchdown, they’d have been able to attempt a conversion to tie right then and there and wouldn’t have automatically needed another possession to win. If he thinks, in the event of a failed conversion attempt, his defense can hold the Rams offense down 21-19, then logically they can hold down 21-20, so kick the extra point. Conversions are consistently over-thought, but in this instance, it was under-thought. Seahawks lose, and I’m out of my eliminator pool. Thanks for nothin’, Pete Carroll.
REMEMBER: Do your own research. Bet your beer money not your car payment. And, as always, check back on Friday for final picks and analysis.
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