NFL Picks Against the Spread is a weekly column of best bets and breakdowns to give an edge to office pool players and degenerate gamblers alike. We don’t need a disclaimer about condoning gambling, but we do recommend any actual wagers you make should be the opposite of the NFL picks advice given here.
Oftentimes the NFL Picks Against the Spread column starts with some game to NOT bet on. Picking NFL games starts with picking which game to stay away from. The 50 bucks you save by not losing it might be the only 50 bucks you make this weekend.
This week’s Stay Away game is not the usual stinker (I’m looking at you Dolphins/Jaguars and Raiders/Browns games). My best bet for game to not bet on is Baltimore at Cincinnati. Great divisional showdown, with a Ravens -1 point spread that smells fishy. It’s a vote of zero-confidence in the Bengals from Vegas. Baltimore has been solid all year but I keep waiting for them to have an off week. Cincy started hot and has looked awful since their bye. So yea, anything can happen in this one, and there’s no value on either side. Don’t bet on this game.
On to some actual best bets for Week 8 NFL Picks Against the Spread…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Okay, this looks like the typical dud game that usually lands in the first paragraph with the Stay Away games. We’ve seen both these teams get blown out a few times, while Tampa does boast a road win at Pittsburgh (for whatever that’s worth). But this comes down to a situational play: Minnesota is playing it’s second straight road game after having to go down to the last second in a heartbreaking loss at Buffalo. Now they have to travel to play a Tampa team rested and ready out of the bye. On top of that, remember Minnesota has a rookie QB and they are still playing without their former one-man team RB Adrian Peterson… all this stuff has to catch up to them. Add all that to a Bucs team (with former Vikes coach Leslie Frazier as their D-coordinator) with an extra week to prepare, and you start to think this line is way too low. Bucs should win by at least 7 or more.
Detroit Lions -4 vs. Atlanta Falcons in London.
Here’s another one where the line is too low. I know both teams have been inconsistent, though the Lions are obviously the better team. (Insert “There’s a D in Detroit but not in Atlanta” joke here.) I could see either team being undisciplined or laying an egg because of the strange week traveling to London and getting a bit out of their routine. But the Falcons seemingly lose an offensive lineman every week, and now it’s the center and the new guy is an undrafted rookie. The Lions boast the top-ranked defense, featuring a dominant front. Not a good matchup for Alanta, gonna be a long day for Matt Ryan. Both are dome teams playing outdoors on grass, so that might slow things down which favors the Lions recent style of play. Lions 24, Falcons 13.
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 at Arizona Cardinals
I’ve been kinda naysaying the Cardinals all year and they just keep winning. I crack jokes about Carson Palmer and he’s now 10-3 in his last 13 games as a starter. But I think a rested Chip Kelly team off the bye week will bring the Cardinals back to earth for this week. The Eagles might not boast big names or great stats on defense (maybe they do, I can’t look up everything), but they pass the eyeball test. They get after the QB and they get off the field on 3rd down. Philly also has game changing special teams to flip games in an instant. The fact that the Cardinals are 5-1 and not even favored by 3 at home tells you that they might not win this game. Take whatever points you can get with the Eagles, but I think they win outright.
TEASER OF THE WEEK: Bears/Pats OVER 44.5 with Indy/Pitt OVER 43.5
A teaser lets you move the line 6 points in your favor in the two games you tease together. This week let’s look at two over/unders. The Bears and Patriots each have veteran QBs facing pourous defenses. Jay Cutler will be looking to prove Chicago’s locker room arguments and offensive problems are overblown and he and his weapons should fare well vs. the Patriots defense (hold the Mayo). Meanwhile, Chicago hasn’t stopped anyone lately and Tom Brady is at home and playing well as of late. The total is a bit high at 50.5, so we’ll tease it down to 44.5 by pairing it up with the Indy at Pittsburgh over. Andrew Luck should pick apart this subpar Steelers defensive unit while Big Ben’s home cooking was on display Monday night as Leveon Bell, Antonio Brown and company have gotten into a groove. Yes, Pittsburgh had a bit of “luck” on their side with all the turnovers, but this matchup has the makings of a shootout. The total for this one is set accordingly at 49.5, because Vegas knows everything I just said. But once we tease it down to 43.5, we just need a 24-20 game to hit the Over (and 24-21 or better sends the Patriots/Bears over).